Listen to our latest Investing Matters Podcast episode 'Uncovering opportunities with investment trusts' with The AIC's Richard Stone here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
In June of 2024, Solg is going to come cap in hand to the market for some serious cash........or go under.
When that time arrives - the chinese will buy Solg out @ Cascabel - for a song.
My guess (with premium): 20-25p/share.
Watch and weep.
Z
BBG - I think you are misunderstanding Enterprise Value.
It just adjusts MCap for existing debt/cash resources etc.
It DOES NOT reflect a value of in ground resources ($100bn+).
A Discounted Cashflow basis has two key parts:
i) a discount rate - to reflect cost of funding/interest as well as any risk premium - i.e. additional return due to riskiness by country
ii) cashflows, i.e. projected revenues to discount back - sales less expenses, as modelled under mine production profile and grades
How do you get to an EV of $3bn?
Anon - the phased plan is looking to bring Capex in around $1bn. If someone wanted to go more aggressive in line with previous iterations of the PFS then you're probably looking at $3.3-3.5bn accounting for inflation since the studies were produced.
And I believe that is why we are where we are. You've got many stakeholders, primarily investors, and looking at NPV and resource in the ground and asking for 70-100p. Then you have the suitors who I'm guessing aren't willing to pay that.
That pushes us into this middle ground we find ourselves where we then need to complete more work to push their valuation closer to ours.
I think a few people envisage some frantic bidding war which would surprise me still. I suspect many teams at these majors are trying to find the right level to pitch at and it'll be difficult because anything 20p or less will be laughed at our side and anything 60p or more will be dismissed their side.
So the battleground may be that slice in between.
Thank you anon... the misses isn't as confident as me... thank god she loves me!
Enterprise value is everything when there is no underlying revenue to produce a DCF.
Our EV is circa what? $3B? There we go..... and the plebs will say we should apply a discount however that is not relevant when determining the value of generational assets like Cascabel...
Todays share price value means nothing... when the first bid arrives, we will see who else wants this!
Based on what BBG?
What's your rationale?
Oh, well done on that 1 mill shares. You should do very well out of that.
EV is meaningless to some extent. You still need to find a buyer willing to lay out 4.5 billion (I think?) Capex.
And it's like I've said anyway, we're now on PFS3. There's a big reason why it's taking so long and I believe at best case, they're struggling to make the figures work.
I honestly hope I'm wrong.
As for Mather, he was doing what he does best. Talk a good game on behalf of the company. I really like that bloke, as I know what he wants and that's a sense of achievement. It's not about the money for him, imo.
As opposed to the present lot. I honestly believe they have no affinity with the company and it's purely the money.
Autobots are destroying this...
In the last 3 hours, 68 AT and 14 Off book
Thats 83% small change, meaningless trades steadily pushing the SP down all afternoon...
No one gives a hoot regarding current SP. Its manipulated.
BHP havent bid because they know they will be in a major fight
I have finally accumulated over a 1m shares so i am super pumped and proud. this was a goal of mine but its a drop in the ocean compared to other holdings i know...
i believe this will be 40p before first bid... then 200% from their via an auction...
#capitalism
Haha, good point. You'd have 12 times where we are now, so £6000k minus the 5 to BBG.
BBG, you're on! :-)
No ta. I'll stick with the 56p that I've previously mentioned a few times. I hope you're right.
Mind you, the amount of time it'll take for these to do it, you may well be bang on the money. It'll be worth about 20p in today's money.
Anyway I'm not deramping anything. I don't need to. All I've done is quote facts. The price is falling every day and there is nothing to arrest that fall, as it stands. The market has had it with this company until something material happens.
I would take that bet and put £500 into buying Solg shares at this price and trouser the other £4500
Win win
I'll bet you £5k it exceeds 100p
120p?
Not a hope in hell, imo.
And yes, I'm an investor, who's probably been in this a lot longer than you.
Tesla1, you don't own even one unit here. you are here only to disrupt
Not everyone lives in cloud cuckoo land, like you 🤣
This will be sold for 120p so why are you complaining? Are you even an investor or just a paid deramper
They'd stop with these update RNS'. I think they're only annoying the market even more.
The transparency here is embarrassing and is only killing the SP more and more every day.
I'm struggling to believe that I average sub 10p and am 23% down. I really feel for anyone who is in at over 30p etc.
Www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/short-positions-daily-update.xlsx
Still showing open at 0.5%.
Also as a shareholder I would expect to be able to see a list of all concessions held (original SOLG + new CGP)...
... which are the priorities, which are in the development pipeline and which are grassroots etc.
I notice c$4m of exploration expenditure was written off in 2023 for 'concessions that were surrendered'.
Where, and why?
Constant guesswork at the moment.
From MD&A, covering June-22 to June-23:
Cascabel c$30m
Regionals c$16m
All very well having these incredible concessions. A reason lots have invested here. But do something with them - a paultry $16m over a year shows how little has been progressed...
... hence the 'recycled' RNSs with previous drilling or rock sample results.
Add, a lot has been made of solg poor performance but your right it's time for the Ecuadorian government to deliver too.
Noboa has a small window to get things done and needs to get cracking.