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red, if bidders wouldn't wait until the merger was complete, why have we bothered doing it at all, and why haven't the bidders bid up until now? The merger is the key here. It makes ownership of Cascabel and therefore a takeover much simpler.
Quady, I don't think Solgold is spending any money whatsoever evaluating the use of hydroelectric power at Alpala. Not a cent.
SM I cant see why a bidder would bother waiting until the merger is complete///
OK so things would be cleaner after 9 January, but...
! Although if somebody bids now, CGPs 15% is outside, but I think they would be left in a vulnerable position whereby the bidder could hold them to ransom to sell the 15% at a knockdown price...otherwise they could simply go ahead with the intention to build, and where would CGP find the $50m plus to pay for what they already owe, at the time construction begins...31.12.2023?
2 If somebody bid now, unless it was a knockout bid, say 125p or more, there would surely be at least one counterbid and the 'battle' would go well beyond 9 January before any takeover was complete. I doubt that a determined bidder would be too worried about the 'juggling'...
SharketMare what are you on about.
The hydroelectric is in the strategic review.
You know that thing that's happening that everyone says is proof of a sale.
When in fact it's completely the opposite.
Ask yourself why is Solgold spending money doing this.
What do you disagree with Copperpot?
I don't always see eye to eye with Redknight but nothing in that post is wildly out of place.
Specialist funds do arb mergers and other special situations. That's a fact. SolGold's transaction with CGP should provide an opportunity for them.
Really good at it that should read. That's regarding your 10.11am post.
Your desperation is pityful.
RK, you should write children's fiction books! You'd be really at it!
Talatum...
"The market "is people panicking and selling as the price goes down and shorters selling, while others who plan to profit from the takeover are hoovering up on the other side...
Now it makes sense...
Although the volumes in CGP have been poor that dioesn't mean that sizeable transactions haven't taken place...
As I mentioned before...there may well be many CGP shareholders who don't want to exhcn age their CDN denominated, Toronto listed shares for sterling denominated shares listed in London.
So supposing they find a buyer who just happens to be a 'merger arbitrageur'...the latter buys the CGP shares at below full value, meanwhile shorting the target company i.e. SOLG...
Then closes the short before the merger goes through and pockets the difference...
redknight1, I am worried though . Your and others view about sale is not shared by the market as even today the price has dropped when there is a sea of blue on my watchlist.
Agree, brilliant post RK.
1981Investor - the person advising on the strategic review has said it will be "fast and smart". What that means is naturally open to interpretation, but given the pace at which things have moved since our former CEO was ousted, I would be disappointed if we hadn't heard news of some sort of value unlocking event by the end of June next year.
There is also the possibility that things move much quicker. As soon as the merger is complete, Jiangxi might table an offer for the whole business, which would force BHP and/or NCM to respond if they want to own Cascabel.
Finally, the outcome of the strategic review might result in the situation posited by Bozi, in which the regional licenses are spun off from Cascabel into a NewCo, and SOLG retains ownership of Cascabel. At that point, we'd essentially be selling the asset + any value assigned to the equity we've built up under the Solgold name on the ground (not a lot, but important given the country we're operating in). Investors would also be given free shares in NewCo to maintain an interest in the regional plays.
That is decent sleuthing Redknight.
Please stick to posts of this standard.
So heres a Christmas conspiracy theory...
Maxit got 23 million shares...
0.5% shorted by XIB Asset Management is 11.5 million shares...half the placed shares...
So just suppose the shorted shares were to hold the SP down (using Algos) so that those 'in the know' could fill their boots, knowing that the short could be closed by taking up half the 23 million at 16.3p..?
And heres a coincidence...
Maxit Capital 181 Bay Street Toronto
XIB Asset Management 200 Bay Street Toronto...
Sean McNulty...Merger-Arbitrage specialist...
And heres an interesting article...
https://thehedgefundjournal.com/making-event-driven-strategies-work-in-latin-america/
"An example of this is in the area of merger arbitrage. In developed markets, information is so widely disbursed and rapidly acted-upon by such a large number of investors that the spreads in a typical merger arbitrage deal rapidly narrow to the point that currently it is an uninteresting strategy. In Latin America, however, merger arbitrage deals have been so few and far between that they have simply not attracted the attention of the vast majority of investors. As such, when they do occur, few players are in a position to seize the opportunity, or to properly evaluate the risks involved. Consequently, the spreads tend not to be arbitraged out as they would be in more developed markets. For those that are properly structured to take advantage of this, the returns can be quite attractive."
Interesting and I hope you are right about the signs of a sale being there. I invested on the news of the merger because i hope that means a sale. Do you have a time in mind. Do you think it will be weeks months or years?
Hey I might be wrong but all the signs are there. We invest based on what we believe…. I believe it will be sold , some believe it will go to production.
If I thought we were even going to attempt the production route I’d sell straight away.
It’s the vitriol that wears you down. Some idiot claiming he’s been right all along when the truth is no one is right or wrong until this story finally plays out.
What does that mean DreamBoatWarrior? Are you correct about a sale happening soon do you reckon? Hope so as some people talking about how others are just ramping has made me a bit worried but you seem sure it is going to sell soon for a good price?
They only need to come true once
Well said, Sh4re. Lot of armchair experts here but no matter how much they repeat their points they don't come true. Long wait still here i reckon but hopefully not too long ATB
I completely agree addickt...for the time being they won't be sold, in order to protect the AGM votes...
Then surely held in Treasury as there is no need to sell them while someobody is prepared to hoover up shares in the market...
Why don't we all just agree to disagree OR just agree that NOBODY is right, i.e. that the company itself if unclear as to what happens next... hence the strategic review. Yes there are stakeholders who may WISH for XYW to happen, doesn't mean it will happen. Look at the reality...
Funding for Cascabel - keeping that option open
Investigating hydroelectric and cheaper options - keeping that open
Get rid of CEO - streamlines company for a potential sale OR a major disagreement
Maxit and others - clearly want a sale and positioning
Streaming investors - obviously want production else they would invest elsewhere (yes I know they get their money back if no production but that is many years down the line.
Recent investment - probably the start of wider intent to gain more shares ... possible takeover
So this is out of any single parties hands to fully steer / influence / control.... as a wise man once said... If you cannot influence it, and cannot control it.... do not worry oneself about it. :-)
Sharket…. If this gets sold tomorrow he’ll more likely claim it was what he predicted all along, and probably believe it too
Quady, you are clinging to the hydroelectric power quote for dear life. Given that the company has stated that it is no longer intending to produce an amended PFS or proceed to DFS at Cascabel, what is the output you're expecting to see here?
Your desperation to be right about taking this to production is bordering on the pitiful. You're ignoring the myriad of facts that all point to disposal or sale of the business, and when properly challenged, as Bozi did the other day, you simply disappear into the ether.
I wonder if you'll ever post on here again the day SOLG formally announces that another company will be taking Cascabel to production, whether through the company having been bought out, or the asset spun out and sold.
Addinct … no we don’t need it but it could easily be used as a tool to push BHP over the edge
Quady… until Solgold take this to production (as you always claimed they would though you’ve recently been squirming to take a different position)
You will be wrong too …. There will also be no JV
DBW you have been constantly wrong and still are.
We know we don't have a bid or interested party.
We have raised money which is ring fenced for Cascabel, cannot be spent on anything else.
We have now raised 36million to advance drilling.
None of this is to do with a bid.
Add to that, that we have a strategic review that is looking at hydroelectric and a cheaper start up for Alpala.
This is looking at how to bring Alpala to production.
That's what the facts point to, and we have the evidence.