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I posted initially somewhere below that I was of the opinion that the SP would follow the previously set pattern of rising peaks and from those humps then subsequently fall into a temporary short term trough before rinse and repeating - because that's what it's being doing non-stop since mid April until tonight's close.
Wasn't expecting such a good day. Really strong.
It's caused me to re-examine those 5 humps and I'm more inclined to think it's just set off on a trail to it's 6th hump summit!
That was it, the trough! Was expecting a dip to 44p to maybe 42p max at most - with 40p being a highly unlikely visit as a scalded cat touch point - as it's the 200 day MA.
In hindsight, the first and second peaks hardly descended at all, and it looks like a similar effect tonight as that's what's happened to this hump. That was it - the trough - that 47/46 the other day - that was the low point, IMO.
Was expecting lower. But a strong day today has ended that - most likely.
So it's off on another hike. Said I wasn't happy that it didn't first close on 52p, humpff! Wanted a cheap top-up.
just out of curiosity, what makes you think today was such a strong day? seemed a modest close in comparison to +7% earlier in the day? seeing as all markets were up today and had strong closes this seems quite average? Not complaining imo but just curious about your thoughts
Last 2 days candlestick pattern performance. The prior trading day's candlestick closed higher than the day prior to that. This close tonight, was even better - closing yet higher than Friday's and even intradaying up to 51p - which was higher than the actual peak close.
2 days each closing higher. Wrong direction for a bear run.
All IMO of course. Could be wrong, but I'm very doubtful now of it falling to low 40's.
Thanks Velo. It seems to me it desperately wants to push above 51p but we shall have to see what the comings days bring.
Might we get it today :)
You're welcome Stoodio. Only right I should reveal my initial buy-in tranche into SLP.
- As you are a holder of one of the lowest entry points into this stock at single pence and still holding, then I think I am on firm ground by claiming to hold the highest entry point and still holding - and that's 57p! ! !
Go on, any one out there beat that and bought in higher? Don't think so, LOL!
Bought late Feb/ early March and was in profit for awhile until the market commenced its big retrace.
Chose it from screen filtering of the 'CANSLIM' strategy - my 2020 methodology year (Google it, to save my posting length)
It also highlighted the excellent POLY too, for any Poly holders out there; but I decided SLP was the stronger on balance sheet metrics - but both are ace, regardless.
Getting a top-up at say circa 42.9 would have brought my average screaming down to 49.9 which would have pleased and sated my desire to get my ass hauled in, from hanging out there in the breeze. Fear prevented me from picking up mid 20's in mid March.
Trendlines told me to go for it within days of mid March - but brain was in a box at that time. No excuses - my eyes refused - simply refused - to believe what the trend lines were telling me about SLP. Doh!
----------------
Beginning to think these recent regular peak and trough patterns are coming to an end, as they seem to be narrowing dramatically in the fall from the peaks. The SP is still trending bullishly and I only experct further gains from here until otherwise relieved of that opinion via the trend lines, but it might be on the verge of rising further in a differing pattern formation, as yet unknown.
But defo these past 5 or 6 peak/troughs episodes seem of late to be narrowing the downside, rendering it an obsolete decision maker, as the spread eats well into it if using as a top-up opportunity.
Hi Velo
It’s nice to see that not everybody bought at 6p lol but I’m with you as I also bought at around 57p.
Having seen at the time that the company was buying back shares in the region of 48p this gave me some confidence and I did then dip my toe in the water at around 27p and 30p to bring my average down to around 40p so I’m showing a nice profit in a relatively short space of time.
Just how far this can go I’m not sure but hopefully with not too disastrous 4q results and an increased dividend gives me hope for the future.
What are your thoughts on this as the figures I’m looking at make no sense as to the current share price.
Velo I appreciate your ongoing analysis on the charts. Don't worry old son 57p pfffff. It's worth a helluva lot more and value will out in the end. It has to. Onwards, sideways and upwards from here :)
Back to work in SA and SLP profits will be racking up again.
The demand from China will also be restarting.
So where next for this sp.
My trend line seems to predict 60p / 63p as the next resistance point but it could just break through that once the likely divi ' news is provided. No debt , plenty in the Bank and minimum Covid risk in tailings ( unlike close proximity mining).
What is there not to like about SLP.
Now it is time for others to do their own research.
Buy on the dips, IMO, it will not be around at 50p much longer after this sp consolidation.
In early March the IC and others were forecasting an sp of around £1.20 as fair value.
Just look at the P/E.
Patience pays.
C.
(Part 1 of 2)
" What are your thoughts on this as the figures I’m looking at make no sense as to the current share price. "
-------------------------
Firstly - it's a given that sentiment RULES share price - not fundamentals. Or as Buffett more correctly labels sentiment - fear and greed :)
So two things to hold in mind:
Fundamentals can be poor or good that's one thing.
Secondly the share price is independent of fundamentals; sometimes it makes no sense and that's because the market maybe is, rightly or wrongly, discounting future performance that often we PI's just can't see or agree with. TA and charts take care of telling where sentiment is. And accountancy grade fundamental analysis packages take care of fundamentals (not TA or charts).
On fundamentals I agree - SLP is top drawer, not a cloud in the sky. Don't know the management but I can tell from the balance sheet they are above average operators. So a good starting base if the fundamentals are right. It's not the be all and end all, it's the start. Make a mistake in your entry buying-in point and good fundamentals will always rescue you - over the longer term.
However, charts will tell you if those fundamentals are just being missed by either insufficient brokerage analyst coverage being under the radar, or the market has a dim view of certain sectors at certain cycles in time, be they political or economic.
So that IMO is why many lament that the share price makes no sense nor reflects the value in the fundamentals.
The linear progression by the SP using charts is also top notch for SLP. No worries there.
So my thoughts on future price? Truth is I don't go down that street. If the fundamentals are good I let the trend lines run the SP - until they decide to change direction.
I do though love judging a quick SP calc by the industry average PE ratio. And on that score there's a ton more meat on the bone for SLP to achieve in the future. The forward P/E ratio for SLP is a really low bargain busting value of P/E 2.39
- Have you ever seen lower? Cheap or wot? Or cheap for a reason? Are these sectors out of fashion or something (like recovering from a market crash)?
I don't know, but let's test SLP's forward P/E against the FTSE market and it's own industry average as P/E's have fallen dramatically since the big March retrace. The whole market average is a lowly P/E 11.3 (was 12 and 13 months ago) but still that's way higher than SLP, and it's own industry median is P/E 7.63
And there we have something. The whole FTSE market is valued higher than SLP and the industry that SLP operates in, also values every Tom Dick and Harry higher than SLP.
If SLP were to just be re-rated to the plain vanilla average of the Tom Dick and Harry competitors then by price to earnings ratios alone, the SP would have to more than triple to 160p+ just to be "average"
- and SLP's balance sheet and trading accounts are anything but 'average'.
Continues > > >
( Part 2 concludes )
And there we have something. The whole FTSE market is valued higher than SLP and the industry that SLP operates in also values every Tom Dick and Harry higher than SLP. If SLP were to just be re-rated to the plain vanilla average of the Tom Dick and Harry competitors then by price to earnings ratios alone the SP would have to more than triple to 160p+ just to be "average"
- and SLP's balance sheet and trading accounts are anything but 'average'.
Simply Wall Street (10 free goes per month) gives fair value as - 178p
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/aim-slp/sylvania-platinum-shares
I also have access to half a dozen valuation algo's but they are all over the place - but could drag them out of slumber if you wanted a variety of price valuations to chew over.
I just go with the prevailing trend, not the SP value. And the prevailing trend is upwards and onwards (Currently)
Your comments are a good read Velo. Nice analysis of price/earnings across FTSE and sector.
Maybe the primary business location in SA and business registration in Bermuda has some impact on 'sentiment' in that investors dont view them as an honest business being registered in a fiscal haven? There must be many instances of this across the market.
I have a holding in Steppe Cement. They too operate primarily in Kazakhstan but are registered in Malaysia. Again great fundamentals, exceptional divi but very low share price P/E of about 6. Closer to FTSE average but still low.
Cheers Velo...great analysis.
Should you get the opportunity to get those algos out would be very interested to see the numbers generated.
but we've seen this film before, one day you wake up and its 90p
either that or we are all seriously missing something
Thanks Wh/out,
Steppe Cement - yet another quality stock that the CANSLIM screen threw up for great earnings. Let that one slide because the trend was bearish from Jan onwards and still is
(but hmm looks to be coming out of a flat base - always a good omen if it is indeed a flat base exit)
then almost March and thought never going to take up this counter-intuitive buying in at a high, malarky if I don't get a move on this year. So bought in late Feb/March with SLP virtually days before a market crash :(
Algo's - okay later; off for a cuppa :)
Well deserved Velo :)
"either that or we are all seriously missing something" - you may be missing:
1. the manufacture of catalytic converters is / will reduce significantly this year, and
2. although SA is re-opening for business "after" the virus, the actual number of covid cases (in Pretoria in particular) is going through the roof right now. Maybe SLP will have to shut down operations again as the gold mine next door has done? Just look at where SA is on the covid curve: it's just ramping up, and it's likely to get worse as SA moves into the cooler and drier winter period... (cold & dry weather + no-lockdown = ideal conditions for the virus to spread)
rommcdonald. If you read back only a matter of around 20 posts these 2 issues are discussed numerous times albeit indirectly. Caught your eye though, first time you've posted on this thread and reminding people of facts they already appreciate.
"discussed numerous times albeit indirectly"? *albeit indirectly*?! LOL
"first time you've posted on this thread" - yes, so what? I guess you've been posting on this thread before SLP was founded, right?
"reminding people of facts they already appreciate" - I suppose you are "the people"?! The sad thing is, if I would have said - the share price will be 100p by July... you would have raved about my post... sad
Criticism of regular posters intelligence poorly disguised as realism or constructive feedback. That being your 1st post is just trolling the message boards to massage your ego.
Both of your comments are just obvious. The mystery is why shares fraught with much more risk than SLP and **** poor fundamentals are rebounding miles this week but a solid share is pretty slow progress. If you want to remind people of the obvious risks they're taking on trades or investments there are many many more valid boards to be posting flippant remarks at present. You may well be the clown your name suggests.
Hi Whippetout!
The wider stock market is also blowing my mind at the moment. There are plenty of debt-laden companies with busted business models whose shares have risen 50% over the last month. I'm really puzzled by the phenomenon, but not about to climb on the bandwagon!
Two points on burger boy's posts:
1) Yes, catalytic converter production (in numbers) will be down this year. But loadings of PGMs in each catalytic converter produced are increasing thanks to China 6, India 6, and Europe 6 emission regulations. Also, mine production and recycling of PGMs is falling. The palladium and rhodium markets are still sellers' markets. Links have posted on this board to various pieces of research from Norilsk Nickel, JMAT and others backing this up.
2) Nothing is without risk, of course. But a well-run debt-free cash-rich low cost surface tailings retreatment operator is a heck of a lot less risky than most comparables.