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Maybe a false alarm? "Symptoms linked to the omicron coronavirus variant have been mild so far, according to a Covid-19 adviser to the South Africa government and the Pretoria doctor who first sounded the alarm about the new strain"
Yes, looking tht way. Noticed the futures markets for the USA, UK, europeme, particularly Germany, opened strongly across all international markets at 11:00am.
Half an hour later they've all increased further quite noticeably.
It would appear the high amount of HIV community in SA are being mentioned as more at risk, where for everyone else this:
"Dr Schoub added that, while research is still being done on the effectiveness of vaccines against Omicron, "we can be fairly comfortably optimistic" that jabs will protect against severe disease.
Well that's new - the first reports that this new strain is mild - so far.
And the futures have responded by opening v bullishly and increasing so far.
- Not even an hour yet since the futures opened for the new week so early doors yet.
"....opened strongly across all international markets at 11:00am."
-------------
Ruddy auto-correct - 11pm tonight - not am !
Anyway, bodes well for tomorrow morning. Not a single futures market is down - all bullish so far.
and the tea leaves were wrong (again)...
It would be tempting to say that there's probably money to be made by simply taking the opposing position to the technical analysis brigade, but they're basically rain dancing, so you might as well flip a coin.
The trouble is there's no good news coming out of S Africa and there's also been a disaster at one of Impala's mines in Rustenburg due to mudslides
quote news24.com Five mineworkers were missing on Sunday following a mudslide at a South African platinum mine northwest of Johannesburg, operator Impala Platinum (Implats) announced.
Seven employees were working at the bottom of a shaft at the mine in Rustenburg, "when the area became inundated as a result of a mud rush," Implats said in a statement.
Tea leaves my rrrs!
- Futures indicate overnight trading and often but not always, give a good indication of sentiment when markets actually open.
All UK markets are currently UP (FTSE 1.6%+) in line with futures before markets actually opened.
Some people will deny the truth to push their own agenda. Repeat, all UK markets are UP. That's all that was highlighted with the implication the sentiment may spread around in general.
SLP has its own issues and missed out on this general market bounce today.
Not good if this is your only share - but it's boosted my portfolios after Black Friday's disaster.
Some people are just beyond the pale and should be recognised as such.
Well, all UK markets from Aim upwards all closed the day up bullishly; but by day's end, gone was the general circa 1.5% market gain with them all closing just a shade under 1%.
The US markets are currently where UK markets were all day at 1.6% up, with a few hours left before they close.
You're only supposed to expect the open, to on average, mostly reflect the overnight futures sentiment which they did to a tee, but dissapointing for UK markets to drift under 1% gain by close.
Worse shame is that SLP was excluded from the generally upbeat day for UK stocks. My portfolios closed even higher by the close. Should have been similar for most others I expect.
However have you noticed the lows and highs of SLP since August?
If you have - your observations should deliver the same response for both. Intriguing.
Will post those late tonight if time, but it's suggestive of the fact that going lower than the the 80's is looking more and more a tall order since August. Whatever, has to be a limit for that continuance without some catalyst, particularly whilst the chip issue remains unresolved.
Will briefly elaborate later on, but see for yourself in the meantime - if interested :)
(Part 1 of 2)
First, the current sentiment trends in the SP, particularly since early November, are bearish.
And trends have been consistently bearish since May's ATHigh. That's the current position.
Despite a false positive bullish day last Thurs followed by a very bearish reversal last Friday, the trends are unmoved - they remain currently bearish.
- - - -
No getting away from that, the truth - so do bare that in mind.
What follows is an observation. It would be rash to turn it into a bullish forecast.
The answer to my earlier question is that since the ATLow occurred in August (ATLow since after the year's high in May, that is) the lows that followed after August, have been higher and the highs have also been higher
- the very definition of an uptrending stock, is it not: higher highs and higher lows?
Will it develop into something?
You'd be forgiven for thinking that the SP has been nonstop falling, but only since August, has the SP has been doing the direct opposite - via a roller coaster ride.
Consider:
The SP after dropping steadily from May reached a low in August of circa (1p or so) below mid 80's.
It then went on a mini bull run in the first half of September, culminating a penny or two above 100 before then descending again finalising in the 2nd half of September at circa (a 1p or two) ABOVE the mid 80's.
Into October and that low roared up to the 110 high area before descending to where we are now.
So the lows, if this truly is the floor of the latest low, are each higher than the previous lows all the way back to August.
But more tellingly, each high has been higher than the previous highs from August onwards.
Each descent back into the 80's terminates before ever reaching as low as that seen previously. And vice a versa with the highs. Suggesting that if this is the latest low (in the high 80's) then the next eventual move might be a rise to circa a little above 110?
I have my doubts after the terrible close tonight. But hope I'm wrong as it would be a neat move to confirm the higher highs, meaning the market is valuing SLP more generously and refusing to go lower than that August low.
( Don't take my word for it, check out the price history yourselves :)
I would end it there under the guise of let it be and see what develops but tonight's close gives me the heebie jeebies.
It's possible this low is not finished and instead about to destroy all the above by breaking past all previous 80 floors.
A close in the next few days, lower than all previous 80's revisits, would confirm the above as only a random pattern and worse is yet to come.
Until then, I'll allow it some space to see if it can go on to the next rise which should propel it a little above 110. If it does it's not a recovery only a more generous rating whilst the market eyes up the chip situation. It can't be a recovery until a bullish catalyst of some sort hoves into view, be it a chip recovery or something else.
Part 2 concludes >>
. . . Until then, I'll allow it some space to see if it can go on to the next rise which should propel it a little above 110. If it does it's not a recovery only a more generous rating whilst the market eyes up the chip situation. It can't be a recovery until a bullish catalyst of some sort hoves into view, be it a chip recovery or something else.
The SP has thus far since August, refused to go lower on any re-visits back to the 80's. Will this week destroy that observation?
Will simply have to see what the outcome is.
Good observations Velo, I was already aware. I don't follow any metric of charts except for, the one you point out - higher highs, higher lows etc.
SLP will not be revisiting below 80p p/s.
Confidence? 99.8%.
Money money money.
And what's more, because i possess a very solid heavy set, I'm sticking with my December 31st prediction too :)
So it may be a pattern or it may be random and it might go up or it might go down.
A tedious load of claptrap topped off with an insult.
You really do have a fragile ego, don't you? You strike me as the sort of person that can't take the mildest of criticism without throwing a tantrum. The sort of person that goes home and takes things out on the wife. Am I close?
Stoodio, I do hope you are right, although looks like a miracle at the moment.
Chatmandu, I always value your opinion and I do completely agree with your summary below but maybe ease of the last comment. I suspect the chartists amongst us cannot predict this stock, just too many variables to manage.
So, still counting myself as a novice - How often has anyone seen the book value of a profitable company = the market cap? SLP is basically there right now (including receivables)? Doesn't that now mean any further reduction values the actual business as a negative value?
Hi stoodio what was your December prediction sorry i must have missed it. I hope this doesnt go below 80 :(
https://www.heraeus.com/media/media/hpm/doc_hpm/precious_metal_update/en_6/Appraisal_20211129.pdf#msdynttrid=swB3pJKmzm_xSI4sACX4TYtbwaYGLmJsx8li04MfBaE
Some market information at the bottom.
Interesting read hurry up and wait is what i took from that. How long would a green transition take mentioned in the platinum section of the paper take .. surely many years would be my take
I believe it was 140p
I’d settle for a squid right now!
If you don’t believe in technical analysis you don’t believe that emotions and algos driving prices. Fear and euphoria drive strange human behaviour and pattern spotting algos become self fulfilling. Personally I select shares on fundamentals and timing on technicals. Chatmandu that last sentence says more about you as a person than it does about velo.
@Tach
Given Velo's previous tantrums, and the wild abandon with which he throws around personal insults, I think I've been quite restrained. Check out his previous comments and then tell me I'm on wrong track.
You're on the wrong track
20% swings aren't too much of a concern if you are an investor not a trader.
With dividends and buybacks these can change with this cash rich company still generating a lot of profit. Just need these levels to hold and things will be just fine.
£1.40+ correct.
SLP has the ability to move up (and unfortunately sometimes down) in 20-40% swings within 2-4 week timeframes on ZERO news as the market makers know the intrinsic value here and like f king with it.
I'll be honest with you. I'll take smack bang in the middle now and suggest a 30% upswing by December 31st for a tidy little £1.26 to close the year out.