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pc01 - pls read my post below. there is nothing machiavellian, etc going on here. no one is trying to game the shares or buy back in post-tender or anything else along those lines. A smart buyer traded with a dumb seller. Period
Do we think that the 25mm shares was STTs? if so, why would they not sell some into the tender? being slightly machievellian, is it possible that STT (or whoever was the seller?) thinks Tosca will tender and that the SP will drift back post tender...and that 33p was a fair price for all the shares...all remains unclear, but O&W, you may well be right....
Tosca bought Capital's shares, not Suntrust's. In fact, Capital's selling has the been primary cause of underperformance of this share for well over a year or more as the primary fund manager at the time was forced to divest his fund of ALL positions in smaller cap companies (probably an arbitrary cutoff of anything below $500m market cap. In other words, the divestment had nothing whatever to do with the quality, or not, of any particular position, sle or otherwise). We know this has been going on because Capital, which originally held just under 40m shares, have periodically announced material reductions in their holding. Funnily enough, these reductions occurred right around a major announcement by sle, which then inevitably led to cries of 'why doesn't this share do better considering how good the news is...!' or something equivalent, often by squirrels who would love to use the seeming underperformance as evidence that crazy bulls of the share were well, crazy. The reason Capital would initiate their selling around announcements however, was likely for a much more innocent reason; namely that when major announcements are made, it tends to expand the investor base and create more liquidity. Furthermore, because we now know Capital chose to sell their balance BEFORE a tender that would very likely have allowed them to get a very material portion of their holding away at a price (46p) almost 40%(!) above where they have sold to Tosca, proves just how irrational and therefore damaging to our share price they have been for some time. The removal of this particular player is an important uplift to the very foundations of our share price full stop. [I would go further: I believe that Capital's decision a couple of years (or more?) ago to reduce/divest holdings based soley the company's market cap and/or the share's daily turnover, has been a cause of stress on AIM generally, but thats for another day and another forum].
For the record, I agree with the comment that Tosca buying this stake reduces further the possibility that it will tender.
Clearly, Tosca sees great value in Sle at these levels. There IS great value in Sle at these levels, given the mounting cash position, OML18 field investments aimed at boosting existing productivity and increasing future output, and BarryRoe npi coming into play by year end.
I am seriously wondering now how much of a shortfall in the TO will there be. And what will be management's next move to enhance shareholder value. Or is any such move merely tinkering at the edges of the real power game here?
Of all the things I was expecting to see, Tosca increasing its stake wasn't one of them! It does make 26th march very interesting indeed...I would love to see what the Chaikin Index thinks :-)
Well there we have it. An increased stake by Toscafund AM so they are surely not going to participate in the TO. I am beginning to wonder if all the $30mn of shares will actually be bought back. In any case, ToscaFund AM will likely own some 70%+ of sle after the TO. Surely they are going for a full takeover eventually.
66.46% now....what will it be after the t/o ?
66.46% now....what will it be after the t/o ?
Tosca bought Suntrusts shares? With 66% only another 9% before they can vote through most resolutions on their own.....
Holding in Company San Leon Energy plc, the AIM listed company focused on oil and gas development and appraisal in Africa, was informed on 5 March 2019 that funds managed by Toscafund Asset Management LLP held 336,171,927 ordinary shares in the Company, representing 66.46% of the issued share capital of the Company, following the purchase of 24,350,000 ordinary shares on 4 March 2019.
https://www.investegate.co.uk/san-leon-energy-plc--sle-/rns/holding-in-company/201903060700079534R/
Just wondering what are your views if the share price goes about the buyback price? What happens then? Is the Buy Back price increased or cancelled?
SB
Bandit, smart money jumping in but not I think for the SBB itself but what is expected after the SBB?
Got there a little quicker than I expected but with such a small free float and clear signals to the market the smart money will quickly jump onboard.
heh man that shakin' Chaikin of yours is some index, what's it saying today?! yesterday we were told ‘...the Chaikin Money Index has dropped below zero ... indicates a strong bear market developing..when the indicator stays below zero for a sustained period of time…it shows a strong downtrend.’ it has to be said, as strong downtrends go, our recent ascent from below 20p to above 39p must be one of the worst on record. you know Afa, whether it's your various 'news' reports or your 'financial' indices, all predicting doom for us, you've quite a record now of delivering a most positive affect on our actual news and on the SP - deliberate or otherwise, keep up the good work! (i've got you on alert now). i don't suppose anything in the Nigerian papers on this?
Bandit-i must admit that the next move after the T/O has settled, all depends on the amount of ii participation (if any at all) in the offer, and to what degree PI's are taken out of the game, by having all of their tendered stock taken from them.
-There is, i suppose, the possibility that the Co will not be offered the whole 50 mill, and will have cash left over.-This will be boosted by a further payment on our loans, which is due to arrive even as the company is writing the cheques on the 29th for the T/O.
-Having offered $30 mill for the T/O by 29th March, we will be getting $18 mill back again on 1st April (plus any cash that may not have been spent in the T/O) , leaving the co once again with a very strong cash position, and I'm sure you're right, that it's a question of, when, rather than, if, more of that cash is directed back towards shareholders.
-IF (and it's only an IF), the co do not get all the stock they are after, will they then come back into the mkt with another offer (at a higher price ??), ---or maybe even pay a cash Divi.
-"along with other news in the pipeline "-couldn't agree more here, maybe an update on our proposed new pipeline and FSO,---updated production figs,-- new wells ect.
-Either way, for now I can see no reason to be selling at anything under 46p, and depending on the outcome of this offer and the level of ii participation, then maybe we should be setting our sights very much higher.
Where can i buy one of these? it would seem the SLE stock has done nothing other than gone up since its mention on here from our Nigerian friend? With whom I am very disappointed as he promised me I could buy shares at the end of this week at 30p...and that's not happening either....there must be some rumblings of discontent amongst the perma bears soon, surely? Talking of whom, since Alaric scared them all away we seem to be mercifully short.
The one person i really miss is B7...and my pinot noir...anyone seen him?
gazza, looking at all the buying yesterday seems like many agree. I think you should be prepared to hold for some time any shares not taken up as part of the offer albeit I believe longer term the sp >> 46p (which is most likely Tosca's view as discussed on here) .
If the sp goes much higher one might as well sell into the market ... you then have full control.
QF
Bought a chunk today at just over 35p.Will offer them for the tender process and expect to get 46p for the majority of them.Any that aren't taken up return to me and hopefully the SP will be higher than that which i have paid today.Seems like a no brainer? That said SLE have been mugging me off for years so i am very suspicious of being duped once again!
Redeyemines - very difficult to anticipate what is going to happen. Logic suggests that Tosca will not participate meaning that PI’s could be successful in tendering a big %. I expect that the market price will probably rise steadily up to date of announcement of the tender offer into the low 40’s but the direction at that point IMO will be driven by extent of participation by the big boys. They will have a pretty clear view themselves about the potential market reaction based on their decision but will also have a clearer sense than we do of the potential next steps by the company which will inform their decision now. I bought more in the market last week as I am pretty confident that as money starts to flow into the company coffers over the year it will be a question of when it is going to be returned not if, along with other news in the pipeline which will support the price at a level north of here IMO. I will wait until last minute to decide what I do with my shares based on what happens in the market and we will have a holdings notice shortly to contemplate.
PC, thanks for your thoughts-having bought in between 22-29 (well done ), then you are right to bank the profit, but that cant be said for some of our larger shareholders.
-Take out Tosca (surely they're not in this for 1p), some other large ii holdings, the Directors, and probably that 24 mill that's just changed hands, and there won't be many to take up the T/O---so maybe you will sell the whole 50%, and if that's how it reflects for other pi's, then there may well be scramble to get back in.
i've really taken to this new Chaikin one of yours, Afa. it's quite a humdinger - if i've got this right, when it says San Leon will fall, we all should rush out and buy yep? what does it reckon on the 46p tender offer? presumably that it's going to shred the SP? i haven't had such a good laugh since reading all that stuff on Sun Trust you sent us in the Nigerian newspapers.
I'm not so sure...I have been totally honest on here...I sold 15% of my stake at 36p, and am tendering 50% at 46p and then will see what happens. if I get filled in my 50%, then you may be right redeye, as it will mean the major shareholders have all held in...and they might...but if I only sell 10% or so, then it means nearly everyone has tendered and I think that'll cap the SP for the near term until we get more newsflow...but if I only get 10% away I'm pretty sure I get the chance to buy 'em back closer to 30p...
None of the above reflects my view of the company or its prospects, but I bought more than I should between 22p and 29p and taking a few chips off the table in a frontier mining/exploration stock such as this seems sensible.
--How many of you have thought about selling part (all) of your holding @46p to the T/O, and are hoping to buy them back in the mid to high 30's ??
-I would imagine that the mm's will be well aware of this, and unless you're really quick, they won't let you back in that easily, and will probably open them up around 40p for the first lucky few, and then move them up again.
Remember, most people won't get paid for any stock they sell in the T/O until the 29th, so will have to try and buy on a T ten.
-The sensible move (if you have the cash) is to buy your stock now (10% of your holding including the bit you buy now---or a larger % if you want to take the gamble), and then submit that amount to the offer.
-can't see the sp staying under 40p....especially now the seller looks like they've gone.
TR1 needs to show now with that trade.