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I don't know what's going on. I thought the deal would require a shareholder vote but apparently not, so I guess it should go through quickly when NNPC and Exxon get their act together.
Anyway, we know Exxon has a new strategy as the biggest producer in Permian (buying Pioneer for $64billion), that there's usually a break fee if a party backs out of M&A deal and I notice deal was amended in May so that the money that would normally go to Seplat because of the backdating would instead be split between Seplat and Exxon. So the longer the delay the less cash Seplat should have to find, but my guess is that Exxon should also be feeling that they are being treated fairly because they have a deal to reflect the delay and are happy to move on with their focus in shale.
SSPA amended:
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/SEPLAT-ENERGY-PLC-16256802/news/SEPLAT-ENERGY-CORPORATE-ANNOUNCEMENT-ON-SSPA-AMENDMENT-43932626/
I don't think the agreement has an expiry, but the longer the wait the closer the cash cost to Seplat falls towards zero, which presents a potential issue as there will be some influential people on Exxon's side that won't want to see the business given to Seplat for what amounts to a peppercorn.
So I have been looking through the Exxon deal that was posted on seplats website, I was searching for any kind of indication of time limits of completion that would have been attached to the original set up deal. With best intentions I cannot find it, I sort of remember was there an update or extension on the time limits to when the deal had to be completed by. If anyone can spot such info. Please would the point it out, I’m hoping as there is a little movement in the sp things maybe taking shape. Thanks H.
The next dividends goes ex in mid April and it will be either 4.2p GBP equivalent net of withholding tax or 5.7p. My view is that the 5 cent special will be repeated, so our cheque will be 5.7p in total. Then one month later, there will be another 3 cent or 2.1p net. That's almost 8p/share of dividends (6% yield) for just 4 months of holding - that's some carry. We are being paid very well for sitting on our hands while catalysts mount.
I seriously hope so. My largest position so holding my breath this will be the breakout year. I must say the lack of news developments on the big exxon purchase do have me a little concerned but not enough to trim my position
'' We believe Seplat has multiple catalysts for value uplift which remain poorly understood despite the share price outperformance this year. Based on new modelling, we provide detailed insights into these catalysts. Most certain are improved operational reliability and the start-up of the ANOH gas project. Completion of the MPNU acquisition and conversion to the new PIA terms could be transformative while enhanced corporate governance and the improved outlook for Nigeria add supportive context. Seplat is on a discount rating to peers and on compelling forward valuation multiples with upside of 32%-91% to our initial NAV estimates, excluding the potential transformational value from the MPNU and PIA uplifts. ''
https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1745102909778378926
Ascending channel from Mar 2020 back to 150p by the looks of it.
All in anticipation of news of course which should drive it back to 250p. Doubling of assets double sp and coincides with the ATH’s.
Funny how these things play out sometimes.
Usual caveats
Trek
Perky again today, indicative balance of trades is buys albeit low volumes. I think some PI’s are getting in ahead of newsflow.
Went down on low volumes, back up on low volumes. Typical of this market.
Shares move disproportionately on low volumes to generate other trades so everyone gets paid. There’s no reward for a position of hold especially if it’s the majority of investors that are just sticking! So the MM shifts the stock around to generate some interest!
Usual caveats
Trek
Hi Superiore,
Thanks for posting. I hadn’t seen it before. I tried to paste and copy an extract from the growth section to here but the ppt is locked.
Suffice to say I think anyone buying these would be well aware of the cash position and growth prospects!
Must say I have been bracing myself for a dip below 120 but it seems to be perking back up again and indeed it’s held up very well.
This year could be transformational for SEPL and that’s without the divestments! So much landing over the next twelve months that has been years in the making. Most importantly for me is that the BoD are intent on the ops translating into higher dividends!
The divestment of course would be icing on the cake and imo propel the sp significantly!
Usual caveats
Trek
Sapele - typo, of course not a NGC issue. A very good development project.
Dont recall seeing this one before, must have missed it. Looks very strong. No 1 pick for 2024 (as it was for 2023 and 2022 ...)
https://www.seplatenergy.com/media/wwtesqce/investor-presentation-8-november-2023.pdf
When do we here more from NGC on this issues ?
Anoh - OB3 pipeline; river crossing grouting & tunneling continues. Completion of pipeline installation rescheduled to end 2023.
Spur line; poor weather, deterioration of security situation in recent quarter. Completion targeting end 2023
Sapele - Project 75% complete.
Plant upgrade will increase capacity by 85 MMscfd and will enable delivery of export-standard gas
LPG processing module will open new markets for LPG products
Three out of four compressors on the Sapele Accelerated Gas project have now been commissioned
Plant commissioning in 2024
.......based on past 12 months and assuming they continue to pay the same divi + specials that is
A growth share (hopefully) with circa 9% net divi after tax. What's not to like?
Added 5k here - the dividends alone meet my hurdle rate lol
Great news! Increased dividend stream coming up for SEPL!
I was looking at the trade spread which was less than 0.5p. I thought that’s odd. Then I saw the RNS!
Just added 2k shares. Nigeria is a high growth market and this will be extra revs for sepl!
Usual caveats
Trek
Lagos and London, 3rd January 2024: Seplat Energy Plc is pleased to announce that the ANOH gas plant installation works reached mechanical completion on 29th December 2023, in line with the revised timetable.
They sure are taking their time getting this over the line
Sapele (85mmcfd) is similar size to ANOH (80mmcfd). Capital Access report stated that ANOH should offer US$50m of gross annual profit.
But Saple is an upgrade from 60 MMscfd and to export quality gas (lng), so won't add like ANOH but I believe there's a shortage of LNG in Nigeria so maybe get a decent price.
Also from the Capital Access report:
"On that basis we forecast total production to grow from 44.1kboed in 2022 to 66.4kboe in 2026 for CAGR of 10.8%. Of the absolute growth we model, around 10% comes from higher gas production as a result of the Sapele gas plant
upgrade and Flares Out programme, around 30% comes from higher uptime in liquids production, largely due to the AEP, and the balance comes from the start-up of raw gas supply to the AGPC plant from OML 53 (Figure 24)."
I have looked and wondered about the new gas facility at sapele, I seem to recall there was a $250 million investment, this was to be commissioned in December completed by January 24, I have looked on seplats rns feed etc and can’t find any reference to this. This is quite a step forward I think it was to supply a great deal more lpg to the market, can anyone find the revenue streams this may generate, because I can’t, might be my grey matter playing up again ! Thanks regards H.
Welcome back Temple lets hope we get a positive result before or when the next results come out next month
I got 52p in 2020 .. a couple of times ... May and August/September .... Bought a small number today ... day traded a bit the past 6 months but mostly out - looking for bigger gains elsewhere ... and a drop here .... this share has indeed held up well.
Such is life.
GLA and happy new year.
Happy
tom111,
the london stock exchange closes at 12:30 on friday 22 december and will re-open at 08:00 on wednesday 27 december.
as the old saying goes in the construction game : friday is known as p.o.e.t's day:
****ed off early tomorrows saturday.
have good xmas everyone and look forward to reading your comments next year.
Hi everyone, I just want to thank seatank,trek,temple and countless others that provide information, insight and debate for seplat. I have been here for a while and first noticed this share when seplat bought out eland oil. I have a small holding probably compared to others but very happy with my holding producing steady gains and of corse a healthy divi. It hasn’t been an easy share to watch, sometimes despairingly nail biting ! But I soon realised this has great potential. Anyhow may I wish you all a great Christmas and a prosperous new year. Regards H.
Obviously false info on Google
Market closed tomorrow for holidays