Sapan Gai, CCO at Sovereign Metals, discusses their superior graphite test results. Watch the video here.
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Terry,
Fleet revenue tends to increase just over $2m a year. So I've assumed increases of $3m a year for the next 4 years.
That includes the Cat licence revenue as they bundle it all together in results.
However given Gen 3 and aftermarket that should be very conservative.
But Fleet has been pretty predictable recently with about 10,000 added per year, and Gen3 and aftermarket is a complete unknown.
It might take off, or might be poor, as box tickers just go for the cheaper and poorer alternatives.
I doubt CFP would buy his Mrs Flowers on Valentines so buying 1.5m shares would mean the Worlds gone mad.
Wheres he hiding anyway? Prob a Man Utd fan aswell :)
Brock
Sensible write up there.
Whats allowed for in Fleet in that equation? I can see Gen3 doubling in Calender year 25 if not more? With legislation who knows the size of fleet in both aftermarket and factory fitted. Until we see the next 3 TPIs cant see where fleet going.
Even if only stayed the same with only current 5% qtr on qtr growth that would be over 110,000 units connected by 2028.
Even at $30 month with hardware sales every month theres probably a $40-$50m business there.
Should be alot more clearer by Jan 2025....
I welcome yours & Baxters pragmatic views of SEE over recent years & appreciate that you are both holders.However, if CFP admits to buying 1.5million shares earlier today @ 5.23p I may have dispose of my holding, having never previously sold a single share in over 11 years since my first buy of 10k shares.
Looks like China as well as EU for VW have kicked off.
Seems KPIs will give us all the factual info we need.
"Magna said a German automaker — it wouldn't say which one — has recently begun using its system for cars sold in Europe and China, and it expects its technology will hit the North American market in 2025."
To endorse yours & Baxter news positivity,which is most welcome by All, Cold Fish Pie bought 1.5m shares earlier today at 5.23p ?
All this positivity is making me wonder whether I should sell ?
As a long-term holder, who first bought 10 or more years ago, it’s clear that a great deal of the 100 bag potential it had then, has probably gone for now.
It’s funny how investors can get carried away with certain shares. I can remember first buying when all they had was Fleet. No mention of Auto, and Fleet alone was going to make this share 100 bag, and I bought in to that story.
Crazy now when you look at where Fleet is now, and goes to show how easy it is to be seduced by story stocks, and just how hard it is to predict these things. We should all be millionaires just on Fleet revenue alone, but it hasn’t turned out like that.
However. the recent Auto KPI’s alongside management confidence, and predictions on taking $6 cost out of the company, has provided a level of certainty, that hasn’t previously existed.
Break-even during FY 2025 seems a very likely scenario now, and if Auto does double as predicted, I expect FY 2025 to show a small profit, possibly $10m.
FY 2026 should see a profit of $38m, and would suggest a minimum share price of 7.5p, based on market cap = 10 * profit. However, that just values the company on earnings, as if it has no growth potential, so price should be north of that.
2027 and 2028 should see $91m and $205m profit respectively, suggesting share prices of 21p and 49p, based on earnings alone.
The above includes nothing for Aviation other than what is already known and Fleet continuing to grow at the same pace, as if G2 continues and G3 Aftermarket provides little benefit.
Given the level of certainty, that appears to now exist, now seems to be as good a time to buy, as there ever has been. Little chance of losing money, and good chance of a 10 bagger in 3 to 4 years.
Whereas 10 years ago with a 100 bag possibility, there was every chance of losing all your money.
Lots could still go wrong, but apart from a black swan type event, even if they have over promised again, a 5 bagger should still be extremely likely from here.
This will be the first time our tech goes in high volumes in China.
VW sell approx 3 million vechicles a year in china so depending on how many cars are installed with our tech this will be a considerable uplift in KPI's for August.
https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/volkswagen-group-china-sales-figures/
No Terry, I rather like this new Baxter. All it needs is for CFP to say he has bought in and we're off to the races.
Sam Abuelsamid, principal e-mobility analyst at market research firm Guidehouse Inc., said such driver-monitoring systems in new cars remain relatively rare in the United States, but he expects that will change rapidly over the next five years, and they could become "fairly universal."
BMW invited dealers in the US at a two-day event in Las Vegas last week at the Aria Resort & Casino. It’s where retailers saw the next-generation X3 and X5 (with its X-shaped lights), not to mention the M5 Touring. However, the product onslaught is far more significant since nearly 40 facelifted and next-generation models are coming by 2030.
AN reports dealers were happy with what BMW was willing to share, mentioning the meetings with company representatives were “upbeat and positive.” CEO Oliver Zipse was allegedly at those meetings, along with sales chief Jochen Goller and CTO Frank Weber. BMW reportedly asked Snoop Dogg to perform and keep the guests entertained during those two busy days.
One dealer went as far as to say the “product is just unreal.” They added the upcoming EVs should have competitors such as Tesla worried because the “electric stuff is outrageous.”
https://www.bmwblog.com/2024/04/10/bmw-usa-tells-dealers-nearly-40-new-cars-coming-2030/
Can who ever stole Baxter’s phone please give it back as I keep thinking Iam on the wrong page when see Baxter and positive comments lol
Iam sure with a bit more news and 1 or 2 decent TPIs the SP will wake up.
August TPIs and results and forecast is the next big thing but we need regular news to stop it drifting south. Seen it so many times it’s like snakes & ladders. The past news is quickly forgotten with SEE.
Even Sifel has been re-iterating 15p since fleet was prob 40,000 units & auto booked business prob $300m. Will they be still re-iterating when auto $600m and fleet 80,000 connections?
Baxter,
Glad to see that you've decided 3m cars this year is doable.. Indeed, I hardly recognise you. You're even more bullish than Safestocks, which I take as a strong 'BUY' signal. Moreover, now that you've become optimistic, I feel Mr Market will soon follow your lead and change his/her/their mind....(I'm no good with pronouns).
To add my penny worth. I don’t think we can compare the 2022 share price as that was early in the rapid rise in interest rates amid high inflation. Monies poured out of equities (especially AIM) and into bonds. Hopefully we will start to see some rate cuts and settle back into the 4% range. Once the first cut or two is made funds will flow back into equities , IMHO, and this should coincide with cash break even. I am very confident the share price will see positive step changes beyond the 11p.
And so I am buying more buoyed by the KPIs and latest interview. DYOR - GLA
My guess is that other oems will wait to see what score ncap gives the mirror based vw cars when they are assessed. Occupant and Driver scores are broken down in that section. Some of the smarteye ones haven't got full scores as far as I can interprete and the steering wheel barely 2024 compliant ones don't score well so 5 stars.wont be gotten by anything that's not camera based. I think i saw a CB linkedin post that suggests that other oems are waiting on the ncap score magna mirror gets and then award accordingly. Mirror should be quick integration vs other led/camera positions so maybe some bases have been covered by contingency hence delays on awards. Make what you will on CBs take - he clearly knows people in the space that will talk off record and gets most calls right.
But I’m a bit more optimistic the last few weeks than for a while. I tend to take with a pinch of salt most of safestocks predictions but to say we will be in 3 million cars by end of 2024 seems very doable. Needs less than 400k average each of the next 3 quarters. I’m going to say we smash through that 3 million mark comfortably but I still don’t get why the market is getting it. A decent fleet contract or some other positive rns in the foreseeable would keep current momentum going
Understood. But factor in DMS is at last having some traction and more people are discovering what it's all about. Like most I was too early, but the past is no guide to the future in my view. Stay positive.
Nice to have some good news in the last 2 weeks with the contract extension (all bit it small over the period stated) and the good increase in auto kpi's.
However surprise surprise all it has done to the SP is get it back to where it was before the market dropped it down to 4p during the last part of March and April.
I must admit the progression in the business has always been there which is why I have always continued to hold, but I was just really peeved off with all the bullish statements made that haven't happened, such as the 2bn RFQ's, 3-4 mirror rfq's, six figure fleet rfq's etc... - I wouldn't be annoyed at all if PM hadn't said those things because there has been regular progression with contracts and KPI's, just not to the scale that was implied.
As long as they do hit cash breakeven during FY2025 and with the ramp up of VW and BMW I can't see how the SP can stay at these levels, but the market is not logical so until that SP is back to those 12p levels I still won't be completely happy.
I thought the proactive interview was better with no wild claims on RFQ's etc (I suppose I'm just going to have to accept things have dramatically changed after PM stated those things or they were white lies to try and gain momentum in the SP). The only extra thing he did imply was a step change in Fleet in 6 months time when selling into the Northern hemisphere after focus on Europe - you see to me a step change is something significant again, not just adding 10k units to fleet every year, so I will be adding that to the list.
I just wish we could get something that could blow the bloody doors off like another Magna VW contract - I can't understand why that hasn't happened yet. It should also stop this annoying drop in SP between news because part of me things that all that is going to happen now is the SP will be walked down again and then the kpi's in August will just move it back to 5.5-6p again.
I find we are getting better press recently, and people’s opinions here’re are more positive.
I’m expecting a big change over the next 6 months, the KPI ´d in August should raise awareness and if in 400-500k cars this quarter it’s certainly going to be a game changer and show what will be the norm over the following years. 100% yearly growth will be amazing and not many companies can achieve that.
Plus all the things Terry has mentioned.
Good list Terry,
However I noticed that you forgot all about the 1.6 billion or so of RFQs which have just slipped off everyone's radars. What is going on with all of these potential RFQs ?
A few biggies from Toyota, Mazda, Subaru, Hyundai or whoever...... that would set the share price rising properly.
Patience chaps, as ever. GLA.
Seize
Hopefully next 4 months on a upward trend. We could really do with
1. 1 or 2 bits news every month as we know this always drifts down not up :(
2. Good TPIs in August to end of June
3. Good results announced in August upto end June
4. Positive forward forecast in Aug for FY25
5. Some Aviation and Fleet wins/news etc
Us long term holders really deserve this to fly one day but be over 10p by August as a starter....
As soon as it is, we will sell. No messing around this time. I have no doubt it will rise higher than that but we need the money.
A lot has happened since then & we’ve had our doubters but you have to say SEE is in good health & just needs to keep to their promise of break even !
If we can manage that we will be seen as a powerhouse & licence machine similar to ARM in its early days.
We also have an aviation contract to win as Collins will be issuing a statement soon on the blue label product ! We have a blue label coming this month according to PMG & Martin Ive🙏
Won’t be long till we are back at 11p, could happen by September if we keep on track & produce the numbers expected by the analysts.
Certainly, house broker Stifel seems very confident. Yesterday, its analyst Peter McNally put out a note summarising the positives:
“The highlight of Seeing Machines Q324 KPIs (Jan-March ’24) are Automotive production volumes which are up 51% or more than 105k to c.313k in just three months (+80% y/y). This is welcome news after a still healthy but slightly slower Q224 and is likely to affect the shares positively, in our view.The news comes with further reiteration from the company that it is on track to meeting FY24 (to June) expectations and continues to expect a cash flow break- even run rate during FY25. We make no changes to estimates as we approach year end but see this as positive given its main competitor recently pushed out its breakeven potential target by up to six months.The shares remain one of our top picks within the sector as we approach regulatory mandates for all new vehicle types in the EU. We think investors should take advantage of the current price given the shares trade at 4.1x EV/ Sales for FY24E or 3.1x for FY25E. Buy.”
He maintains his target price of 15p.