The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Things are looking up! Blue day 👍
8th April looks highly likely now. Could be tomorrow but that would likely signal iffy news.
Not long until the holy grail update
Perkylad, expected sales aren't £8.3M - that was the full year revenue figure for 2023.
Full year revenue guidance for 2024 is £23M with a notional split of £9M (H1) and £14M (H2). Q4 revenue for 2023 was £3M (flat £1M per month) and, as I've suggested on another forum, anything under £3.6M Q1 revenue is unacceptable progress, £3.6M-£3.8M represents reasonable progress and £3.9M+ would be positive. A 30% Q on Q ramp up from £3M to £3.9M would see them need to repeat the trick in Q2 to £5.1M in order to achieve the £9M H1 revenue projection.
As for it all having gone quiet, there was no reason to expect them to announce anything between the trading update in Jan and the trading update in April, unless for a further contract announcement but I expect that to come in Q2.
Prelim results should be out soon (last yr on12/4) maybe there will be some info on that too...
Could do with an update and to see if expected sales hit £8.3M.
Its all gone a bit quiet which is a bit of a worry...
I'm trying in vain to find the terms of the capital expenditure loan. I know it's not for general working expenditure, just for Capex but what are loan terms?
There's been 23 (count 'em!) different buys this morning of 1 share each at 9.39p and now 9.49p.
I know some buy 1 share to attend the AGM, but that's just a one-off. Can someone educate me as to why this happens?! Is it really a code to signify something as some think (this always seems like the usual b.lcks conspiracy theory to me). At least the share price has ticked up a nice 0.45 today.....
The board can see the share price just as clearly as we can. They understand what the market needs to hear…but hasn’t heard…yet!
Any one with any new views?
One has to wonder whether Johnson & Bundred actually have any idea about how the stock market works, what investors demand, etc.....
The SP has been a bit more buoyant in the last few days. Drifting up towards the 10p share issue price. Hopefully the large sellers have got their business done and moved on.
Based on the last few years we can expect the next TU in April along with the accounts for 2023. Any TU before then is more likely to be bad news than good news I fear.
" But still ludicrously undervalued imho given the huge order books stretching out for many years ahead. "
Yes but unfortunately the market is not going to pay for future earnings ahead of when they arrive ..too much risk in doing that !!
..so the SP rates around current risks .....need to have some clearer idea of what extra cash they are spending to continue to get over these current production hurdles
Another tick up after some large-ish trades today.
Yes, the m/cap is £32m after the placing, cheers. But still ludicrously undervalued imho given the huge order books stretching out for many years ahead.
Any sign of the production issues being solidly addressed - or new contract wins - and the upside here is huge.
It’s a £32M market cap with 360M+ shares now in issue.
The next update needs to show increases in sales per month and a smoother production process. Ideally also a firm expectation of capacity improvements being on target for mid year.
" The £22m m/cap here is truly ludicrous "
nobody cares about MCAP ...only becomes of importance if and when a company is sold ...
What the market cares about is the PERFORMANCE of the BOD, and inflow and outflow of money capital within the business
The cash they have MUST achieve their targets and they MUST get in the revenue targeted to support that spend ..end of story !!
Hopefully yesterday's move up and the early tick up this morning is indicative that any large sellers are now out.
The £22m m/cap here is truly ludicrous when compared to a zillion other companies on the market - there are companies with virtually zero or little revenues who are valued at far more!
I agree that the company is very under valued, there are a significant number of trades today and a high volume of shares traded !!
Somebody is jumping in while the price is low.
Poole, the furnaces as far as I know have performed well since Q2 2023. The issue started in late 2022, these were new larger energy efficient furnaces, the linings failed within weeks when they should last at least 6 months. New linings were developed and fitted this took about 4 months to achieve with a slow ramp up over the next 2 months . The last news we had is the new linings were exceeding expectations.
There is also the prospective pipeline of £300m, this refers to future planned models that both the OEM and ST have done engineering work on. So far the prospective pipeline has ended up as part of the order book and the only reasons it wouldn't is if the model was cancelled or the OEM decides to change supplier.
Due to a disastrous 2023, a recent share placing and a very negative AIM market we are where we are. I can see a massive potential future valuation for this company but there are risks. The April update needs to show progress with production, lessons should of been learned from previous breakdowns that stopped production but until the £50m capacity expansion is completed there will be parts of the production line that still only have one machine in place. The possible single points of failure will reduce as capacity is installed but not sure how much will be operational in Q1. I feel reasonably confident but Q1 performance will be mostly about what the engineers have learned.
I live in hope that they have or will very soon iron out the production problems. A few months back there was a suggestion that there were teething issues in several areas tha were being attended to. That was largely a red herring.
I still think that the real issue is do they have the main furnace problem solved? Otherwise they need to let us know how they are able to forward order for further furnaces required?
As to their recently dolling out huge numbers of options at the very depressed they have caused it was a disgrace. The go ahead for the new options was given by shareholders when the share price was closer to 50p!
To me shareholders are being robbed.
How on earth the two main shareholders have continued to put up with this also needs some explaining - I have to agree with most of what "fevetreeman" has to say. The Chairman's job is too look after shareholders interest by asking the right questions which he appears not to have being for several years now. As for Johnson he failed to see that the major process change was feasible and capable of working before committing us to it. Enough said
Order book worth £400mil
So undervalued
1. Certainly the chairman needs to be shown the door and the sooner the announcement comes the better. My advice would be to announce Bundred is not seeking re-election at the AGM (June) when they announce the Year end figs. As for Johnson, who appears to have all the energy of a depleted car battery, he needs to up his game considerably or be told to step aside for a CEO who can deliver on the company's undoubted promise.
Meantime there is an urgent need to professionalise this company at every level. To give an example, they should tighten up reporting timetable: last year Trading Update was on Apr 3rd followed 14 days later by the Prelims, which given the current febrile state of affairs, will merely give Mr Market 2 bites to diss the share price. For a calendar year end company, putting out your prelims in mid April shows just how lax and underpowered the internal finance function was under Cunningham. There is no reason on earth why they cannot either combine the Prelims & TU into one release or alternatively release both on the same day. Over to you CFO!
" and they still got it wrong"
well.... I am not sure anyone knows exactly , why..... in terms of whether what they had been lead to believe was a sales confirmation by year end was , then held back by the customer .... until into the New Year
those things happen