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Well I thought the risk to this SP was a no deal. As it turns out the risk actually was the deal completing.
Just imagine where the SP would be now if SAVP and not got involved in Nigeria. I am sure we would have multiple more discoveries under our belt by now with an on-going drilling program continuing to prove-up more and more oil. Add to this the EPS providing some cash flow and news of the CNPC Benin pipeline? if we hadn’t already been taken-out we would surely be in a JV and the SP would be substantially higher than a miserable 22p. Clearly the markets don’t like our Nigerian assets and instead of adding value it’s actually still dragged us down. TBH after two years waiting for completion, I was surprised we never got news on immediate resumption of the drilling campaign, new on share-buy-backs, dividends, new gas contracts, expanding of the existing pipeline network, restructuring / reduction of debt and a JV partner to name but a few. Instead all we got was more jam tomorrow and the share price tanked.
Let’s hope AK can add some meat-to-the-bones tomorrow and start moving this share price north.
I am not sure its that the market doesn't like the Nigerian assets but is sceptical that a distressed asset purchase will produce the FCF claimed. I have asked AK in tomorrows retail call if there is any significant cash required to give any Nigerian unloved assets some TLC. AJ10 is spot on when he calls for meat on the bones and more definitive timelines for the various work streams that must have been progressed during the long wait. Without it PI's will understandably loose patience.
More than one poster pointed at the "stabilise the business" comment as worrying in terms of possible delays and costs
The reality in my mind is that someone (insto) has decided to lighten up his or her position into the liquidity around completion of the 7E transaction. This capped the short-term price upside which in turn led retail traders “in for the ride” sitting on losses and cutting or being stopped out. You just had to look at IG at lunchtime to see 100% of all their trades week to date had been sells (likely stop losses).
As humans it’s only natural that we look to put a story to the news, but the reality is this is AIM and flow matters more than fundamentals in the short term.
For longer term minded investors they just need to look to the fact AK eventually delivered on an improved transaction and is now committed to not just delivering, but also growing those FCFs, while advancing the Niger farmout plans and then doing a big drill programme.
The problem with the retail CC format tomorrow is that without real time questioning of AK, he will not get a real sense of the frustration that LTHs share, with no very near term events kicking off straight after the Seven E deal has closed. Wtf, 27 months of paperwork and nothing waiting in the wings to announce? Is this for real? What has the bod been doing whilst the lawyers were kept very busy?
O&W I can't believe for a minute that there is nothing ready to kick off. A steady newsflow was what we were promised. AK is not responsible for the market reaction being negative. As shareideas says could be an II divesting for good reason. We know the value is there and I remember as I'm sure many do the 12p days - that was hell. This is not - this is short-term frustration that we know will be resolved. I've held firm today and was too slow for the 22.3 buy trades that I tried to get - autos beat me to it!
Having been reluctantly averaging down on several of my other oilies for a long while now, I gleefully averaged UP here today - IMHO there is a lot more to come....
I totally agree O&W. The board have had months if not 2 years to plan what is going to happen next. So why aren't savp drilling in Niger next month. How many more months are they going to be sat on their ares planning what to do next! They are far too slow for my liking.
AK should have a proper interview where we ask him the real questions that need answering. Not one of these staged Q&A interviews where it is all scripted beforehand.
I too think this stock has a genuine chance of appreciating decently from these non stretching s/p levels and get why you averaged up here today Ginoir. I did similar last week here - rather it this week now of course but on a scheme of things no biggie either way- and my average is now 26p instead of 25p and that was only the second time in a very long time that I have averaged up on an oiler stock in my p/f ..and I hold lots, indeed far too many of them, I'm now thinking... But while the sector may be bombed out - and can of course bomb out further, but can of course bounce too- there are always opportunities for the best stock pickers eg Serica and Eland - and Faroe, Ithaca etc- were good example in the producer space in recent years.
ps: boy do I know that reluctantly averaging down on sundry other oilers feeling :-) I focus on averaging down on two at a time and if ever a bounce occurs to anywhere near my latest b/e I sell a large tranche of the position, but not all the position as some would say that many AIM O&G'ers are very cheap now. ( I very much hope they're right.. and towards balance I do always offer on any given BB that that AIM Oilers can of course go up as well as down, but also that s/p can of course go further down too, I often get abused for the latter comment and guess what happens, the s/p usually goes further down.. I then offer the same again, get more abuse again and the s/p usually goes further down again.. etc... I then say in my defence, that I've called this well recently guys... and get more abuse again.. etc... :-))
Also experienced abuse Michu. 100 posts all positive - the board do something and I post that it's negative and all other posts are forgotten - accused of all sorts - being a bot, working for someone, de-ramping, trying to buy in lower etc etc
many people can't cope with any negatives - they really shouldn't be investing to be honest - anyway - keep posting the 'truth' - you are helping others even if they don't see it that way.
Good team work in holding our nerves today - what these boards should be for.
Thanks Kalan and well put.. and thick skin gets developed along the way .. it's a tricky one too as there are a lot of good people out there - plenty with excellent understandings of the space and the names they hold - getting into genuine financial strife off the back of playing - long - the AIM O&G game- and indeed the AIM game generally as it's close to a failing market now imho -and you've got to feel for them because it's genuinely brutal imho...
Olde Malcay is getting more widely more hated by the month nowadays.. and he was a hero in 2016 and good in 17 too ( and I'm very thankful to him for 16 especially ) The problem is pre 2015 s/p pricing norms in the sector have been seemingly been obliterated and many long termers have been very blindsided by this - seemingly- barbaric new paradigm, and me to a reasonable extent, in fairness....'denial' and 'coming out fighting' in such circumstances are natural reactions...so i'm likely going to tone down the negativity a bit soon.... but not completely.
Thanks NicetoMichu and Kalan. All views welcome. Most posters are holders so we can be rose-tinted. On AIM market generally I compared AIM all-share performance to FTSE All Share today and interestingly although AIM has underperformed by c10% over the last year it is close to parity over 1 and 3 months and 3 years and better over 5 years. Are we in a cyclical pattern or is AIM in terminal decline? Too early to say but flat over last 3 months could turn positive with a more risk-on atmosphere say post US-China trade deal (if it comes).