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Zero chance they issue shred. They will pay it off using cash flows. The only reason they haven’t already is that there is no financial advantage in doing so. All IMHO.
I still expect them to refinance in the coming months which should yield material FCF and earnings upside
Yeah... worth about 4-5p per share lol
The guy was dialling in from Nigeria - likely between meetings ahead of bringing on new customers and getting the CPR and trading updates out in the coming weeks
The reality in my mind is that someone (insto) has decided to lighten up his or her position into the liquidity around completion of the 7E transaction. This capped the short-term price upside which in turn led retail traders “in for the ride” sitting on losses and cutting or being stopped out. You just had to look at IG at lunchtime to see 100% of all their trades week to date had been sells (likely stop losses).
As humans it’s only natural that we look to put a story to the news, but the reality is this is AIM and flow matters more than fundamentals in the short term.
For longer term minded investors they just need to look to the fact AK eventually delivered on an improved transaction and is now committed to not just delivering, but also growing those FCFs, while advancing the Niger farmout plans and then doing a big drill programme.
Beavering away on the loose ends and an RNS no doubt!
Coiled spring
Hannam estimate $10m and it’s due within 90 days of ministerial consent (ie 16 Nov)
One sell, one buy with broker pocketing the scrap between the two prices
SAVP will choose a partner with deep pockets and a commitment to drill the 10-15 wells mentions over the year...
That’s my point - completion is potentially within weeks but where you are relying on others signatures and Uk courts you can never be 100% certain. So I’d like to see them confirm the bridge financing they have suggested so we can then focus solely on the Accugas funding sign-off, the UK court process, deal completion and of course Niger farmout/drilling...
On the latter point see the below article... sounds like it’s heating up ...
https://www.upstreamonline.com/weekly/savannah-seeks-niger-partner/2-1-685340
In my mind I would like to see confirmation that have financing in place through to completion. Not long to go now but would be nice to put any funding questions to bed while we wait
Certainly would expect to have the Accugas financing sign off and maybe a UK court date set before October is done... then clear path to November close (and fireworks)
Presumably they have just moved from 50/50 deal/no deal to 60/40... the good news is that as we get further milestones through their target price will keep moving higher...
Barclays (most cautious of all coverage brokers) up price objective from 31p to 37p, reiterating Buy
All eyes on the prize
Having secured Government backing, Savannah Petroleum is on the cusp of completing the Seven transaction, which will transform the company into a sizeable full cycle E&P with an attractive mix of long term stable cash flows, development upside and follow-on exploration potential. Our view is that deal completion will drive a re-evaluation of the stock by the market, setting the scene for a re-rating from a low base. To this end, we maintain our BUY recommendation with a target price of 90p/shr, in line with our Total NAV, offering 304% upside
So it’s not been LO buying the last piece but instead Spreadex - presumably on behalf of some as yet unknown party?
Maybe as bigger more long term minded holders they got a bigger wink lol! Reality is funds all have different views and time horizons and liquidity needs (LOG a case in point) so cannot read too much into any of these flows...
Please don’t misconstrue my comments re the initial Harvey results being disappointing as meaning that they are not commercial or indeed additive to the IOG investment case (and hence valuation). All I am saying is that Harvey wasn’t the slam dunk hoped for!
Re LO intentions, it’s totally plausible that they see the value in IOGs core business (per the farmout) and hence are taking a view on that rather than Harvey (potential upside if they share my view its’ commercialisation is not in the price today... All IMHO...
We now see the buyer - Lombard Odier adding another 7m shares to 21.4% of the current share count