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I also think 15p without SS Deal and no debt restructure, No excuses now for no completion on debt as that could be what underscores the SP at between 25-30p
Hi oaw. 15p without a deal but I think it'll stay suspended. Greetings from Bangkok (rich tea in hand)
As of today Julian Horn is no longer a Director of three SAVE renewables subsidiaries. However his LinkedIn profile still records him as a SAVE employee. To paraphrase Ali G s it because he is French?
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/officers/Sl_xR894lgKS0g-cJM0yTTTP15E/appointments
I think it will be 13-15p (basically down 50%)
Any guesses on opening spread next Friday/Monday week, assuming things work as they are supposed to?
Mine's 15-19p.
My doctor says that whether I am alive is a matter of opinion but I anticipate asking if we have got the chad money back yet via a medium
...that I am still alive, when trading is resumed in this share !
Fair point KK
I'd treat anything the ex-oil minister Djerassem Le Bemadjie says with extreme scepticism Lst. Exxon and Save have a contract and I'd be stunned if Exxon entertained any discussions with Chad over compensation without fully engaging Save.
So if we lost in the ICC and Chad govt are deemed to have compensated EXXON do we then seek to recover everything we spent on the deal from EXXON ?
Hi Zengas, not seen anything that specifies the amount. The only date I've seen in the media for the ruling is that of June 2025 from this article.
'As for the case between the Chadian government and Savannah Energy, ousted from the Chadian oil company by Ndjamena after it bought ExxonMobil's shares in Chadian oil, it will be decided from June 2025 before the Court of Arbitration International Paris, according to the Chadian side.
In the meantime, Ndjamena assumes the “nationalization” of its oil. “ We are working to compensate ExxonMobil for its shares ,” explains Djerassem Le Bemadjiel. He expects “ in return ” from the American major that it will “ compensate ” Chad for leaving without having restored the polluted soils.'
https://www-rfi-fr.translate.goog/fr/afrique/20230920-tchad-la-justice-am%C3%A9ricaine-ordonne-le-gel-des-comptes-de-cotco-%C3%A0-citibank-gabon?fbclid=IwAR0WMeMMEg1hisf5vLIKy2tGN1N2NREaw-0Q_v7ZShEHw2da9ZXWdp39bFI&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=facebook&utm_source=shorty&_x_tr_sl=fr&
Has there ever been a disclosed amount that SAVE is claiming for against Chad and some 12.5k bopd production.
"The Company has commenced ICC arbitral proceedings against the Government of Chad to seek full recompense ***for the loss that it has and will suffer*** as a result of the nationalisation of SCI's assets."
Surely progressed by 9 - 12 months now and perhaps an outcome late next year ?
If ZENs claim today is anything to go by, surely SAVEs loss at the present time plus future losses must be well in excess of $500m being sought ??
By contrast AC at Zenith Energy is today claiming $85.8m against Tunisia which only had production of 300 bopd on its takeover of a Chinese subsiduary of which they acquired for just under $1.7m
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ZEN/icc-arbitration-for-slk-against-tunisia-73bk0z0srmgq1zk.html
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ZEN/acquisition-of-slk-from-cnpc-isyijn1o61lz1w0.html
RR, the interest rate and maturity are important considerations. Obviously a longer maturity and lower rate are preferable but do bear in mind, current local currency Nigerian government bonds trade at around 16%, so we are very unlikely to be below those levels. But what I think is much more important is that we are taking away a huge FX mismatch issue. We saw the negative ramifications of this given the recent huge devaluation in NAIRA and the resultant FX losses we incurred given our need to hold large local currency balances (to pay local wages, other local costs) whilst at the same time having to service USD debt. Post this refinancing, those large local currency (Naira) balances (derived from USD-linked long term gas contracts) will be matched to new Naira debt.
Given Nigeria inflation is currently running at 26%, the Naira will continue to depreciate, thus the sooner we get this debt refinance complete, the better. My view is that this would be a big positive for the stock.
TiL - apart from extending the term to match our >$3.5bn of contracted revenues, what would you deem to be good terms and how do you calculate it adding 4/5p to the share price?
Thanks Sajy - I guess the main takeaway for me is getting the debt restructuring completed that in itself would be worth 4-5p to our share price perhaps more depending on the terms of the restructure especially if the restructure is fully aligned with our contracted revenues over 15yrs etc……
I hope there is not a long-stop date that can’t be extended. Alternatively there is also a possibility that Savannah know that the NOMAD will not grant another extension. My thoughts are changing to be that we issue an AD with workstreams outstanding or the deal fails. I hope the former but then the next question would be what would the SP return at and I’d hope for anything above the suspended price. If the later I’d hope return higher than my 15p average.
Much appreciated Sajy. Fingers crossed.
I had a long chat with IR yesterday and it's too long to post everything so will mention what I think were the important points.
Company are still on track to publish AD for South Sudan on or before 15th December. I asked if the company could extend the deadline if work streams not completed and stay suspended. Response was we have not sought advice on that. This was very interesting for me as I asked the same question in September and the answer was we have sought advice and been told we can extend deadline and stay suspended. So the questions arises why have they not sought advice this time.
I asked what the work streams are and was told it is gaining approval from various different departments and then Government approval. AK has been and is still in SS and that is what he has been doing.
Accugas debt refinance is still expected to complete before end of 2023 and will issue an Rns.
Re Chad, some major changes would have to take place for Save to start discussions with the Chad Government and preferred route is still via ICC.
No plans to issue a trading update before the end of 2023.
Not much happening in Niger, it is a wait and see situation for now.
Https://www.africabusinessplus.com/en/817705/chad-minister-abdelkerim-mahamat-abdelkerims-london-roadshow-launches-80m-mining-sector-project/
I wonder if the minister had to field any questions regarding unexpected nationalisation.....
I'm not talking about approval of the deal but in reality it shouldn't take more than six months to sort out a ADM document. Normal practice is to then publish , relist and then wait for approval.. The first extension to 9 months I could except but the last 3 month extension taking us to 12 months is just a poor excuse and I'm surprised the nomad allowed it. Basically in my opinion things are not going well and they are just using it to delay the inevitable bad news.
I do hope they manage to perform some mimical and it isn't bad news but I've resigned myself that it isn't going to be good news on or before the 15th December and if we relist I'm expecting to be down 50% on the day e.g 13p.
As bad as that may be at least it would give me the option to sell up and reinvest what remaining capital I have left from this investment else where as I no longer have confidence in this company.
On the face of it one would think that perhaps 15th December would be the deal or no deal date, being a year from the PSA announcement but even that doesn't hold water as the rns was released on 12th December last year.
The mind boggles.
I had thought that just maybe the 1st Dec could have been Saves own internal hoped for date to publish the adm doc.
After a year, what is it that’s really holding it up and taking it closer to the 15th. What is there that hasn’t been concluded to date that can be done suddenly in the next 14 days to get an adm doc issued ? It was to be issued giving details of the conditions necessary to conclude the acquisition.
It’s baffling after so long that we know so little from the company. They string out the same standard responses but can’t say what exactly the P2 reserves or net production was/is and refer only on query, to the original RNS which gives a gross figure of production but no reserves.
I also think that with all the bad luck SAVE have had that AK maybe consolidating what we have and biding a bit of time. We’ve spent circa $30m - $40m on Doba / Totco / Cotco / Agadem and SS for now hing at the moment. I think AK will be very nervous of committing to another potential large deal until we see some reward from the above. You can only spend $20m CAPEX adding >$300m to debt with no production so many times and I think we are at our limit ATM. Yes Accugas is stunning but it can only support so much. We need to see red lots from something ASAP as we all know so well.
The biggest winners of the oil major divestment in Africa will be local African independents not international independents. May seem like a small difference but quite material in terms of getting government approvals.