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...an RNS this week setting out a revised cancellation date. The 5 April RNS doesn't do this, so an extension date needs to be published.
Whilst I'm here, I agree with scotpak's sound assessment on the somewhat shrill Chad government statement. It's interesting that Chad seems to be
(unjustifiably) painting Exxon as a bad guy as well as Savannah. All that matters is the final settlement which should be about a year away. The Chadians either nicked the asset from us or from Exxon. Worst case is we get our Exxon debt extinguished, I think. But I think we'll do better than that. Injunctive action on cargoes post-ruling...
Finally, Andrew can diffuse the AGM by going through country-by-country setting out what he can and stating clearly when he cannot (for reasons of legal confidentiality or commercial sensitivity). I expect the financials to be extremely ugly. However, with the untaken Nigerian gas and unreleased Cameroonian dividends, deferred revenue (whether Cameroon is recognised on balance sheet or disclosed in the Country Review section) might approach half a billion dollars. Crikey.
And the NGN back tracking currently at 1,515. Nearly back to square one - 1,624 the all time low. Yes I’m sure they need to give a new date by Friday at the latest, or announce deal done pending 2 sets of accounts being released in June, or of course the possibility that deal cancelled.
I originally started building my stake here years ago with an investment timeline of December 2024 - wow what a long and tough Lourdes this has become with so much tied up in this stock.
A balanced PF is definitely more powerful than I’d have ever thought. Different sectors across different continents definitely the order of the day.
If SS closes and oil is flowing again - I wonder if we will see a dividend announcement?
Rockyride - On a deal cancel scenario a business update would have to be given on re-listing as we have been suspended for over 18 months, so even if there is a deal cancel scenario than they would have to either release a comprehensive business update or FY23 accounts.
Hence even if we are heading down deal cancel scenario, one would expect to either extend this Friday or if the accounts are ready release the accounts Savannah may seek to extend even if they know that is the scenario just by a few additional weeks in order to get the FY23 accounts out and than terminate deal.
I agree with one of the posters that the financials will be pretty ugly. Who knows how low the Naira will go and or for how long more.
It’s obvious there’s still no SS approval. Was it ever even close I wonder?
Nigerian debt to be sorted by the time we relist.
Indeed so much news anticipated lets hope its all positive
You cleverly didn’t say when to relist :)
Ahh Relist, the million dollar question.
Good post cyb, been thinking about your ugly financials point.
I posted on 21-3-24 and allowed no change/reduction in net debt since end June 2023 of $443.4m given the exc-rate/interest rate etc and left this at $443m
At the end of June 2023 net debt = $443.4m
To me i Implied no change in net debt with profit being taken up by the above in a worst case over the last 12 months. This was taking into account capex reduced by $30m as well.
Also if that level of net debt had not decreased i expected it to move up due to the Sipec acquisition announced in March which was for $59.5m less almost 7 months effective date reduction for 75% of the cost = approx $55m new net debt (though this won't have completed by mid year accounts next month).
This was potentially moving the net debt including the Sipec completion to $498m.
We don't know what the revenue is or if there is any increase in output over the last 12 months to improve that scenario i've pencilled in for myself.
I had a combined (net) valuation for Uquo/Stubb Creek 2P/2C including Sipec of $439.4m and $636.3m for Accugas = $1075.7m = 59.7p/share less 27.6p share for the increased net debt of $498m (my estimate) = 32p share net for Nigeria ops.
While SAVE did say the $59.5m acquisition of Sipec was being funded by a new bank facility from Stndard Bank of South Africa, they did say it would also be financed by the 'existing cash resources of the company' so perhaps it's not looking as bad as first though if they have cash to spare. However time will tell.
My 29/4/24 post on the Sipec deal would add about $41m/yr revenue.
Within 12 months of the the deal being approved this would add a further $60m revenue.
Ie $100m additional revenue stream from Sipec at approx $80/b pricing plus there's a small Brent premium.
Imo this small Sipec acquisition on it's own could transform the net debt/repayments fairly quickly not to mention Accugas putting out more sales gas to additional customers.
Nigeria imo net debt free is 59.7p as above or rounded basically 60p share. (32p + 28p debt = 60p). This is where i see us without any of the other assets considered but i think the additional Nigerian asset should address what i see as a possible mediocre/bad past year in Nigeria and heres to a speedy closure of that deal
Zengas all the way. Amazing as usual. Thank you Sir Zeng.
Respect Zengas, thanks for sharing , will be a way better feeling with stock price at 60p
59p will do for me. A distance away. Dream.