Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
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"They said they had dissolved the constitution, suspended all institutions and closed the nation's borders. "
Not helpful.
20p on re-opening?
What a bloody farce.
We had a Q1 operational update on 13 April this year; but to the best of my knowledge, we've never previously had quarterly updates, certainly not in the last two years.
Given all the matters currently in flux, I expect nothing until material, company-specific events (good or bad) force an RNS. Interims for the last two years were published on 30 September.
The 28 June date previously advertised on SS and much discussed here was strangely specific and I conclude that it may somehow have been tied to the recent South Sudanese visit to London that TrustILie sleuthed out so well. We've now had expectations managed back to "Q3".
Recent political events in our chosen jurisdictions show why companies like Savannah, once they are making profits, will be valued on extremely modest multiples or 2P projections. Savannah's country diversification and renewables initiatives may add a very modest premium, I suppose.
We can at least have some certainty of interims around 30 September.
The company gets a pass on disclosure re Chad, Cameroon and South Sudan for now. But that will have to change eventually and regular operational updates across the geographies will be required when confidentiality around political and legal issues is lifted.
Thankfully the share is suspended.
Niger soldiers announce coup on national TV https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66320895
Also one of the reason why I think they may have held back the Q2 operations update is to probably use that as a way to rns the extension news but at this stage it's anyone's guess. I must say I will be positively shocked and wouldn't complain if it did come this week but there is nothing to suggest that this is the case, and normally a deal of this size i would expect the number of people involved across the deal from Petronas, savannah, advisors, governments, there hasn't been a peep squeak of noise, either they are damn bloody good and keeping the real status sealed and secret or safe to suggest there hasn't been any movement to report..............................................
Tier - Haha................I am hardly inside or never have been correct. I like you and everyone on here as am clueless and just try to guesstimate...........................
At this point I hope that you’re ‘inside’ and correct! 😄 thank you for being obsessed so we don’t have to.
Tier - Personally not expecting any the admission document this week although for once I would love for savannah to exceed my expectations. I am going for a 2 week extension and say the new deadline maybe 11th August.............
Good to know. Thanks for that. China is the heavyweight rising star so all should be fine like you said. Anyone thinks we’re in a very nice surprise tomorrow or Friday?
Tier - News like this is a daily occurrence in most African countries so I tend to look beyond the headline. Besides we haven't yet started producing in Niger and the fact of the matter is CNPC are major investors and funders of pipeline so regardless of who is in power or not makes no difference as CNPC and China will call most of the shots. Most of the times pipeline and operations are left alone..................... until you hear otherwise. Don't think CNPC will pour billions in just to see the investment being blown up prior to any material return.......
I just don’t know what to say anymore. Now I know Nigeria is a safe haven. Everywhere SAVE goes, shxts follow.
A slightly less frivolous post: here's a background summary on how Bazoum got in to the presendential seat in the first place.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-56613931
To further put it into perspective seplat guidance for they year is 45,000 to 55,000 boepd and there market cap touched close to £800m the past few days. So if we can achieve similar production levels through new accugas contracts than that will allow us to reach parity with seplat on accugas business alone. Assuming we are now at 30,000 BOEPD and if we take a mid figure of 50,000 boepd for seplat that you could say 30,000 / 50,000 = 0.6 factor if you than apply that to the market cap of seplat market cap £800m * 0.6 = £480m. I believe if we weren't suspended and assuming the above comparison we would roughly have a market cap of £450m - £500m. We have historically tracked prices with seplat. If you than take £480m market cap / 1300 million shares = 0.37p or 37p
Blimmin' heck. Cue Shirley Manson and Garbage.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GpBFOJ3R0M4&pp=ygUNR2FyYmFnZSByYWlucw%3D%3D
Lol.
Next is..... Nigeria?
Bloomberg reporting Niger Presidency Says Leader ‘Doing Well’ After Reported Capture - President Bazoum reported seized by Presidential Guard. West African regional bloc condemns attempted military.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-26/niger-presidency-says-leader-doing-well-after-reported-capture#:~:text=Niger's%20presidency%20said%20the%20West,President%20Mohamed%20Bazoum's%20official%20residence.
I am not sure about you guy's but I believe Andrew should be aggressive in adding more gas contracts this year our Amocon gas contract was 20 MMscfd which is equivalent to 3,545 BOEPD. If we play it right I fully believe we can add another 80 MMscfd which is equivalent to 14,179 BOEPD. A total increase of 100 MMSCFD from last year would be 17,724 BOEPD.
Our production as at Q1 2023 average was - "Q1 2023 average gross daily production on a like-for-like basis was 25.9 Kboepd" we have added Amocon which is 3,545 BOEPD. So our average production should be circa 30,000 BOEPD. If we add another 80 MMscfd this year that would be 14,179 BOEPD. We can and should be targetting to reach 40,000 - 50,000 BOEPD from accugas alone.
Hence why I hope Andrew is working just as hard to secure more gas contracts as he is with other deals, as the potential of the accugas business and pipeline network should fully be exploited to maximise it's use.
Zengas - I do concur and the best way for the market to truly value the renewables business would be to have a separate listed arm. I suppose there are a number of things the company can do to reach peer valuations to Kosmos and beyond:
1) Continue the acquisition spree if we end up successfully completing Petronas South Sudan deal, perhaps a another acquisition following that deal of similar size to SS would get us there with net debt circa $2bn and minimal equity dilution.
2) Could also seek to become main market listed in London which should help us build a broader range of investor base and visibility.
3) Seek a listing in NYSE and become dual listed.
4) Spin off the renewable business when appropriate to fully maximise company assets across hydrocarbons and renewables.
My personal dream is still to reach 150,000 to 200,000 bopd in the next 18 months, we can certainly reach the lower end of that range i.e 150,000 bopd by end of 2024 if the company is successfully able to land deals alongside organic growth of accugas asset and Niger development.
Trustilie - when i mentioned the possibility of closing the valuation gap by possibly a future joint listing on the NYSE to replicate a value more closely to the likes of Kosmos and those across the pond - i was thinking of a timescale within 24 months.
I honestly think the renewables division will be missed by many and undervaluing SAVE as a whole as well - so like MEN, Shell and others it would not surprise me to see a spin off in the future where it's value would grow with a seperate listing and SAVE being a major holder and cash recieved as well from an IPO into the oil/gas divsion. With so much in the pipeline for the renewables division an ipo spin off would give much greater value in the medium term.
Peter Levines Molecular Energies PLC (formerly President Energy - prior to this he floated Imperial Energy in 2005 from under £20m and sold for £1.4b in 2008) last month is also considering spinning out it's renewables arm.
"The Company has oil and gas production in Argentina as well as exploration assets in both Argentina and Paraguay. The Company has two separate subdivisions which are focused on early-stage opportunities in the green and/or alternative energy sub-sector.
Molecular Energies PLC (AIM: MEN), the international energy company, is pleased to announce its intention to spin out and IPO its Green House Capital alternative energies division ("Green House").
The spin-out will expose Green House to a wider investor audience that is more focused on the growing market for green solutions.
Significant progress within Green House gives management confidence that the Company will attract new energy focused investors and command a valuation not recognised by being part of the Molecular Group."
https://www.molecularenergiesplc.com/about/
And at Shell - "Spinning out the renewables arm could help to boost Shell’s stock market valuation, which may actually be hurt by its current green energy businesses, he added.
Mr Borkhataria said: “It’s clear that these types of [renewable] assets do not get reflected in Shell’s valuation – typically, the company actually gets penalised for it.
“So there is an opportunity to realise and crystallise that value gap"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/07/13/shell-fossil-fuel-pivot-consider-green-energy-business-sale/
Longshorttrade - They are all singing positives and marketing for investments for south sudan, so my hope is that they back that up with action too, stone walling our deal will basically go against everything else that they are trying to achieve or saying what they want to achieve in all the press that we have seen, so the best way to attract investments would be to use our approval as the benchmark for other investors.
I like N J Ajuk very articulate and appears to be singing of the same Hymn sheet as AK. i also take a positive in the mentioning of Save.
Thanks for sharing TL
Couple of interesting interviews posted on YouTube Energy Capital & Power channel a few days ago talking about South Sudan oil and gas opportunities from Nilepet MD Bernard and NJ Ajuk.
Nilepet MD - https://youtu.be/b-vedmLz7Qk
NJ Ajuk - https://youtu.be/nFAfNtiq4PE
Rockyride - Sentiment wise there would not be a better time to return to market with oil price strengthening this is an ideal time if we can cross the final hurdles.