If you would like to ask our webinar guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund a question please submit them here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Yes, in terms of total time to trial 2a skips over a fair bit. It's a good move IMO, and I think the board are using the likes of Sotyktu as validation to skip to 2a. I'm hoping, if we are in licencing talks that the fact BMS paif $4 billion for Sotyktu warrants a decent upfront for Sareum.
Yet by skipping P1b, the net result must be we've brought P2a forward. Mind you, time is an illusion so.....
The 2a trial has already slipped in terms of timescales so will probably start at the end of this year. Based on that we'll be lucky to get a data readout before the end of 2025. Hopefully, funding aside, 1802 will be in trials too plus 737 news? The company have been very clear that funding is needed for 2a. Take that out of the equation and punters will start buying again.
Hi Potnak - with P2a likely to start this year, 2026 might be quite pessimistic for getting the data readout on 24 patients but who knows?
One big thing that will play into our hands is the fact we're skipping P1b. This seems to be a rare event in the pharma world and it'll get the attention of many interested parties therefore I don't see us going it alone. Yes, a partner will want a percentage ownership of 1801 (or whatever) but if it adds value and means no dilution then many will be able to live with that outcome. I just hope any deal isn't as opaque as the 737 one!
As for buys drying up, I guess that's maybe to be expected. Those of us who had funds at the start of the month will have bought asap and now I think potential new investors are holding off until P1a results are announced. Positive results will greatly derisk things and will point to the BoD's next intentions. If we partner with a major pharma for P2a then they may also be interested in 1802 and therefore by default, the whole company.
If we go into 2a fully funded and not dilluted. You will get your £300 million market cap without selling up.
I would be happy if Sareum sold up lock stock and barrel (everything! including the kitchen sink) for 300m at phase 1a. Like many my patience has its limits and I certainly won’t be waiting longer than the end of this year before making a call on what to do with this investment.
How does the company keep afloat until 2a data readout? Could easily run into 2026. How do they push 1802 along? They need 18 months, minimum of trial and operating costs. Between 6 and £10 million. Even with a licenced funded trial, we'd still need £3 million to cover running costs, salaries, etc.. Why do you think buyers have dried up? My number 1 rule for AIM investing is checking when the last raise was and looking when the next one is needed. The wrap and all the extra 40 million shares only gets us to the end of this year. The board could try and cherr the sp to a pound then raise but the discount would still be huge. So anyone buying around a pound could be 20% or more underwater after a raise. The board need to solve the funding problem and An on license now is really the only sensible option.
Hi Potnak - They stated that if they used the full £5m from RF plus £1.6m tax credits then that'd see P1b covered plus spare cash 'til the end of 2024. The original plans for P1b required 24 volunteers and it's still 24 for P2a so how do you arrive at us now needing £10m?
SDC-1801 moving steadily through the clinic (P3)
If the Phase Ia data are positive, we believe Sareum will likely seek potential out-licensing opportunities, whereby a
prospective partner would be responsible for undertaking the next phase of clinical development as well as subsequent commercialisation.
Firstly, for those that haven't. You should read the report in full.
I think this paragraph is a nod to what is happening. And the socond paragraph shows that the report is commissioned and paid for, based on a note issued by Sareum.
Should data continue to be favourable and contingent on Sareum securing further funding (we expect the company is likely to seek non-dilutive funding in the form of a partnership), the company expects to start a Phase IIa study in psoriasis patients (n=24) before end-CY24.
This report has been commissioned by Sareum Holdings and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Sareum Holdings. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note
I honestly don't see how Sareum could raise enough for 2a trial. They'd need £10 million to see them through to getting a deal on 2a data. The market would want a massive discount and we'd be back at 10p with 200 million shares in issue. IMO, where the Edison report says non dillutative funding. That is code for on licence. An on license doesn't dillute the shares. We pay Edison to write those reports by the way.
I agree with you Leggster . They know the value and so do pharma. It’s not as if they are the only company on aim undervalued. The time for a decent deal is after p2… but they can line up interested parties beforehand. We need efficacy.
Depends what you mean by good deal. IMO, they should and I personally think they are looking to licence on 1a data. If the dosing results suggest a high dosage then based on early pre clinical work, we can at least compete with more established drugs. But a 1a deal will definitely mean a lower upfront with bio bucks type milestones as it progresses to market. If the upfront us enough to put 1802 in trials and keep the lights on then, I'd say that a good deal but it does mean another 2 to 3 years before the real value shows. We're heading for a transitional period. The dillution has allowed some to massively build their holding whilst others are still massively under water. If we are talking takeover, The balance will have shifted. Where as once the LTH were united in what they would accept. Some can accept much lower offers and get out with what they wanted. I still think, if all goes well, Sareum are heading for a £2 billion valuation so I'd be really disappointed if we got less than £10 but, post dillution that's a £1.1 billion mc now. However, the deal is the deal. We'll have to wait and see what the board thinks is fair value.
That was necessity borne out of desperation FTC. Different to what I am referring to.
Thanks Lazarus2 and point taken.
I just hope they can get a deal through at some point soon whilst the sp over at GGP is so very low, as even at break even here (£1) I could mop up another 1.5m shares in GGP at current prices (which was always the plan!)
GL
The last deal they did was with Riverfort
I do feel in a minority in still supporting the BOD, my view is that despite the commercial misjudgement that they are Pharma professionals, they have expertise on deal negotiation on the board and a strong understanding of the asset. With a favourable set of data from 1a I do trust that as a team that are well positioned to negotiate a good outcome. GLA
Morning Matty - there are proven dealmakers on the Sareum BoD and all Board members are well connected and well respected within the industry. Before a deal can be struck, they have to be able to sit down with something meaningful in order to negotiate. As has been previously mentioned, we are getting ourselves into a really good position. Also, it is worth pointing out that there is an upside to the much maligned "Consolidation". There are very few shares in circulation as a result of consolidation and the sp can be expected to climb quite sharply on increased demand. Good luck
''The single only one important question is can Sareum strike a good deal for 1801''
Well their track record ain't great when it comes to 'business decisions' (RF anyone!?) but I truly do hope so as I've just over £81k invested in this now and am still underwater by just over £60k!.
Time for Parker to finally earn his over inflated salary (IMO) and for once actually deliver what he's supposed to be here for?! 🤔🤨
The Risk/Reward pendulum has swung increasingly towards "Reward" during the current trial progress. There is no adverse comments and the RNS news consistently point towards this phase being successful. RF will be out soon unless they exercise their warrants - It will be interesting to see whether they are immediately sold down or held as an investment. Having successfully navigated the financial hurdles, nothing is in the way of positive updates and newsflow. You will have to decide for yourselves in which direction you think the sp will go.
I agree a great opportunity to strike a deal after 1a complete and 737 news still to come. IMO this is still massively undervalued. Once the news flow starts this will.move at pace. GLA
Incoming IMO...
Well it's a trend, but no way guarantees what will happen now, or of course when news will drop. Dangerous game being out at these low levels.......
Take no notice of predictions, no one actually knows what's going to happen to the SP otherwise its would be easy to make money. People make all kinds of predictions and someone will guess right, that doesn't mean they knew anymore that anyone ese.
Bluewhite- It doesn’t matter what happened to the skil platform. The reality is right now we have two horses in the race 737 and 1801 (oh and one in the stables 1802). If 1801 makes it to the finish line, nobody will care what happened to the skil platform including you. The single only one important question is can Sareum strike a good deal for 1801 - this is the existential question which could mean riches for those invested or the end of Sareum.