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Stop? Will there be any FOMO? At this rate we'll be lucky to get back to 50p. Will my screen ever stop jumping about or be filled with carp adverts?
Is this ever going to
Not going to read all that SOG. You are are gatekeeping again. Hardly anything posted on here is fact. It's a weird flex, trying to stamp your superior knowledge on posters. You must know that. You only pick on certain posters though and that's not very scientific like.
I've said nothing negative. 1a is a big hurdle to get over.
I'll just go back to checking the board every couple of days.
Are you suggesting that your three quarters of drugs statement never get past phase 1 on something you claim to have read?
Have you mis understood this or misinterpreted this?
Science is very precise.
It may well be that a vast majority of drugs fail in preclinical stage. Well they do about a third of. Did your source if information that you read take this into account?
Around a third and a third is taken as a model here to work from. There are indeed variance in different areas of medical treatment.
We then have the drugs that have passed preclinical and enter phase 1.
As an example:-
100 compounds enter preclinical
66 pass
Now 2 thirds of these will pass phase 1
Two thirds of 66 is 44.
So out of the original hundred or so compounds that enter preclinical 44 go on to pass phase1.
Two thirds of these statistically fail in phase2
One third of 44 around 15
We now have from the original 100 compounds 15 that enter phase 3.
1 in 3 statistically will fail.
That leaves around 10 from our original 100 that have made it.
Around 90% chance of success of clinical approval use and commercialisation.
From original 100 that enters preclinical 9 will reach commercialisation
Approximately 1 in 11 or the given 90% failure rate quoted from many sources.
I will add that statistics being accurate if we use them correctly ,(99.9% of people do not) they cannot individually predict who will succeed and who will fail.
All it tells us is that 90% of drugs produced from the start will never reach commercialisation.
It does not indicate as to why it should pass or why it should fail. It is after all a mathematical model that takes events that have happened in the past to predict the future.
One thing l have learned is that attention to detail more often than not pays off.
Regards.
I remember reading something once that stated around 3 quarters of drugs never get past phase 1. Whether they fail or the company goes under. That's what I ve always had as a ball park. I dont intend to stick around much more than a successful P2 with data that suggests a p3 should be done. I'll be out at that point. If not before.
Single ascending dose :- no reported serious adverse events
Multiple ascending dose :- no reported serious adverse events.
Effectively what we are waiting for is the final data analysis results pointing out any undue side effects.
As long as these are minimal then we have absolutely no problems. There will be some, but not get alarmed by. Decravacitinib is certainly not without known side effects and has no black box warnings.
Effectively it is ecoming apparent that due to the absence or virtual non existence of reported serious adverse events with kinase inhibitors that are Tyk2 selective over Jak 1, 2 and 3 then we will at some not too distant time in the future replace the ageing first generation jakis with later generation inhibitors with Tyk2 bias.
It is a highly competitive and dare l say corrupt area of business. Just like banking, military weapons and production thereof which involves hundreds of billions of dollars each year.
There will be underhanded tactics, not every criminal is in jail, especially not the legalised or privileged ones who hold high office and even higher incomes.
Regards
Worth keeping in mind, what we all know, that the 1st half of phase 1a trial, the SAD results and food effects have proved very favourable in relation to toxicity. This I would have imagined would give some confidence for the 2nd, part of P1a, the MAD and biomarker part.
Unfortunately it does not quite work like that tricky.
It would be good if it did.
Regards
The observed success rates of academic drug discovery and development were 75% at phase I, 50% at phase II, 59% at phase III, and 88% at the new drug application/biologics license application (NDA/BLA) phase. These results were similar to the corresponding success rates of the pharmaceutical industry.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6226120/#:~:text=The%20observed%20success%20rates%20of,(NDA%2FBLA)%20phase.
If we have a few more buys than sells and we will jump 5%
Got to work both ways 🤪
Potnak, not sure how you base your stated 75% failure rate in Phase 1a trial.
My understanding is of around 66% success rate in Phase 1. Highest failure rates are in Phase 2 at around 66%.
Phase 3 have around 66% chance of success and around 85% success rate for NDA approval.
The link below although not exactly tieing in with my figures is however in the ballpark and fairly descriptive.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6226120/#:~:text=The%20success%20rate%20of%20each%20drug%20discovery%20stage%20in%20academia,87.5%25%20for%20NDA%20and%20BLA.
Regards
I'm still buying and will do to a pound. Pay day next week so I m good with news coming at the end of the quarter or even being a little late. The could well be a dip between 1a news and funding but it will be a good opportunity to buy more.
Potnak - a very down to earth balanced view. If 1801 is no good this will be the end for sareum - there are some big risks but equally there are some potential massive returns IF we have a good compound. The track record to date with flt3 failing and 737 failing in mono therapy and only good in combo backs the phase 1 challenges - im still holding for now
I think a few here need to understand the size of the hurdle 1a is. Upto 75% of drugs fail at phase 1. Notwithstanding funding, It is the single biggest hurdle to get over. A successful 1a is very good news but by itself, it may not set the SP on fire. If the board can't get a licencing deal with good 1a data the either they are no good or the compound is no good. It will take time to circulate the data, have the pharma review etc. So it may not happen until late summer with p2a trials spun up before the end of the year. And for those thinking the above timescales are a long time to have cash tied up in risk. Welcome to Bio investing.
Funny Guy on what factual basis do you make such absurd statements.
What has notification of the on licensee to do with SRA737 advancement.
As for 182 it does not exist.
1801 we await final data analysis results. Could be tomorrow next week or next month. Bit it will come and the Indications are it will prove successful.
SDC1802 whilst being developed in preclinical stage for oncology there have been recent patent applications for 1802 to be used as am immunotherapy. Clearly there is significant benefit here.
If you doubt this then please provide satisfactory evidence to substantiate your statement.
Next thing you will be stating is this will be going down to 10p again as you have proven history of.
Regards
There is no cat in hell chance there will be an imminent notification of SRA 737 advancement, they have not even said who the license is with and very little if any money has been paid.
There is very little chance of a license for 182
i think people are really jumping the gun
Top results could see the HNWIs plus the Royal show their hand. Let's not count them out . Was Aus their recommendation?
Can we possibly go to P2 with just the HNWI backing us? Do you all come from the same neighbourhood, throw £5 million at Sar and let some psycho pharma take your catch. Nah, I'd sell some gold bars and take it all. Too many contenders, place your bets.
2 weeks to go. Gird your loins.
A small spike then a drift back as people get angry and disillusioned.
Any idea what might happen with the share price if the phase 1a results when published are all positive with no negative issues at all but no licensing deal has been agreed?
HBD, I do not think they would have agreed the new licence without a belief that 737 would be progressed, they are motivated by both finding solutions for this terrible condition (I know from posts that this was of the reasons for investment as well as looking to make a return, this was certainly one of my non financial reasons for investing)and generating more money to invest in research. On 737 I choose to believe that we will get real news, hopefully soon though it does worry me slightly that there has been a significant period for them to fund raise and in the US market raising funds is normally a fairly quick process...anyway time to watch England GLA
It certainly looks like someone intentionally applied the brakes to 737 development, SOG. Although we'll never know the absolute truth of the matter, you'd hope when negotiating the latest deal that the CPF would try to ensure some level of urgency in moving 737 to the next stage. Perhaps that's just an idealist's point of view though.
On the brighter side, 1801 news must be just about peeking over the horizon - set your sp compass to head north from here!
Good evening HbD,
There was another that did not make sense at the time.
My own opinion is that it were scuppered.
Sierra Oncology stated at the time.e that 737 could prove more commercially viable than Momoletonib.
Developments and then silence. Then we here takeover by GSK.
A year later they hand it back most likely as of the clause within contract requiring return of 737 if no developments in a 12 month period.
Basically they strung it along from the end of 2019 to end of 2022.
3 years!
GSK would certainly not want a competitor to have it as would pose a serious threat to the drugs that were the Tesaro pipeline they paid 5.1 billion for a year earlier.
It will come out one day.
GSK paid billions before due to mal practices.
I have posted much on this subject before.
Hi SOG - no matter how frustrated we punters are with the glacial progress of 737, imagine how Tim & John feel. They must be tearing their hair out.
Taken from the link posted earlier.
Link is from early 2020
NEWS: In a new study, scientists have found that small molecules that stop cancer cells from copying their DNA can boost the effectiveness of another type of cancer drug called CHK1 inhibitors.
This could offer a new, effective way of treating cancer by combining two drugs.
💬 Study co-leader Professor Michelle Garrett, previously a Team Leader at the ICR, explains:
“Our study shows the potential of targeting DNA replication for adding to the effect of an existing drug that blocks a system that helps respond to DNA damage."
I do find it very odd that on this type of news that CHK1 ceased development at the same time as Nick Glover resigned.
For any new investor here wondering why we keep banging on about SRA737, what sets it apart from other CHK1 inhibitors in its class is -
Potency and Selectivity: SRA737 has shown significant potency in preclinical studies, demonstrating its ability to inhibit CHK1 effectively at lower concentrations compared to other inhibitors. Its selectivity for CHK1 also minimizes off-target effects, reducing the risk of side effects associated with broader cellular targets.
Pharmacokinetic Properties: SRA737 has a favorable pharmacokinetic profile, with a half-life of 8.6–13.8 hours, which allows for once-a-day dosing. This is advantageous for patient compliance and convenience, potentially improving the overall effectiveness of the treatment regimen.
Clinical Development: SRA737 has progressed through early clinical trials, including a phase I trial evaluating its safety and efficacy both as a monotherapy and in combination with gemcitabine. These trials have laid the groundwork for understanding its therapeutic potential across various cancer types.
Combination Therapies: The exploration of SRA737 in combination therapies, such as with low-dose gemcitabine, highlights its potential for enhancing the anticancer effects of existing treatments. This approach could lead to improved outcomes for patients with advanced cancers.
Despite its current whereabouts being shrouded in mystery, there is clear clinical evidence that it could prove to be a gamechanger if it gets the development it deserves.
I feel the BoD need to provide some sort of update even if they still can't disclose who has licensed it. At least if we know it's got someone's full attention then that may nudge the sp a little.