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Started: SGD27, 28 Mar 2024 12:33
Last post: SGD27, 14 Jun 2024 18:57
A very good end to the week for us, obviously initially triggered by Avidity's good news, but then a lot of automated buying appearing today. It looks like the double effect of mcap now > $500m and possible FTSE 250 inclusion may be playing out. (See earlier posts in this thread.)
GLA
Unless I've misunderstood, the mcap shown here and elsewhere (even their own Factsheet) doesn't take into account the 48.3m shares due to be cancelled at the next AGM. These arose from the conversion of RTW's holding in Arix that they'd aquired from Acacia prior to the merger - see 13 Feb RNS. If that's right then the "true" mcap is approximately (386.7m - 48.3m) x $1.32 = $447m = £354m.
On the other hand I think the SP is still due to recover around 10% in the short/medium term as the ex-Arix-holder sell-off peters out, which would bring it back to $500m/£400m. As well as FTSE tracker buying, those figures might well be self-imposed minimum mcap limits for some institutional investors.
That could be significant as the trackers will have to consider buying it. The current market cap is approx 400m GBP and there are 3 companies with a smaller Mcap in the FTSE 250.
On a first quick glance through, this jumped out for me:
"RTW Bio may also in the future qualify for inclusion in the FTSE 250, which could further improve the secondary market liquidity of its shares."
Started: SGD27, 15 Apr 2024 08:33
Last post: Misterh, 20 Apr 2024 11:30
Well spotted. I didn't realize that either. I wonder if they managed to exit IRON before the SP collapsed.
Just read through and noticed this:
" We have exited all of Arix’s public positions and invested the proceeds and acquired cash into our own positions."
I'm not saying it was the wrong thing to do, just didn't realise that was the plan. Was anyone here expecting this?
Started: badtrader99, 23 Mar 2024 09:19
Last post: SGD27, 23 Mar 2024 11:24
Most of that was the 3 clearly related sells at ~16:13. That's getting on for 3%, so there must be a good chance of a Holdings RNS.
11m shares traded yesterday, well above the average. Any ideas? News coming?
Started: bertieblade, 14 Feb 2024 13:47
Last post: SGD27, 13 Mar 2024 15:54
Hi myepic, many thanks for that update. I put in a formal complaint to Fidelity a couple of weeks ago, which they say they're investigating. If they don't play ball then you've now given me great ammo to fight back with :-)
So anyone else that's been given RTWG, probably best to hold off selling until this is resolved!
An Update on this one - after an initial ,"no RTWG is correct" from my broker - I contacted RTW - they were quick to respond and confirmed it should have been RTW (USD) not RTWG (GBP) - my broker then moved my holding to USD without charge or resistance - RTW also followed up to make sure it had happened.
On the face of it the deal was sort of ok -- except we got shafted and given RTWG instead of RTW - RTWG is some weird GBP version that has very little liquidity and an appalling spread
So I’m not much of a poster (understatement) but assume I’m not alone in thinking this currently ain’t a great deal for Arix holders…..?
Started: Oldnbald, 15 Feb 2024 10:09
Last post: myepic, 6 Mar 2024 11:14
Yes shafted by Swissquote in the same way - rtwg - a piece of dog poop that just sits there when RTW goes up and has a spread that make it virtually untradeable
HL already supported RTW, and that's what they've converted my Arix to, which is fine.
Fidelity didn't support either, and has converted to RTWG, which is not fine. Why? Because RTWG is thinly traded, and has a spread to match. Today I can sell 10,000 RTW with HL for 104.39p, but for Fidelity/RTWG I'm only offered 102p.
Perhaps Fidelity thought they were doing us a favour by choosing the £-denominated version, but it certainly isn't working out that way, for now at least.
RTW
Out of interest did you receive RTW or RTWG ?
I am now an RTW holder. Looks like i bet the right way by buying ARIX a few weeks ago. Makes a nice change tbh - I'm always nervous about acquisition arbitrage opportunities, far too many don't happen!
Anyway - i'm in, now just have to get my head around RTW.
Started: bohercom, 13 Feb 2024 08:21
Last post: myepic, 22 Feb 2024 12:40
What is GPD?
Interesting that HL displays the $ price for RTW but when you place a deal the price is given in GPD.
I can't stand having non-rounded shareholdings so felt obliged to have a small top-up...
All the very best to new and existing LTHs.
Chard_Nick
HL done and looks OK.
...and still waiting.
Pleased to see this in today's valuation RNS:
"The Company intends to publish, at the soonest opportunity, an indicative and estimated pro forma NAV and NAV per share as at the closing date of the Transaction, reflecting the completion of the Transaction and new share issuance."
Also pleased to see they've ramped up the buy-back to take advantage of the ex-Arix sell-off. That's been more severe than I was expecting, given that many people won't even have the new shares yet. (But it doesn't alter the thesis that RTW holders should have taken the opportunity to sell and buy Arix shares instead!)
Thanks, I'm still waiting for HL & Fidelity.
Estimated NAV/share is $1.88, so the current SP is at about 31% discount.
According to HL the 12 month average discount to NAV is about 25% which would put the SP at $1.41, so we might reasonably expect a drift up towards this as the sell-off abates.
Hi 1ups1de,
Just wondering, are you invested here? Some of us Arix holders are mystified why RTW holders aren't selling their shares then buying back via Arix, ending up with extra shares for free. It just seems like an obvious arbitrage.
Please note, I'm not advising anything, not qualified to, and may have completely misunderstood the situation. I'm just trying to make sense of what's happening, so any thoughts appreciated!
At todays RTW price & $/£ exchange rate Arix valued at £1.60+. If appetite for early biotech improves the deal might prove lucrative.
Started: Oldnbald, 4 Dec 2023 12:03
Last post: Oldnbald, 15 Dec 2023 15:44
Thanks! Here is the link for the Arix board:
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareTrades.html?shareprice=ARIX&share=Arix-Bioscience
RTW NAV looking strong, a couple of detailed posts on the Arix board.
Well... I was aware of the merger but I wasn't aware of the nature of it.... shall we say. Thank you.
The obvious answer is to sack off RTW and buy Arix, as the indicative RTW share price use is way above current market - so even with a dip on Arix shareholders exiting i'd get more shares in RTW for my buck
But.. I have seen multiple 'mergers' fall by the wayside and I don't like the way this is being done. Not that I'm a commie mind you - if I thought 'yup it's gonna happen' i'd take the money with a shrug.
So whilst being sorry for arix shareholders who are being shafted, I am now in a quandry. The obvious answer is to sell everything as exiting arix shareholders will probably drive RTW price down if it happens. But the odds of it not happening are increased now, if the Times is talking about it the regulators must do something. it's not like the usual AIM fraudulent lifestyle director stuff that nobody gives a damn about. And if it gets messy RTW price will suffer, as will ARIX
I see the dates are that this will complete in Q1 2024 and be put to vote etc in same timeframe. I add that 26.1% are definite 'yes' which means that they just have to mobilise 24% to vote AYE and it's a done deal. I need to sleep on this one. pls do share anything you have and I'll do the same
Hi Oldnbald, just wondering if you'd considered Arix? I assume you're aware of the proposed merger? (See ARIX board for details - and the reaction!)
I've dipped my toe with a 5-8 year timeframe. the BIOTECH bear has been in play a long time now and I hope this represents value.