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Just like there's no point trying to de-ramp hey Ratty? ;)
Exactly the point! You know that when a legal requirement of advertising these instruments is that they state the fact that75% of retail investors lose money using them that it is basically gambling and little better than that. Are you feeling lucky punks?
Your 23:12 last night is absolutely right Jnoor123. Those poeple with a 'cunning plan' to trade this opportunity between 23rd and 28th are either being naive or being mischievous. Please don't fall for it.
There really is a lot of tosh posted here!
RR. commence trading ex-rights on 28th. If you buy shares before then they are cum rights. This talk of settlement times is another silly diversion, possibly from those trying to play games. As if they can manipulate a FTSE 100 spouting this twaddle!
It is possible that they'll be a bit of a dip on 24th. Not because the shares trades are no longer trading with the rights entilement (they are) but because they'll be a few people thinking that. I can't see it being significant. Pros and anyone with a little experience knows it's the ex date that matters and any attempt at a serious dip would get bought into.
Sp to rise over next two days get ready for take off grab a bargain in best of Britain
ALfe You are right my use of the word naked in my recent post was erroneous. I am aware of the fact that naked shorts carry a theoretically infinite risk . The failure however was not due to my research, it was merely a poor choice of word , I did in fact make my living for several years trading options , so I know how geared positions work.
My purpose has been to point out that Shorting, other than as part of a balanced position is exceptionally high risk and not appropriate for almost everybody who reads this board.
I said a while ago, here, that RR shares are now trading as effectively a short dated call option and while that has certainly increased volatility , that will almost certainly end on ex-rights day when RR shares will go back to acting like a FTSE 100 member, with it's beta of around 1.5
For any of those thinking that Ratty's post describing 3 or 4 10% moves in RR's SP post rights, is possible, that beta figure quoted above means that it would require the same number of > 6 % moves in the FTSE, ALL down and all in a short space of time. I think the probabilities of that are low.
Shorts are exceptionally profitable, the companies that offer geared investment are required by law to remind customers that 75%+ of then will lose money, so the profitability is theirs not the punters.
Could be but the 6.9 billion share dilution at 32 p will depress the share price for the shorts for years to come until major news like a vaccine, no lockdown, flights etc.
There are a lot of people gambling that the share price is going to plumit me thinks alot of people are going to lose there shirts on this one
Brokers will make exception to register ASAP as part of the RI and LSE rules and guidelines, you all will be OK
Be aware that if you buy this share from tomorrow the purchase may not be settled by 23rd as the share gets executed when you buy but only when the transaction gets settled (2 to 3 days later as with HSBC)) does the new owner go on the share register and certainly it will drop a lot on Monday.
@casapinos if you think 3SRR is a naked short, you've clearly not done any research. Naked shorts make you owe people money at the end, if you get the direction wrong and it goes wildly against your favour. 3SRR works more like a put than a short in that respect, although it is neither product. Ratty will not lose beyond his original investment on 3SRR whilst people on a naked short gone wrong do.
@RattyRy do be careful at the extremes. The 1% move to 3% move on 3SRR/3LRR decouples when the moves are extreme.
Mann123 I'm not sure whether SP will fall after the 23rd. Reason being if you sell any shares after the record date and before the ex-rights date of the 28th you transfer your nil-paid shares to the new buyer. After the 28th the SP ex-right shares will be adjusted.
Man
Buying any share at the top of the daily and weekly is always a disaster. RR is so much a short until the weekly bottoms again.
Unless the rights issue would manipulate a new technical analysis.
When's the next market crash! Probably 2031... Yawn
Don't worry, post-dilution you leave your shorts to ride the weekly down. The longs are high on the daily and weekly and have a 6.9 billion share dilution. RR is now a high short in the next market crash.
6.9/1.9 = 3.63 , 2.24/3.63 = 0.617 Therefore SP after dilution equals 61.7 approx. 62p
With 6.9 billion share dilution, there is no way the longs are ever going pump the SP again except fundamentals are excellent.
SP will definitely be between 130p and 32p.
ratty I don't really mind if you lose money , that's your choice. What I regard as unacceptable is your frequent recommendations that others copy you and your suggestion that its easy money. VERY FEW naked shorts make money , most shorts are used by clever people as a hedge against a long position ,or against convertible bonds. It is clear that you have embarked on a high risk call with very little understanding of the consequences.
You are partially right , it's not rocket science, but it is complex, which is why I have calculated that your post rights break even must be about 52p. To be in 300% profit you need a SP in the 30's, I really don't think that is likely to happen , it may, in which case well done, but it is much more probable to fail , in which case I reckon you have blown well over half of the 10k you had at the start.
mann123, I hope someone understood that, because I haven't a clue what you're on about. Perhaps it's because I gave up trying when I read 'record date'!
SP usually falls after record date 23/10/2020 as any buys will not receive rights issued. SP has to stay up until the end of 23/10 then if SP has not fallen by 24/10/2020 something else is amiss. If we have 1.9 billion shares in issue and about 6.9 billion dilutions at 32p considered at 130p price in Sept. we have a flat liner for share price or a crash coming.
Ratty's concurrent posts illustrates that he STILL doesn't get that the ex rights drop does him NO good whatsoever.
Trading.... I am afraid you are making the mistake of assuming Ratty is telling the truth and knows what he is doing . Examination of his initial posts and HIS statements on this topic on 6/7/8 OCT SUGGEST that he opened his short(value about £2k) when the SP was 150p on or before the 6th committing 20% of his portfolio value, he then claims to have topped up 6 times at SP 's from 149-199p, at SP 149p he admitted to being 40% down, by the time the SP had risen to 195p he admitted to having half his portfolio committed and was 50% down, implying he was trying to buy his way out of a hole. Given the decay element of shorts heaven knows what his current position is but he either keeps on feeding the wolves or they eat him .
I hope for his sake he is lying or exaggerating his bravado.
I suggest we start a fund to repatriate him from wherever he is now and despite my harsh words I'll contribute!
@Ratty.
I meant that you need your 3SRR to hit 199 to take your profit. By your accounting for last week, you were just shy of doing so.
Looking at today, with the FTSE tanking -
IAG down 6%
BP hitting a record low (for example)
Rolls is just down 3p. Remarkable really.
I'm not against you or others shorting at all.
My reply to Dinvesotoy, highlighting your position, was actually a swipe at his (in my view) ludicrous view that your short could cost jobs, was unethical and you should close your short.
I don't have any problem with either your, or his positions. Just to highlight to him that if you did close your short, it would have zero impact on Rolls sp. Or the company.
However, after today's robust, almost logically impossible stable sp, I do think it will be a long time till you make a hefty profit on your short.
As I say to all on these boards, good luck to you and ALL investors.
@RattyRy What's your gameplan with the 3SRR? Will you be closing it at the close of the 27th?