Member Info for Alfe

Both Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech were double.

And around 10x the cost too.

A bit worrying given that the Moderna vaccine was tested on 95 (?) people, vs the few thousands of the BioNTech/Pfizer one.

But yes, things take time to kick in. RR's short squeeze happened after US markets open the last time round, iirc. Hopefully we'll see something like that today.

If institutional shorts are closing again tomorrow (like it did on the short squeeze up to 130p), might be a good chance to trade it. If institutional longs are selling for profit then also a good chance to trade it. Made a couple of grand riding 3LRR up today so quite pleased. Watch out tomorrow and GLA. Might be especially volatile until the 12th.

Truly wasn't expecting the Pfizer COVAX news. I said earlier that I believed that RR won't be heading up in the absence of vaccine news, and it didn't seem like the news was gonna come. Clearly I was wrong. Maybe should have put more $ here than in IAG (it's now my third largest holding after GGP and EUA), but it does really reframes one's perspective when what you're expecting for a significant return in years might suddenly come in months or even weeks (for both RR and the rest of my airline stocks alike).

that, exactly, is the proposition of private equity as an industry.

fund 100 companies, even if one makes it big and 75% fails, you're still set.

@91jonmo totally concur with you. reasonability isn't a test in what final price we might get, although valuation models are what bankers use as a chip in negotiation.

there has been too many times people got mugged off. Ophir Energy's LTH can tell you loads, so do Sirius. Ophir got bought over for less than £500 million, which is frankly ridiculous given they sold off 20% of a Tanzanian gasfield for £1bn. That's just one of their multiple asset but the company got sold off for cheap even despite doing relatively decent.

At the end of the day, it's anyone's guess if we get 45p or £2.50, but either way, it's really all up to DS and what and the other big shareholders are willing to accept for. And that's the risk we all should recognise whilst holding out for the best with EUA.

same, I expect a discount too, but I don't know what the price is going to land. (does anyone know, other than DS and the crew, really?)

maybe we all need to form the Church of Dmitry Suschov to pray for more £s :P

either way, kinda silly to talk about price no? Let's just let Dimitry decide it for us all ;)

personally hopeful of a big amount, but I don't think 45p is out of the realm of impossibility. It puts us beyond a billion, which is about 3x the value of the Gemfields Pallinghurst deal UBS did as well. honestly, UBS and DLA Piper being on the deal isn't indicative of much since the range of deals they work in means it could range anywhere from tiny to effing huge.

hope you have good luck with ARV. My broker for non-US/EU/UK stocks (Saxo) was charging an arm and a leg for holding stocks on the ASX, and seeing ARV rise from 5p to 14p has been painful.

Do we have any timeline on Scally? I haven't heard anything but then I haven't been keeping track of GGP too closely as of late.

You know the US election effect has taken place right? My solar stocks (JinkoSolar, Enphase, First Solar, SolarEdge) were up by at least 10% yesterday - Jinko at 23%.

I'm hopeful for RR in the long term, but sometimes the BB sound like crazies on Steve Harvey's Family Feud screaming "good answer, good answer" while not making any sense at all

US markets open at 2:30, not 1:30...

@casapinos since you're on the SFO website, may I suggest you read the SFO press releases in February 2019 and 2017 pertaining to RR, and the DPA in the 2017 announcement too?

Again, how is it live given RR has paid up to settle charges?

Bombardier was the last one standing that the SFO hasn't gotten to in the Emirsyah Satar probe. RR doesn't supply engines for the CRJs. The probe has nothing to do with RR now nor its share price drops as far as I understand.

The Emirsyah Satar probe implicated Airbus too but it's up 10% the last week. I don't think your causation is accurate.

the only reason why it almost hit 90 yesterday was because Causeway was buying another 1.4%...

I'm so very amused. To those who claimed Goldman Sachs bought *today*, did no one read the bit that the threshold was crossed on the 26th and they notified only on the 28th?

For all we know they're just positioning to buy rights and may have very well cut their stake already (or planning to)

haha I know they don't power 80% of the planes, it's a rhetorical question ;)

I wonder why RR always seems to be in the brink of problems. RB211 got them to their knees, and Trent has issues too. Probably was a strategic mistake for them to sell their share of IAE to United Technologies in 2011 too, and never getting back into the short-haul market. I don't know why people keep saying this will be at £2 at the short term - doesn't IAG's rights issue and how the share price fluctuated give them something quite similar to compare to?

Since when has RR power 80% of all planes in the sky?

again - if long-haul civil aviation restarts in earnest, I'll accept the logic that RR might re-rate. RR does not own any part of CFM/IAE/PW (which powers all popular narrowbody types) and thus short-haul civil aviation wouldn't do much to improve their balance sheet. In fact, the retirement of 747s/757s/767s armed with RB211 (and them being older planes that need more servicing on the older engines) might imperil things as well.

magmanus, you seem to be speaking from a position of fear, and not belief. And honestly, I'm worried for your mental state.

Even the rampiest people on BBs don't sound anywhere near like you.