Member Info for Alfe

I think the pertinent question is: what is the BOD looking for in terms of their own price range? If BOD is happy with hmm, let's say, 25p (higher, but not entirely very pretty), we almost have to go with them since they control 20% of the stake. And 25p isn't entirely unreasonable for an undeveloped resource.

The ACF report they commissioned said 56p - but the important bit is: is that a high-end figure or a low-end figure for them?

No. In a takeover where a bid has been announced, it's unlikely buying would outmatch selling in a way that prices will go up. The stock market is influenced by supply/demand as well, and that's how stock prices go up/down. Heavy buying (by institutional scalpers + bidder) accompanied with heavy selling (by people who want to lock in their gains and not wait for the entire sale process to go through, or worried that the bid might be rejected outright without any other bid incoming that might cause heavier selling later on), would commensurately result in a stagnant SP.

Ian_, you make the point that you will not be selling. I won't too, at that price. But we aren't the only one holding EUA shares, and there are many more beyond the BB. I'm sure you remember the times where people were selling off at 3p or 5p at large amounts on this BB - there are some people like these who would at 15p or some low ball figure as well. Sure I do not hope, but given Dana's hostile takeover, or Ophir Energy's low-ball takeover, there is always a chance that the situation like this might arise, even if we don't like it.

I'm personally hoping 37p (valuing EUA at 1 billion pounds) or more. £1 would be nice. I'm just wary because there are so many ifs we can't control especially if EUA starts trading again.

just for academic discussion (and clearly not a case scenario I'd like since I'm invested) -

if someone puts a bid at 15p (which is a low ball), and market reopens thereafter and jumps to just under 15p, what's stopping from the bidder in turning hostile and gobbling all the shares at that price range even if the board recommends the bid be rejected?

That's not true. For a BB that knows the power of MMs and how MMs can push the price down, I'm surprised at the optimism that MMs won't try to push the price down when we return to trading. Additionally, no single bidder needs to buy 30% in a day, and no one has. They'll just match their demand with the supply available each day and keep the price steady. No one knows if people are gonna hold or sell, given how long we have been under suspension.

I do hope that the SP will soar if we return to trading, but there are ways we can get screwed over and it is important to be aware.

Dana went for around 1.7 billion pounds, so for us that's 63p per share ;)

I'll take it too :P

They can't take us out on hostile when we're suspended, yes. But IMHO a sale process was run because they felt they didn't have the deep pockets to develop MT on their own, and would need someone to come in and develop it. A bit like the Greatland-Newcrest joint venture in Havieron.

My biggest worry is getting un-suspended while the FSP is ongoing, since any bidders that might want to go hostile would just gobble up the shares whilst it's still relatively low upon opening.

Dana didn't sell for 35 pounds per share, but 18. I don't know where you're getting that information from but it is categorically false.

Also, they weren't suspended all the way throughout the sale process.

please put me down for 37p, please. I don't think it's going to be a less-than-1bn-pound deal if the London UBS M&A office is going to be involved.

I'd be a happy camper if EUA made me ~30k pounds by my 24th birthday.

I was just thinking - was CITIC and VTB just banks for the buy-side (prospective buyers), and UBS EUA's bank on the sell-side?

If so, that makes a lot of sense. And the relation with CITIC can't really be revealed, since that would possibly divulge one of the prospective buyer's identity, to everyone's detriment especially if more than one company is in talks to purchase MT/EUA.

Could be. I think EPC contract might have been negotiated for MT to get it a higher bid price as well. Sinosteel signed it with ZAO Terskaya Gornaya Kompaniya, so if EUA sells TGK to anyone, that same buyer can trigger the EPC contract themselves.

Still, I wouldn't be surprised if it's not a full sale of EUA, but only a sale of MT whilst keeping WK for our own to mine.

You might be right that there is probably some M&A activity going on wrt to MT, but DS needs shares for his hybrid coin as stated, and the only way I see Digital Metals going forward is if EUA exists in one form or another, or in the event of a full sale, a partial return in equity in a bigger company like NN.

As an aside, I don't understand why people don't like the idea of mining MT to our own or in a JV. We're always going to get less money from selling the asset outright than laying the groundwork for it, and keeping an equity stake over it.

I'm of the belief that EUA will be in a JV over MT, possibly being in a situation like GGP where they retain a minority stake of Havieron. But that means a selling of a big part (or half?) of MT in exchange for equity and for the stuff that they need to trigger the EPC contract for initial start-up.

The Lybrion blockchain has seemed to update itself to claim that it'll be a hybrid rather than a stable-ish coin, where stock equity is involved. I have a belief that DS might want to tie part of his holdings in EUA to it.

DS holds 7.2% of EUA directly and the rest via Deloan, which is shared with AS and AC. Even if he's using all of his 7.2% to create his hybrid coin (since he probably can't touch what is under Deloan) for an investment of 50m USD, that gives the company a rough expected valuation of 694m USD or 565m GBP. And I don't think DS is ever going to part with his stake wholesale. I'm not sure what the intricacies of Digital Metals will be but if it involves EUA equity, it might be telling of what they expect progress will be with MT and WK.

Seems to have been renamed to Digital Metals on the Lybrion Lab page, and EUA's name is removed.

Public sale date got pushed back to 1st December as well.

a broken clock is right twice a day. That's not the only speculation TW and others have thrown on EUA - didn't TW claim it was delisting?

Also, just noticed this but First Equity is off the RNS again. I wonder what's up.

oh TW. went to find for the article. "act foir it" "Euasia". does that dude ever proof-read?

I agree that it isn't really acceptable, but the inherent risk exists regardless on any stock market. We live in a world where Enron, NMC Health, and Luckin Coffee exists. 66 stocks delisted from AIM in 2018/9; and 82 in 2017/18. There are 41 stocks suspended for more than a year on the Singapore Exchange.

It isn't acceptable, but is it really so far out of the norm? I don't think so.

good to see a fellow under-30 here.

my initial investment in EUA is probably around or under 20% of my portfolio, but now it's at just under a third. Like you, this and GGP are my speculative stocks. Sold out GGP a bit too early at 4p when it stalled (and gold didn't seem like a good investment before Covid), but managed to get back in at an average of 7.5p.

Rest of the portfolio is a myriad of other stocks from different localities. quite a fair few aviation or aviation-related stuff (RR, IAG, Easyjet, American, United, Delta - just sold out Lufthansa the other day for a 12% profit while I wait for it to drop further). have some tech (Alibaba, JD, Momo, Sea, Wirecard, Activision) but waiting for most of the American ones to drop should a second wave come. A few energy (Shell B, Enphase, PG&E), and banks (Credit Suisse, Citi). And a sizeable portfolio in Kier. As you can see I'm a risk-taker and I fully understand the risk I'm taking. Hence my replies to people about needing to assess how much risk they can take moving forward.

daviddune, in that event, should EUA return from suspension, would it then not be better for you to sell off your shares, to alleviate your fears and also if you believe the BOD is not doing a good enough job?

I mean, I'm not gonna lie. the stock market is a scary place - AIM even much so. I honestly think you and other people need to reassess the level of risk they are fine taking with before plunging into shares.

I don't understand why everyone links CS on KIBO and to EUA. CS is a non-executive chairman on KIBO.

KIBO's issues are with Louis Coetzee and their management, and not CS and the board of directors.

Er, because that wasn't the point of my post? Plus, there's the Companies Act and everything else. assets in the ground don't disappear just like that.

Honestly, if EUA delists - I'd pay 10% of the nominal value of whatever EUA shares you have (so that means 0.01p per share) to take whatever you have. I'd pay more but no point doing so if it's worthless to you post-delist.