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Goodness me, 18 green filtered posts, there seems to be some over excited posters with too much time on their hands.
But why do we believe RKH, the board or Falklands Islands owes us anything? This is AIM not sure what the stats are but I would hazard a guess that more than 80% never get to a proper listing and most of those will go bust, share holders will moan, feel let down, feel robbed; they will imagine the board milked it for what it was worth (quite rightly in some cases) and basically lose their hard earned, but they will feel more bitter because they feel their dream has been stolen, their imagination of walking in to the Aston Martin showroom or spending a month in the Caribbean , the yacht in the med!
We should actually take some responsibility for our actions. I was going to say I don't understand why so many spend so much time here bigging up or knocking down, but actually it makes more sense for LSE; argumentative chat begets more chat, good or bad, makes no difference.
Maybe Nig et all will say its bashers trying to get the real info to disappear so REAL investors can't see it. But lets face it REAL investors don't play with AIM, they have a balanced portfolio tracking the FTSE, have a percentage in bonds; some cash on the side; maybe property; a bit in different sectors, basically a diverse portfolio. IF they were to dabble in AIM it would be back pocket, cash they can afford to lose as they are well aware it's a gamble.
I have lost spectacularly on AIM, but I have also made spectacularly on AIM, it's the nature of the beast. Our 50k in Shell or M&S for 5 years you are odds on to make a capital gain and a nice div every 6 months. Worst scenario you might be unlucky a sell at a bit of a loss but the div will have made up for it, but you won't lose everything, they wouldn't go bust but you also wouldn't double, triple or more you money. Aim you could lose it all but, you could possibly pick the right horse and get an amazing return.
Maybe some on here, are actually back in RKH (myself included) because they had a small punt in the early days, they had a few Des shares and thought "Why don't I hedge my bets, Des are mostly likely to stoke this time, but RKH has all that acreage around, they might be dragged into the limelight!" the rest is history, but those who got in then and sold in the £'s get the AIM dream.
Good luck with your strategy whatever it may be and sorry to add to the noise but really take some responsibility for your actions, venting here serves no purpose. If you really are so angry, turn up to the AGM, stand up their and speak face to face with the board; it won't make any difference but at least you might find some closure as here nothing it going to change.
LTT
LOL, Kurgan I don't have you on filter, only numpties! LMAO. I sympathise I had a spell of frustration with Desire and RKH emailing and no replies. In the end I just didn't believe anything they said and made my own judgement. I got out and put it down to experience, i'd more than covered my loses on Desire thanks to SL discovery. Don't get me wrong I did lose a hefty gain, watched it dwindle away due to my inaction. Luckily I have sold a chunk that covered my original stake and then some, but I still watched as a is five figure holding dwindled down, each week telling myself "The market has to turn, oil is the lifeblood of the planet, Falklands will be drilled soon for sure!" But I was blinded by a 20 fold gain thinking it would turn to 50 or 100 fold gain! I didn't look at the broader market, sentiment. That wasn't the boards fault, that was mine.
But anyway, I'm back in, I believe this is it, if they don't get the funding and FID this year then it's never going to happen, no matter what Nigoil and others wish for. PMO will let this go and concentrate on buying mature assets for developement. It won't be anything personal or malicious it will just be a numbers thing along with the sentiment to oil and gas industry as a whole.
However if it does come good (my own thoughts are it will) then 17p will be a distant memory. I may not ba able to walk into the Aston Martin showroom but Caribbean holidays will be on the cards. At first oil this will be in the £+ without a doubt. That's not pie in the sky, a dream it is maths, no company with such a revenue will have a market cap of £70m not when you are bringing in £200m+ a year.
But it really all comes down to UKEF and FID. If those come good and this is still around 20p I shall jump on the chance to fill my ISA as it will be a steal. I know RKH will have to pay back the development costs share but we forget we have not had to dilute (apart from the our board diluting issuing themselves shares) AND we have gone from PMO offering a 15% interest rate to now having an interest free develop,ment to first oil. That's like being given cash! Imagine if we had to stump up £300m in three months time, asuming we could get it, with an interest rate of say 6% over 4 years we would have a further £78m in interest. So PMO and Navitas are not only covering our costs, they have saved us some hefty costs. If our share of costs would have been more, then it's even more we are saving.
Anyway, lets see what happens, swallows, amazons, turkeys, numpties flying whatever, it's a side show. Any cash from the courts will be flittered away on hobnobs and pensions for the board I'm sure, so its meaningless. The only thing that will keep RKH afloat is SL going ahead, so lets not fool ourselves.
Good luck LTT
Hi LTT. Some excellent posts but I just wanted to give you a heads up on something. Notably your comment:
“ AND we have gone from PMO offering a 15% interest rate to now having an interest free develop,ment to first oil.”
Rockhopper have been exceptionally disingenuous on this. The interest free portion only covers that part of the development not covered by the senior debt. Rockhopper will actually be paying interest on its share of the senior debt (which I’ve been told will have a rate of some 5-7%). The RNS only mentioned this implicitly, and the presentation was outright misleading.
You may have been aware of this already, though, so apologies if so.
Hi Rpoodle,
Thanks for correcting me, you are right I was mislead, suppose on the plus side 6/7% is far better than 15%. I should have looked at this a bit more closely be an interesting point to bring up at the AGM, no doubt the board are currently praying some cracking news will have come by then and all will be forgotten about misleading info and disappearing free carry along with giving away acreage for seemingly nothing. Although if giving away those things gets the funding, partner and FID it’s better than winding up the company for sure.
Either way interesting times ahead I hope.
LTT
I wonder what the boards plans are if we get everything cracking? With FID and a rig heading to the Falklands and everything lining up will they or are they allowed to look elsewhere for funding their share? It was always touted that Moody was well connected to the city and a whizz at making deals so surely there would be options to borrow at a better rate. Wouldn’t want dilution to pay for it though, once the risks are greatly reduced he goes cap in hand to allow the city snouts in, diluting the long suffering. Again something to bring up at AGM.
LTT
longtermthinker,
Are you implying that 5-7% isn't a proper rate to borrow for an AIM listed Oil company ? Sounds bloody good to me !
Balls. I just checked my emails, the estimated figure was 6-8% (not 5-7%). Apologies to everyone. Rockhopper’s CFO gave me that figure, but it’s important to note that he was very clear that the range is merely an estimate at this stage.
Good afternoon LTT
You commented on funding " are they allowed to look elsewhere for funding their share"
EDISON report dated 10th January clearly states no further fund raising is required of RKH. EDISON have been clearly getting information direct from RKH as they are pretty precise on the year end cash figure; $27 m
www.edisongroup.com/publication/sea-lion-funding-outlook-strengthened/25927/
Extract;
"Financials
Rockhopper ended H119 with c $27m of cash on the balance sheet and no debt, in line with our estimates. With the disposal of Abu Sennan, our forecast Italian asset capex and SG&A are covered for the coming years at c $5.4m pa. As a consequence of the Navitas farm-in, Rockhopper is fully funded through to Sea Lion Phase 1 project completion given the newly agreed interest-free loan from Navitas and Premier. We are accounting for this partnership loan in the company’s balance sheet; however, we do not believe Rockhopper will need to access any additional funding for Sea Lion Phase 1 development. Funding for the project to the joint venture is expected to be split into vendor financing, export credit/bank finance and upstream partner equity."