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Not exactly a Head Fake but, nonetheless, RDS moved back up rather swiftly after opening at 1544 - I had to move smartly to buy back my 1680+ sale at a good price. The bounce was quite possibly due to re-investment of today's dividend payment by some investors- for once it may not have been a bad day to do it, although it may well slip back again over coming days, especially if Brent continues to slide. I'm now 'equal weight' - so not in a hurry to add more unless there's a very convincing trading opportunity. https://invst.ly/wxtid .
There seems to be good support around 1545, although today's bounce may have exaggerated the strength of it.
Halifax (Lloyds) paid up, I think sometime after 9.
mine came through ok this morning with HL!
Mine was in with XO around mid-day.
I left AJ Bell, earlier this year, high charges, and useless service.
Had my II but no AJ Bell yet........
Shame.......Good day to buy as well.......
Looking at tonight's Brent price of $72, I'm anticipating around 1550 tomorrow for RDSb, which would be fine from my buy-back perspective. https://invst.ly/wxinc (chart is up to Friday's 16.30 close, so weekend fall in Brent is not shown)
Well, I'm sticking tomorrow's divi straight back in. As far as I can see, anything much under £18 is a screaming buy, long term. Short term it may well drift below £15 or even lower, but I've now topped up almost 50% since the covid crash, and the divis are (overall) almost back to 2019 levels. If/when they get back to 47c/q I'll be creaming it.
RDS generally favour share buy backs as opposed to special dividends, they are also keen to lower gearing and as such prioritise reducing debt. A special dividend may come, but (in my view) is of low likelihood.
The whole landscape is in flux again, but mid/long term prospects for RDS is strong, their energy transition is in the implementation stage and the Traditional cash cow segments are delivering strong revenues . The recent alternative energy purchases are a bit of a low cost punt, but there is more behind their strategy than simply acquiring EV stations, wind farms etc…. They have a strong chance of success IMHO
I might not always like it but to me everything has Its season just like in fashion including Oil & Gas, for example we all know that oil producers pump more in the summer even when power generation needs are low because consumption is high due to people traveling for holidays (by plane or car) or to see families and friends in the country and vice versa in the winter. To me oil and RDS for medium to long term is upward from last year’s low, but even in a definite momentum to the upwards/downwards there will be what I call intermediate rallies and reactions to the opposite of the main momentum, that’s why stock price behaviour is so important to me. That’s excluding any major shocks like last year at the start of the pandemic or any unknowns in the future.
So to understand the price direction I have my own indicators or pointers to tell me where the stock price wants to go and I just watch the price movements behaviour, i don’t predict where it will go as much I would want to because I truly believe that you should stick to what works for you and learn to improve it.
Like my previous posts the following are my own indicators to the Downside based on the recent higher high 1801.40 made on 20/10/2021 and last year’s Lower Low 866.40 made on 28/10/2020, and also are the closing prices simplicity.
1 - 1665
2 - 1581
3 - 1444
To me the above targets are still what I would term normal reactions and so far the recent low 1556.40 made on 26/11/2021 is below the second target but not much by my term so I’m closely watching it atm, but if it closes say 1530 or below then I will be watching how close it gets to the third target or if it reverses b4 that.So let’s see what the follow-ups hold.
I hope it doesn’t go this far below but if it does that then I’ll be watching next:-
1 - 1334 which is 50% of the rally from the Low 866.40 to the high 1801.40 (my own warning sign), then
2 - 1283.60 summer Low made on 28/05/2021 from the high 1518 made on 12/02/2021 which is above the previous low 1159.94 made on 12/03/2003 from the High 2218.93 made on 12/06/2001 (my own danger sign for my avg 14.08 to cut the losses short).
Please note that these are my own price targets, pointers and guides of Price movement and not advice or predictions of what will be. IMHO GLA DYOR
well as i expected a lockdown is on the cards. looks a very good buying opp if you dont mind waiting. below £15 could come into new year i fear. maybe a special divi would stop the fall being big. maybe some will buy shares with their divi from monday. but i dont see to much uprise over the next month. lets hope i wrong.
Deer Park refinery in Texas to the Mexican national oil company PEMEX has been delayed into 2022 as the US Committee on Foreign Investment continues to review the transaction.
Spiking EU gas prices push up Asian LNG.
Germany's energy regulatorBNetzA said it does not expect the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, owned by Gazprom to be launched in the first half of 2022, sending gas prices higher.
Adding/divs on market dips if & when!
gla
There again, Dividend in Monday, so there may be some topping up going. I bought another tranche at15.91 today , just in case they rise, then I can pull out dividend, otherwise, buy at a lower rate, covering both ends.
Well, yesterday’s RDSb rise (along with the rest of the market and Brent) did buck the trend that I originally posted on Wednesday (dotted line here), causing me to think my buy-back opportunity in the 1500’s was gone. However, the downward trend has resumed today with a couple more points ‘refining’ my earlier view of it : https://invst.ly/wx4gb (Brent - rebased - in Green)
I hope Getafgrip is right about 1600 being near the floor - I certainly agreed with many of his comments earlier in this thread and there does seem to be support in this region. Maybe self-interest is causing me to think that the price has further to fall - we often see what we want to see - but I do think RDS could drop further before ultimately revisiting 1800 on the way further up.
Getafgrip
Excellent piece thank you.
Mark
MG - it might be that the futures of Shell and BP become even more aligned. My first reaction to the out of the blue sale of the Permian shale assets by Shell, was that they were tidying up the assets ready for a big acquisition. Cutting out any Government objections relating to competition, monopoly, conflicts of interest etc etc.
BP evidently tripled its shale output after buying the shale assets of BHP in 2018, much of which was in the Permian Basin, then Shell now suddenly bails out of Permian altogether. Shell is arguably accepted as bigger on Trading and chemical related activities. Also Shell has focused down on - is it seven major integrated refining hubs worldwide - much more efficient, but also reducing the number of local/and specialist monopolies/duopolies etc that adding Shell and BP assets together would create. This has involved the sale of numerous refineries, many of which seem quite profitable.
Also the creation of Shell plc has the immediate benefits that Shell would not be trying to take out by merger or acquisition the UK's biggest oil major in BP, as Shell would become number one - and also the UK Government would be more likely to accept the merger of two big UK companies, rather than an Anglo-Dutch oil major taking over or merging with the UK's big super-major in BP. Also there may be greater consolidation and merger pressure to gain sufficient critical mass to become a major player in the green energy revolution. And because BP and Shell are so closely aligned anyway, the cost savings would be stunning.
I had forgotten, but Shell-Mex & BP had a joint marketing operation from 1932 to 1976 in this country. Also it revives the takeover and merger speculation that has been around before. Lord Browne took BP to the brink of a mega-merger with Royal Dutch Shell in 2004 only to be thwarted at the last minute by opposition from a few of his own board members, the former chief executive has claimed. "We missed the boat" argued Browne in his autobiography. Who knows.
"Don't hang your hat on a special dividend; that could happen, or maybe it will be invested."
===========================================================================
Share buy-backs?!
"Decisions will be made on the Permian distribution to shareholders - with a likelihood of a Special Dividend."
$7bn for share buybacks: about $1.5bn spent until now, $5.5bn to go.
What happens with the remaining $2bn is undecided. Don't hang your hat on a special dividend; that could happen, or maybe it will be invested.
Getafgrip
I second that from Never. A great analysis. A more sussinct version of my BP ramblings.
Looking forward to a great few years ahead.
Only a BP shareholder but our companies, and our fortune's, are fairly aligned.
Great day all
Hi getafgrip,
Have to admit that is a very very good analysis of where we are.
Of all the oil and gas companies you have to think that long term Shell and also BP have to be the two safest and certainly day by day their plans seem to be becoming clearer......
After a reasonable 2021 heres to decent 2022....
It's a bit of a minefield second-guessing share prices, but I think £16 is close to a new floor, Omicron permitting. Yes, down from £18, but the difference is only 11.11%, which is par for the course with commodity based shares. I would be content/happy to buy at this price, as looking only a short time ahead:
The New Year will see Shell a month away from a bumper trading update towards the end of January.
The oil & gas prices looks likely to hover around $70 (oil) until the end of December, with gas continuing its dizzying rise - but prices are literally only having to hold up for a fortnight to seal a great Final Quarter.
Worries over inflation levels will start to focus on investing in companies that can pass on inflation to customers.
The US Senate has agreed to an increase in the US Debt Ceiling, which will probably amount to $2.5 trillion & postpone any decision on this saga until mid-February 2022.
Inflationary pressures will make Shell's decision to pay down debt look brilliant.
Shale assets will always be a very capital-intensive & contentious avenue for extracting oil and gas assets, so why not sell them on a high market price opportunity.
Decisions will be made on the Permian distribution to shareholders - with a likelihood of a Special Dividend.
It is likely that the Ordinary Dividend will be increased.
The likely impact of Omicron will be closer to being determined - bearing in mind that if it stays as giving mild symptoms and in tandem produces antibodies to COVID19 it could actually conversely be part of the solution. Whatever happens you have to assume that 2-years on the World has greater capability and expertise in dealing with COVID19 whatever its latest variant.
Shell is in the process of breaking the shackles of being registered in Holland & expending much of its energy working for the Dutch courts.
The powerful consensus of the Shell plc vote has directionally unified the shareholder base to look optimistically forward to massive change and a bright new future.
Shell is in a fantastic position to look at a significant acquisition in addition to the smaller acquisitions that are made regularly.
The Shell share price has been seen to double since October 2021. As GettingBy has detailed new production opportunities are withering on the vine & this can only increase the OP in the short/medium term. Even if Putin is not sabre-rattling & invades the Ukraine, it is not going to put downward pressure on the OP, more likely the opposite. Putinomics, Nordstream 2 & his Foreign Policies are not going to reduce oil or gas prices any time soon.
I am sure there is a downside, but on balance I am very optimistic. I sympathise with anyone buying shares in the £20s say, but the Panicdemic hit all investors hard, and if Shell is now only a third down from buying at £24, that in my view is obviously painful but not too bad & the difference will probably be made up over the coming year, unless there is
Totally agree with you there Boyo, so far I had 2 companies who went bust on me the last being Northern Rock in 2008 but managed to finally sell to saved 2/3rd of my original capital but the first one was in 2007 and lost all. Like you I learned that hard lesson to keep an eye out on where I risk my money in 2008 and at least saved some of my money and is not a tuition fee I want to pay again, that my motto now is “to keep my losses small but to let my profits run” till cash in that too.
BEagle: I think that if you hold shares, or almost any investment for that matter, then you have to be proactive. Years ago I naively thought I could ‘buy and forget’ . That led to two fundamental mistakes:
Not paying enough attention to the ‘buy’ price and the timing of it.
Thinking that it would ultimately accumulate in value without further management.
No matter how good a given stock is, it does need to be managed - if only to check and confirm that it is performing. It’s so easy to watch a share drift ever lower with the harder decisions invariably about selling rather than buying, especially when that involves accepting that a loss has been made. The notion that sp’s must ultimately return to previous highs traps a lot of investors.
I find the very simplest chart of an sp’s trends, supports and resistances is sufficient to tilt the odds just a bit more in my favour - the common mistake is to regard them as predictive rather than indicative: it’s when the price breaks from the trend or a support/resistance line that it indicates a change of direction that might need some attention.
As mentioned, I’m in top-up mode at the moment. With the downward trend continuing today, the next level of support in the region of 1560 and a previous trend (blue) currently at about 1575, I feel my target of £1 gain on my last ‘sell’ at around 1680 is in range. https://invst.ly/ww7yw
The dilemma, of course, is whether, assuming it reaches my target, I should simply be content with that or wait to see if it drops further. 1540 is clearly possible if Brent slips below $70 again. Below 1520 would point to a more serious and widespread market correction IMV. Cash is handy in those circumstances - and I'm keeping a prudent amount of that back.
Boyobach, a perfectly valid way of trading oneself out of a paper loss. A more proactive method then simply waiting for sentiment to change for oilers. I suppose it would depend on how 'hands on' one is.....but a valid way of reducing ones average! The timing of the trading buys & sells would 'probably' be enhanced by charting....not in everyones skillset (definitely not mine).