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AIA continued its fall in HK overnight….ona 1 year basis it is now slightly worse than Pru.
Not sure this bodes well for Wednesday’s results….but I hope Pru stresses the positives in the future.
Yeah, patterns don't really mean anything more than a change might be happening or nothing at all. A lot of people assume they're definite and don't look for confirmation.
I find price action, macd and multiple timeframe analysis are quite reliable on larger timeframes, which is how I trade over periods of 2-3 months. But nothing's perfect.
FWIW there is something in the charting spotting patterns, but unless it can be corroborated with actual trading data / events to confirm the cause of the market behaviour I don’t have any belief in it.
As an example (happened in the last two weeks) I have a share that a chartist declared had a death cross (a very bad thing) - the share proceded to gain 30% in the following week. There has clearly been a change in sentiment, but it was not because of the death cross…..The falls leading to the death cross and the subsequent rally occurred with no company specific information and some adverse geo-politics. In my view there was no reason to support the death cross assessment and it proved an unreliable indicator. I am sure there are also lots of affirmed cases cited by chart followers…..but that does not make it reliable imho..
Yeah... Thought as much. Zero thoughts on the matter.
Thanks mate, and your view is?
I think you made the correct statement when you said.
i can't tell what will happen next, it depends on your time frame.
utter garbage and crystal ball bull gazing.
jmho.
SP often moves with regards to inflation/economic data which is of course volatile
oil price up on supply concerns ...market wobbly again !
Awesome, forgot to link to daily chart: https://ibb.co/PT0CDS9
Of course, having said that, the price has gone south... Standard.
I can't tell what will happen next, and it depends on your timeframe for trading/investing. Look at the weekly chart here: https://ibb.co/w0dfd3s you will hopefully see the long term down trend that's been influencing this stock price since Jan 2018. After that you'll see the current down trend from end Jan 2023 which is controlling price today.
I see a nice double bottom pattern forming between 8th Nov 2021, 23rd Jan 2023 and we're at the bottom of the 2nd bottom, which typically (not guaranteed) suggests a big reversal, and when you look at how depressed the share price has become since 2018, there is a strong probability of a reversal (not guaranteed).
If you look at price on the weekly vs the current trend, you'll see this week broke through it and if you look at the MACD (I prefer to use 21 55 8 for clearer trending) you'll see a divergence, where price has hit similar low levels, but not lower lows, and yet MACD has produced a higher low. This is another indicator of reversal. Finally, if you look at the MACD/Signal, they've almost converged, so now I would look to the daily timeframe to see what's going on there.
From the daily chart, you can see from price action that the lower lows are becoming less severe. From the MACD you can see that there's divergence which indicates reversal, and current price action has broken through the downtrend line and is currently reacting to the daily 50MA. If price stays above the trend line, and if it makes a higher high, I'd say we're in reversal.
With regard to flat, sharp up, or down trend re-establishing, it all depends on macro, RNS flow, and watching the price action.
But, DYOR and don't blame me if it all goes wrong :)
Swanley, if I understand correctly you the down trend is not as strong as it was and there may be signs of a change coming…..can you tell if that will be a flat period or sharp up and what are the chances that the down trend will re-establish itself as the dominant direction?
Bit of price action so far today, dropped down to 4H 20MA then reacted violently back up to 810 currently. MACD will break zero line today most likely, daily MACD showing uptrend and weekly at the end of it's downturn. This looks like reversal here.
By c.820 price will be challenging the long term downtrend. Fingers crossed here.
JATW
Well they have a strong free cash surplus, so now is the time to decide what to do with it , and I suspect they will go more for BB ( seems very popular move right now) than say a special dividend or changing the dividend policy too much...but ... remains to be seen ..but decisions need to be made on use of cash surplus
I would rather see Pru hike its dividend substantially rather than a BB.
It does not yield much and the compensating SP growth seems non-existent.
They paid out 100% of what they earned in dividend and buy back…..last two years they have bought 3.6bn x2 and it has done them no favours….
Pru needs to up its dividend rather than BB as it pays a low dividend - if it were a UK Life Office we would expect 70p for an £8 share price….they say there is growth, then invest in the business and pay better dividends to shareholders to see the share price rise.
FT suggests that AIA missed profit estimates which was why their SP dipped ...so everything is always down to what is expected of you !!
AIA have been in the same share price decline as PRU ( since Jan 2023) although PRU seems to have been hit harder in % terms ...both SP are volatile and AIA share price has fallen on their results and PRU now opening down with continued volatility
Both companies are no doubt making progress internally and ready to take opportunities but the sector is out of favour with the markets ...
AIA did a share buy back and I half expect PRU to announce one ...remains to be seen at the Results on March 20th
Results today NBP +33% to US$4bn driven by HK
Operating profit US$6.2bn
Dividend +5%
Will Pru better these results?
Yes 20th March
as expected ..moving higher as Quarterly Option move towards expire day and Results day approaches ...share was oversold by the Put sellers - IMO
I except that internally the company will have made progress despite some of the external macro issues surrounding inflation/economies .....but... looking now for a move forwards in H2 of the calendar year
plenty of growth opportunities in Asia ..China still a huge market for opportunities especially within their targeted Bay Area and Beijing Areas IMO
Straight thru Resistance 1 & 2, heading for Resistance 3 (796.2710, 804.3430, 826.7570) all in one day. Read across from AIA ? Full year results Wednesday week.
PRU reports on the 20th March?
AIA reports on Thursday (after HK close)….Q3 showed positive progress with value of new business ahead 35% on 2022 and China up 20% in Q3.
It will be interesting to see what AIA reports…but those figures dont merit the hammering Pru and AIA share prices have taken…
Broken through the downtrend from 27 Jan 2023 on the daily. Consolidation since Jan 2024 and recent action suggests this is going north.
Thanks for your thoughts Mary. I share your confidence that this will recover, hopefully sooner rather than later and I hope it doesn't go near the £5. That would be stressful! I prefer your £9 and up thesis!
100% will recover but from what base. I'm in and averaged down already, slight loss. Adding at further significant falls.
I remember trading this for £6 to £12 and happy to try again, easing in.
£8 no prob, £9 / £10 perhaps. £5 first, who knows?