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Succinct discussion here of China's NdPr market pricing manipulation and what needs to be done if the west wants to break China's choke-hold with their own supply chains:
https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/higher-prices-needed-to-develop-ex-china-rare-earths-supply
No punches pulled on how difficult private investment in new supply chains has become:
'At current rare earth prices no planned rare earth projects outside of China can achieve a 15% return on investment, according to Benchmark’s Rare Earth Forecast. Almost 40% of pipeline ex-China rare earth mines require prices of between $75/kg to $85/kg, according to Benchmark. 15% of this pipeline requires even higher prices, at above $85 a kilogram'.
and, even though low RE prices maintained by China are hitting their own internal producers' profits hard in the last 6 months:
'Adding to the difficulties for Western miners is the fact that Chinese mines have also been ramping up supply, despite lower prices. Beijing announced a third rare earth mining and smelter quota in late 2023, rather than the normal two per year. As a result, the PrNd market is expected to be in a surplus out to 2026'
First quarter 2024 anaysis shows that non-China investment in rare earths supply nevertheless substantially increased to $1.5bn, but largely government-sourced, with private investment trailing badly at $0.4bn.
However, according to Benchmark, 'no Chinese rare earth miners reach “good practice,” in terms of their (ESG) sustainability performance, compared to 100% of mining companies in Australia who reach this grade'.
So the answer seems to lie in 'ESG pricing' . The US is already embarked on setting up a pricing mechanism which incorporates surcharges for bad ESG fundamentals associated with China's rare earths extraction (and more notably Myanmar's), to create a level-playing field of sustainable world-market NdPr prices. This needs to happen in months rather than years.
Having my post remove doesn't change the fact that the much promised funding hadn't turned up and that there has been no meaningful outcomes here for quite awhile. Come March 2025, the only thing I expect to change is the SP having fallen even further!
I'd go one further. If we're not funded by then there will be no share price at all..
Interesting removal of posts considering all covered the question asked in the first place.
Like you say, doesn't change anything.
Lewis - I asked for Eloro's rascist post to be removed. That triggered the removal of the entire string. Nothing more complicated than that.
Have received confirmation that the loan note extension has been granted. no further details were given, and it will not be published. Not being hidden, the question was asked, and an answer was received. I'm sure if anyone else feels like contacting the company directly, the same answer would be given.
Thank God for that!
Thank You Mumbles.
They must be confident considering they granted an extension.
What choice do they have? They are balls deep.
I know the feeling...
Through choice Lewis......
400% tariff on Chinese EVs by USA. That is 400% on Chinese NdPr prices when you think about it.
Doesn't quite work that way Tony. Assuming an EV retails for 30K USD and the dealer is on a healthy 10% margin, then the landed cost included duty is 24.5 K, including 25% duty. Ie China landed cost is a shade under 20K, after new duty of 100%, plus a dealers reduced margin of say 5%, then retail cost is 40 K ish. China EVs apparently have margins in the region of 20%, which they will have to reduce. So they will make 10% . Realistically 100% increase in duty, translates to roughly 30% increase in the retail price. Assuming 1kg of NdPr per 100hp magnet , then the magnet cost for a basic EV won't exceed $200. Out of the total production cost.
mumbles/tony - re: us tariffs action on china. it's not just evs now subject to new tariffs - the latest us trade restrictions also includes new 25% import tariff on permanent magnets in 2026, and 25% on critical minerals (not including res though) in 2025.
by continuing to avoid imposing tariffs on rare earth minerals, the us is obligingly signalling to china it's chronic weakness/exposure over re supply chains.
china has previously raised its own import tariffs on us rare earth minerals for refining in china in retaliation to a wide range of us tariffs imposed by trump.
i'd be amazed if china didn't do the same again now. it's in a very strong position to squeeze the us and eu by restricting ndpr magnet grade raw metal exports, hiking its own import tariffs for non-china mined rare earths which still have to be refined in china, preventing the export of re refining and processing equipment/technology/ip to us and eu, and introducing punitive export embargoes on shipment of ndpr permanent magnets to the west. only japan, germany, france and us have permanent magnet manufacturing and they all depend on china for the pure ndpr powders.
china can survive for many months/years even, just producing evs and wind turbines for its internal market, but also has the non-us/eu world markets of africa, asia-pacific, middle-east, india etc. it has also stockpiled quite a lot of re's/gold for a rainy day. it has an ongoing programme to develop factories in 3rd-party countries like mexico which will be able to export to the us. it also is investing in many off-shored partnership/co-operative projects to build basically chinese-sourced infrastructure projects in the tariff-imposing countries themselves - eg: the jlr battery mega-factory at taunton.
i don't think it's going to be very long now until we'll see china mobilising its re economic warfare ****nal against the west.
300% price rise in ndpr metals and magnets coming down the line??
(imho- dyor- this is not investment advice, etc etc)
Hopefully LSE won't remove all upper-case this time - who knows?
Mumbles/Tony - re: US tariffs action on China. It's not just Ev's now subject to new tariffs - the latest US trade restrictions also includes new 25% import tariff on permanent magnets in 2026, and 25% on critical minerals (not including REs though) in 2025.
By continuing to avoid imposing tariffs on rare earth minerals, the US is obligingly signalling to China it's chronic weakness/exposure over RE supply chains.
China has previously raised its own import tariffs on US rare earth minerals for refining in China in retaliation to a wide range of US tariffs imposed by Trump.
I'd be amazed if China didn't do the same again now. It's in a very strong position to squeeze the US and EU by restricting NdPr magnet grade raw metal exports, hiking its own import tariffs for non-China mined rare earths which still have to be refined in China, preventing the export of RE refining and processing equipment/technology/IP to US and EU, and introducing punitive export embargoes on shipment of NdPr permanent magnets to the West. Only Japan, Germany, France and US have permanent magnet manufacturing and they all depend on China for the pure NdPr powders.
China can survive for many months/years even, just producing EVs and wind turbines for its internal market, but also has the non-US/EU world markets of Africa, Asia-Pacific, Middle-east, India etc. It has also stockpiled quite a lot of RE's/gold for a rainy day. It has an ongoing programme to develop factories in 3rd-party countries like Mexico which will be able to export to the US. It also is investing in many off-shored partnership/co-operative projects to build basically Chinese-sourced infrastructure projects in the tariff-imposing countries themselves - eg: the JLR battery mega-factory at Taunton.
I don't think it's going to be very long now until we'll see China mobilising its RE economic warfare a(rs)enal against the West.
300% rise in NdPr metals and magnets coming down the line??
(IMHO- DYOR- This is not investment advice, etc etc)
Https://www.mining.com/crma-rare-earth-elements-a-potential-blindspot-for-eu-policymakers-and-industry-report/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CThe%20outlook%20for%20rare%20earths
Courtesy of cadellin on rainbow rare board.