The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Tesla, I honestly don't think you are being Walter Mitty re green hydrogen. I'd been thinking blue hydrogen as a stepping stone tied in with Morocco's desire to build green hydrogen power stations. My thought's were Massey have an abundance of ammonia which can be used to produce blue hydrogen, ammonia is also imported by Morocco to make as they are the biggest phosphate miners in the world and it is mixed with phosphate to produce fertilizer..
I've also been interested in CHAR CEO, Adonis Pourolis who has his eye on the future re o & g needs to move into renewables. He's moving into wind turbines in Morocco and wind turbines are used to make green hydrogen.- He also used to be CEO of phosphate miner SXX. He is also.largest shareholder in RBW, also in Africa which mine the elements needed to build wind turbines.
Wouldn't be surprised if there wasn't some co operation between PRD and CHAR..all will be revealed in.the fullness of time.
Lochnez- I was just thinking aloud re Atlantic LNG; nothing really, no evidence, the musings if a dreamer.. but they are singled out re CO2 commissions in T &T so obviously a serious offender. If we can help them out by reducing their carbon footprint I'm sure there must be some reward, cheap gas or carbon credits.
Lochnez
yes, you are totally correct re the names of the differing types of units...thank you
None of us KNOW how the onion (brilliant ) is going to peel...
but this is a TIDDLER...in three major deal areas...which may well be interlaced
'BTW'... (it is potentially really important )
had anyone else spotted the 'volcanics /reservoir' reference by PG in his interview with Donald Leggatt...early August 2020
for 'volcanics' ... you might want to consider pumice stone
Whilst I am writing on the subject of porosity and permeability (!!)
Some here might be interested as to WHY Sound had such appalling permeability .. in the upper Triassic
it was turgid old mudstones
the porosity was also sub 8% from memory ...but that is of NO use without decent permeability
As I have posted before several times:
at the simplest level
Hydrocarbon ENERGY is a product of
charge x porosity x permeability
(of course for 'charge' one needs several things to have occurred)
I talk about ENERGETIC HYDROCARBONS
as anyone will tell you that Morocco has a lot of hydrocarbons...
but it is only energetic hydrocarbons that are of great value
I have posted extensively on this subject before...
so an hour wandering through my previous posts
might be of some interest to a ... I am sure...very limited readership
ATB
Hello Nigel, production from Rams head would be a good result for PRD. As to the benefit of injecting gas into depleted reservoir, that’s for capacity reasons long term I guess. It reduces the size of the unit you would need to provide gas, as there is already a large volume regasified product ready to go into the grid at the critical times. Maybe I’m not understanding it correctly of course...
Btw PT, happy to hold my hands up when I’m wrong - I had forgotten about the Golar Hilli FLNG vessel that operates for Perenco offshore Cameroon. That is an example of a much more modestly sized unit. So as per your comments there could be an outside chance of something like that appearing if Eire wanted to get serious as an exporter of gas (which doesn’t seem likely...)
Its a red herring imo Loch, the real plan is to just produce from Ram Head. CCS requires depleted reservoir volume so why add quantities of additional LNG into what is intended to be a closed system? Yes there are two depleting and depleted gas reservoirs to use. Complex, honest opinions please.
Hi PT, MEM,
It’s all conjecture but in my view there is simply no commercial case that would warrant an FLNG unit developing gas from Rams Head. It’s just too expensive to execute. There is not enough gas in place to warrant the capex, and it also has easy conventional development options. PRD have earmarked it in past presentations as a reservoir where larger volumes of regasified LNG can be stored underground for times of high demand. That’s a different kettle of fish and not to be confused with FLNG in the truest sense as I described in earlier post..
Unless it has been superseded, current concept is two options of subsea tie back: https://www.energy-pedia.com/news/ireland/predator-announces-conceptual-ram-head-gas-field-development-176574
Hi P/Tesla, I agree re Ram’s Head. Perhaps with Massey as a partner (Financial) we can re-enter Ram’s Head (as per desk top study) and unlock vast wealth.....
If it was pulled off it would be amazing, but I wondered about FLNG at Rams head?!
A couple of thing to watch in the next fortnight
1 PVR/LOGP re Barryroe funding
2 on the Morocco front perhaps SDX news, given they are using the star valley rig for their drill before ours (IMO).
Re 1 above, if barryroe is a goer, why not Irelands biggest undeveloped gas discovery at rams head too?
Hi GRH, apologies our messages must have crossed in the air...
Agree nothing is off the table where PRD and PG is concerned. If it is ‘best fit’ then they will adapt and make things happen.
More as an aside for posters who aren’t closely in touch with the LNG production/transport chain - we should make the distinction between true FLNG and floating liquefaction. FLNG is unbelievably capex intensive and has so far been used to target large stranded gas fields. It takes the full production, processing and liquefaction offshore - Shell Prelude FLNG, and the Petronas FLNG units are the only ones in operation to my knowledge and nothing like that would be considered for conversion of Moroccan onshore gas. Operational issues on these projects are also well documented.
The type of vessel you may be referencing would fall under ‘FLSO’ floating liquefaction, storage and offloading. These units are simpler because there is no gas processing necessary prior to liquefaction (simply because this has been done onshore prior). The major benefit there in relation to Morocco would be the agility - an onshore LNG export terminal is a permanent investment commitment. FLSO could be leased as required...
I just love the PRD onion - the more you look the more options are available to make the excellent fundamentals work (and maximise the value)
Hi PT, maybe not a T&T ‘partner’, but possible to source LNG from Atlantic LNG. The choice of source for export LNG is not actually that wide (especially when you rule out the US terminals for fracked gas reasons). Don’t see any reason that a direct transatlantic crossing from T&T wouldn’t compete with Asian sources.
With Petronas wanting to divest itself of liabilities for the Kinsale infrastructure, and PRD hoping to inherit, there must have been some discussions I guess, maybe they’ve come full circle and PN want in...
I revisited one of the corporate presentation updates and there is a reference to Morocco LNG under ‘non-core discretionary new ventures’. Shows it has been considered but I agree very unlikely to come to fruition.
Morning
Lochnez/Tesla et al
Great discussion...thank you
I know that there exist combined liquefaction and storage vessels...
vessels anchored offshore
from which, transport vessels can fill up/move the liquid gas
As to tie up between Morocco /Ireland...
I agree it sounds unlikely
but we are already seeing the Poole route open up...much trade will by pass EU!
We are talking about Ireland getting its 'safety reserve'...
ie fill in the gaps when everything else fails...which it does and will
It does depend on how much gas PRD discovers and what then happens with the licences
but PG et al are dealing at country strategic level
I have not seen such thing before with (currently) tiddler outfits
Not on much today as full agenda/have some things I must get out pre deadlines
ATB
Well my guess might be wrong or there may be a combo of partners. I'll be surprised if we have a Trinidad partner on ireland though. And I'll be even more surprised if LNG is sourced from Morocco. Exciting to watch it play out. I also think there could be a green hydrogen link, but maybe I'm getting a bit Walter Mitty with that comment!
Interesting one PT. in the Irish Business times article that is sometimes posted on this BB (with the 26billion valuation by the independent expert) the following extract is found:
“ Predator told the CRU it was “very keen to start the regulatory and environmental process as soon as possible,” as it already had a floating LNG tanker assigned by a Norwegian company.”
I think it’s a terminology mistake in the journalism and the ‘tanker’ should actually read FSRU.
The only two Norwegian providers of FSRU, and pretty much the market leaders by qty, are Hoegh and Golar (actually not HQ’ed in Oslo but effectively Norwegian).
I’m not saying you’re wrong of course, will be very interested to find out.
Hi LN, I mean FSRU and LNG.
https://www.petronas.com/our-business/gas-and-new-energy/about-liquefied-natural-gas
Hi PT, do you mean as the FSRU provider?
My educated guess for an LNG partner on Ireland is Petronas.
https://www.kinsale-energy.ie/about-us.html
https://www.petronas.com/media/press-release/petronas-becomes-worlds-first-produce-lng-two-floating-facilities
https://www.hydrocarbons-technology.com/comment/morocco-lng/
Even if losts of gas is found in Morroco, I'd be surprised if it was exported as LNG. Morroco needs it and has more of an interest in importing the stuff IMO.
https://www.whitecase.com/publications/alert/morocco-gas-power-project
Hello Nicodemus,
I think you are right that T&T would be top contender for supply source of LNG. There are a couple of things I would challenge in your note - why would PRD get access to LNG at peppercorn prices? Surely with the main shareholders of Atlantic LNG being Shell and BP, it’ll be at market rate? No direct link to any revenue generated by CO2 EOR. Also I don’t believe the FSRU concept qualifies as an existing license to be honoured, it requires additional consents (I may be incorrect). That obligation relates only to Irish field assets/licence areas.
However what is very interesting to me about your train of thought is BP’s involvement. I’ve mooted before on their big presence in T&T. Their CEO, Bernard Looney, is an Irishman. I can’t help but think with their significant operational presence in T&T, ownership in Atlantic LNG and public proclamations on the energy transition, that they wouldn’t be interested in picking up the EOR unit and the Irish FSRU project in one deal.
Hi GRH,
I am seeking education on this point... as far as I can see right now, any gas produced in Morocco currently has no means of liquefaction, to ready it for transport in an LNG Carrier and then regasification through an FSRU. What is your view on that in relation to the comment on nominated gas sales? Think I might be missing something obvious and important about how that could work...
Nico
Excellent...thanks
surely, you are not suggesting the tie up with Massy might be bigger than some think!
There is also ...dare I suggest...
nothing to stop PRD doing a deal with Moroccan Government when the GME pipeline fully reverts ...
in OCT THIS YEAR...
to sell nominated gas to our partner in floating LNG units...
to provide the energy security that Ireland needs
Could that also involve Massy?
And no...that was not my idea!
ATB
All important phrase MEM, 'stable areas of the world'. We're operating in the 3rd richest country pp gdp in the western hemisphere, the best country to do business with in Africa and Eire is our closest neighbour, so close we can live in each others countries as if our own.
I'm in RBW and the government of Burundi has just cancelled our export license for no good reason.. high risk nation, potential rich rewards, not for the nervous, we all know the score...
PRD is pretty unique, 3 very low risk nations, definite rich rewards....
Good afternoon Nico and everyone else.
First of all a big thank you for all your kind and compassionate comments, the poor mother has buried her child today, the last few days has been a constant wailing and crying from my next door Neighbour - I have 3 young children and feel that poor ladies anguish. So thank you for your thoughts, we squander our time on this planet, we argue about niff nuff and trivia, when all we need to do is politely listen to our fellow man or woman, accept someone might have a differing position to yours, and move on.
Moving on to PRD, I like Nicodemus63 idea, for me, it adds a solid backup plan to all the other plans, in fact I think the multi billion LNG plan(s) have real legs, Ireland, Germany etc need Gas, from a politically secure source. If it is Gas from a re-entered Ram’s Head or from T&T, there will be Billions of profit, divided between the JV Partners.
Given the 3 very different parts to our business, in 3 stable area’s of the world, 6 possible initial targets in Morocco (less than 1% of our License area) lots more possibilities over our License.
Currently cherry picking new Partners in T&T re CCS EOR
Finally Ireland, where with our sleeping partner, we own 50% each in 2 Licenses, one field we know has gas from an old discovery (Marathon)
How we maximize Ireland’s potential, re-enter Ram’s Head, or supply LNG, from a new source, who knows what the final plan might be, but if you add up all the possibilities, I count 10+
All for a M/Cap currently of £37m
We must be very close to news.
Take very good care of your loved ones.
MEM
Reckon T & T is where we'll be getting our non fracked LNG from to sell on to Europe, hopefully Ireland. Why reinvent the wheel, their export market has shifted from the US to Europe. All the administrative and physical infrastructure is already in place, "oven ready'.
We get our hands on.the gas and export infrastructure at peppercorn prices in return for helping the country reduce its CO2 emissions to acceptable levels. We have the FRSU set up as existing licences have to be honoured by the Irish so if they don't want to buy our gas, we sell elsewhere. If the Germans don't want Russian gas, they can buy ours instead or freeze and suffer power cuts. That will shaft Frankfurt as the wannabe EU financial centre. Just as hopefully the Irish data centre dream will suffer a rude lesson in the wonders of being pragmatic.
National = methanol. Apologies for my phones predictive text function!
Good article CJM. Been watching this aspect for a while.
Although some of the ammonia plants idling reduces available CO2, there is still more than enough to capacity for more projects. If trinity inniss had full EOR development (12 injection units and up to 42 production wells - for more detail see the 2018 presentation) it would use 25% of the ammonia plants CO2 output ( presumably based on 2018/17 output, which I accept may have reduced). There's also still the national plants and other industries CO2 emissions to go after. Also, I suspect the gas contracts price will eventually be renegotiated, hence keeping an eye on developments.