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IJWT,
Your comparison overlooks a number of very significant factors. You would do well to review some of ROB’s project economic comparisons for Offshore vs Onshore. Vastly different development costs and risk profiles…
A find offshore Suriname is about as far removed as you can get from what PRD are sitting on - a close to market discovery in a country with benign political environment and favorable fiscal regime.
Nigel, never really engage, have nothing in ECO (nor intend to), but I worked on the major offshore projects in Guyana for a number of years - there is more chance of you producing evidence of your citizen arrest exploits than Maduro moving into Guyana successfully…
Aren’t Ireland at the end of a pipe incapable of controlling this fracked gas coming in?
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/europe/lng-europe/543310/uk-imports-lng-gas-us-north-sea/#:~:text=However%20LNG%20imports%20reached%20an,to%2017%25%20in%202021).
Interesting to see Adnoc looking at a potential purchase of Wintershall DEA for a price at around $11 Billion. I’ve not had the time to do the sums on how this prices Wintershall’s considerable asset base, but interesting to see the deep pockets and Adnoc in acquisition mode.
Interesting to note the following current drilling activity occurring offshore Morocco right now…
“Morocco: Eni - Tarfaya Shallow 1 - Tarfaya Offshore Shallow - Drilling ahead in frontier Tarfaya Basin NFW
Drilling operations are ongoing in Eni's Tarfaya Shallow 1 NFW, in the frontier Tarfaya Offshore Shallow exploration permit. The well spudded early September 2023, with operations anticipated to conclude early November, and targets an Early Jurassic clastics play that is prognosed to be oil bearing. Operations are being carried out by the “Topaz Driller” jack-up (US$125K dayrate). The prospect lies on trend with the string of Morocco Offshore (MO) wells drilled by Esso in late 1960s-70s, most of which encountered only hydrocarbon shows. However, the deepwater MO 2 well (58 km SW) flowed 2,377 bo/d of 10-12° API oil from the Upper Jurassic. Cairn Energy attempted to re-drill this non-commercial discovery in 2014 with its unsuccessful Juby Maritime 1 NFW. Also in 2014, Galp drilled the dry Tarfaya Offshore 1 NFW, which lies just 30 km inboard of the Eni probe and was targeting mid-Jurassic carbonates. Equity in the Tarfaya Offshore Shallow permit is split: Eni (45% + Operator), QatarEnergy (30%) and ONHYM (25%, carried).”
Geological parallels?
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0928893706800433
Hi Knowles, just for info, I don’t believe there would be any bespoke piping/valves or pumps that need to be manufactured or are on a long lead. I believe CNG would be addressed with Early Production Facility style rental equipment already skidded up. If anything more custom, all the piping components for this application should be available on stock…
Just my read but I believe the 1million for T&T is priced into this raise…
Feel like a bit of a mug for picking up some more in last 10 mins of trading today. Having been holding for some 3 years now the thing that stops me trading the obvious patterns is that I don’t have a vast holding and I know as soon as sell out at one of the highs, ‘THE’ RNS will drop…
Unless I am mistaken, in which case I apologise for an incorrect observation, today is the first day in my memory that GRH has not posted on LSE or (anything on) Twitter. First up hope he is okay, secondly possibly a sign of big news arriving soon..?
Bit of info announced in press today that may be of interest to some in trying to determine market value of PRD assets once CPR is updated etc.
Shell has agreed to sell its 35% sole partner participating interest in the Abadi gas project to Petronas and Pertamina for a consideration of $650million (deal structured in two parts, half cash up front/half when FID is taken on the project). Abadi gas field is located 150K offshore Indonesia, with around 10TCF recoverable reserves, planned by operator Inpex to be exploited as an onshore LNG project.
So, 35% of 10TCF valued at $650million actual sale price - long way offshore, massive CAPEX to make the LNG plan work.
It’s not hard to read across to what 75% of decent volumes of gas at Guercif is going to worth to a larger player. Low Capex, easy route to market, benign political operating environment…
Nounours,
The SLB oilfield glossary is useful because it is searchable, and also has the benefit of covering a lot of drilling and well terminology in addition to Geology. Good luck…
https://glossary.slb.com/en/search
Caterham entirely agree. To add a practical example for those not familiar with the industry:
Exxonmobil and Hess have a contractual obligation to relinquish 20% of the Stabroek license to the Guyanese government either just gone or very soon. Like PRD they negotiated a one year extension due to COVID. Exxon/Hess have discovered 11 billion BOE in Stabroek to date and just received an environmental approval to push ahead with 35 wells. The JV partners are clear on what they want to hand back. Just a working example of a massive success alongside a contractual obligation to relinquish…
PoC, 2 reasons why one might not say they’ve reached TD:
1) You’ve said that next announcement would come after wireline logs.
2) The market wants positive news mentioning gas. Statement on TD doesn’t do that, and you’re playing roulette with the SP at that point…
Surely the interim drilling update supersedes the statement made in the spud RNS about a TD announcement. Imagine how the market would react to a matter of fact TD RNS... PG and Team will want to release news that minimises ambiguity after the wireline logs are run as per last RNS. I’m going with Keith’s timeline, or maybe even Wednesday 28th
Zebra, agree PRD plan is well constructed and Hoegh have top level capability, but it remains a JV/consortium scenario and if I am mulling over the risks as an Irish civil servant then that is an additional one. As for David vs Goliath - NFE - turnkey solution executed in group with ability to finance if requested, 2022 revenue circa 2billion. PRD - JV proposal, 2022 revenue… I disagree with your comment on litigation etc as there is no current tender, just two independent sets of plans that either party remains at liberty to modify. Evidently as a holder I hope that the PRD FSRU solution comes off, but for Ireland I am more excited and optimistic about the value generation from the field licenses.
Nico,
Sure we’ve locked horns on it before. I agree FSRU best concept selection based on all your points and more. Question I have is why Irish government would not at least offer NFE the opportunity to propose a competing FSRU solution to ensure best value out of the concept. For those guys it is in-group, proven track record, financial stability tickbox. Not a deramp, just facts that have always left me concerned about the ability of another party to swoop in in Ireland and in best case add a competing unit to one sanctioned by PRD, worst case just take on PRD’s proposed scope of work (given they don’t own kinsale pipeline etc). You’ve sometimes referenced ‘David vs Goliath’ appeal and anti-capitalism, but I remain unconvinced that is enough to drive single source.
MEM I think you’ll find that plenty of people on here have criticised GRH, somewhat unfairly from my view.
Think about the modern day and what now constitutes a great hydrocarbon province (gas) - Leviathan, Rovuma basin. 15-25 TCF range. You’ve taken an extreme stance on your interpretation of something quite open ended.
I had a flight this morning which took off before 7am and landed a couple of hours into trading. Rather a surprise to see the share price on landing. I have been re-reading the RNS all day. Like many, I can find reasons to retain cautious optimism, but the following PG quote really bothers me:
“ Whilst this is not the result we wanted the pre-drill objectives and potential resources remain unchanged.”
Why is the word ‘result’ used? It could just be very clumsy but I don’t know why you would choose to describe something that is still in progress in your own mind as a ‘result’.