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I'm looking forward to next week. If history dictates the future we'll know no more but hey we've been there before. How are the underground mines going? How much third party concentrate have the 'Hubs' been processing? Is all well at the Pioneer floatation plant? What have the cost savings been in relation to the depressed oil price? Have we hedged again? How's IRC? Who really owns the 2022 Bonds? When will dividend's be paid? Who owns Agestinia, the 25% interest holder of Temi? Stay on target all long termers, now is the interesting bit whereby the multipliers from the 2015 Rights Issue will really start to kick in.
As you correctly mentioned. Loyal new and potential shareholders will have to see what they have to say, in terms of communication, numbers and committed transparency and trust of information they are willing to convey. More will be found next week earnings. Time will tell.
Hi Istabraq and of the ones you have mentioned, how many do you think will be answered. Investor relations did give me an idea of who owned bonds about a year ago. And I posted it on here. Enjoy the long weekend guys and dolls.
Hi RB1. I remember you posting it and as much as I was grateful it didn't exactly pin point too much. It is was it is and you extracted as much as possible and we'll never find out the true detail. My money is on P&P having a healthy wedge, along with some of the old shrewdies, dare I say Renova et al. POG has been a mystery for over 5 years now. We know Peter Hambro reads these forums - he said it himself on a teleweb once - and I'm of the opinion he (they, along with Pavel) have created such a monstrosity and potentially lucrative position with POG that they should fully deserve to reap the rewards. Just make sure the loyal shareholders don't get left behind.
Hi Istabraq, Yes the web of pog. Peter lost all his shares gambling on the share price. Pavel supposedly had boatloads of shares went to the Russian Government, so mention of selling then all of a sudden he doesn't seem to own any. Then we had the charade with puts and call options.
The fact they were "supposedly underwriting the rights issue" what did the beatles sing, oh yes, With a little help from our friends'. Pavel comes back,then gets ousted, then gets his friends together and gets back. The joys of POG. And thats just part of the saga. We then had the episode with Temi. We had the situation with large holdings changing hands between different banks, and then a later notification saying Peter no longer has "any influence " with I believe, Somebody Pacific. Then Pavel goes out and buys I believe 17m shares, Peter goes to rescue IRC, Ha Ha, and what happens if we get rid of that does Peter come back here. And then the convertible bonds. And the fact they held us to ransom, if you believe the 2ps. But underwriting the issue with their friends should give them very large holdings but, where are they. ??? The saga of POG. But with skin in the game, They also have the willingness to make it happen. I have talked about shenanigans for years. There could be good reasons for all of the above, its just a pity they can not be more open with shareholders, instead of going for underhand dealings. I still think this share has a lot of legs yet, and I think, if they get it right, no reason they can not get into the FTSE 100. Time will tell.
Rusty,
There's always dirt in business. And risk. Get a well run business above board and transparent with honest management and then let me know. All I care about is the share price. Sorry to be so direct, but everything comes down to a return on investment. Or I suppose you can buy a much better company than with great corporate governance like Marks and Spencer or pretty much any retail share that has been destroyed recently.
It seems to me, that many on here are just jaded with POG with the decline in share holder value in the last 10 years. Why you held these shares during that time is beyond me. But now is not the time to sell up (which is why I don't understand retiredbankers negativity). Now is the time to buy more imo.
I think a token divi is on the cards soon.
I also don't think management are fraudulent. Just a bit of what all businesses get up to.
Looking forward to results as the turnaround accelerates...
Jeeez.... Well this s Russia we are all invested within, enough said.
Diving soon PVX?... How soon? I reckon 2022 at the very least.
Investors as you yourself call yourself tend to have 'faith' in the management of the invested company Hehehe.... History proves otherwise, POG has a long way to go in order to win over investor confidence.
As it sands. .. POG is a short term trade unless you want to see your wealth erode before your eyes after a he update in the next couple of months!
Investor confidence is linked to cash generation. Pog generating lots of cash now. You'll find investor confidence will return as quickly as it went.
As to investing in Russia, poly are doing OK. You can't generalise to that extent.
All I care about is how much money POG are making and at what rate and for how long. The answer so far is: a lot, at 100% a year and at least for the next 2 years.
At 800 million it's woefully undervalued. Revenue this year will be 1.2 billion and ebitda of 500 million and still growing at 50%.
I don't give a monkey's about management if they can keep those metrics. Got to be worth 4 billion even with the debt.
And if gold does go to $2000 then POG will be making as much in profit as its market cap and still growing at 50%. x1 earnings and a peg of 0.02..... And that is absolutely nuts...
PVX233 - you mistake my relative indifference to POG as negativity. If POG were the only UK listed gold miner I could invest in then sure I would rate it more highly than most other companies in most other sectors at the current time, even after the good run over the past two quarters. However there are plenty of other miners out there with, in my opinion, better valuations. HUM for instance has about 1/5th POG production but 1/8th the market cap and next to no debt .... and it doesn't have 1bn shares converting at under half the current price into equity.
Gold sector is undoubtedly a great place to be right now ... but POG isn't the star choice.
... and with a knowledge of the history of POG it is worth being a little jaded on the management team who have over forecast next year's production in 8 out of last 10 yrs. I'd love to see 50% annual growth but I don't share your belief. I'll wait to first see whether 2020 is nearer to 620k oz or 720k oz before re-evaluating growth potential.
I would invite any holders of POG to also research HUM & SHG as potentially better value right now.
Retired Banker, I don't normally, but this time, I am going to disagree. And its totally to do with the POX hub. Pop have got one HUM AND SHG don't. As the meerkats would say " SIMPLES"
PVX233 Perhaps you should be the accountant. I hope your predictions are correct, but past performance, although not necessarily a guide to the future, so say stock markets, has never quite been the way it should have.
When people were suggesting they could either repay convertible bondholders, not only did they not repay 1 penny, they borrowed extra.
The big difference is the POX hub is now fully working, that "SHOULD" make a big difference, but, the proof will be in the pudding. As I have alluded to previously if they were cash rich, they would just buy TEMI with cash. The question I would ask you is. Why didn't they do that then ?
You normally don't answer, so I will hazard a guess, they didn't have the full cash. So if they didn't have the full amount of cash, they will have no chance of repaying all the bonds on maturity. Not that that should be a major hurdle, as if we stay at the same levels, or as I think we should do, grow the share price, I can only see one outcome with the bondholders for the convertibles, that is for them to convert.
That will give extra shareholders, and cause dilution to existing shareholders, but, it will get rid of that part of the debt.
At that time, market capitalisation should be higher and if we redeem "some" of the larger bond and renegotiate another issue at a lower coupon rate that would not be a bad thing as a lot of companies carry debt.
That should lead to a further re-rating of POG in a positive was which should lead to an even higher share price. It is going to be interesting to hear about third party concentrate and how much we have processed, but, I fear we will not know how much we are making from the processing of this stuff.
Big question, "If" Small word, but massive meaning. some wild class it as pie in the sky.
I was going to make a joke about "if" but it might be offensive to some.
Rusty
You're perfectly entitled to disagree ... and the POX Hub does seem to be a huge plus for us.
But in addition to the questions you raise about just how much cash POG are generating I would remind everybody that it was June last year when Pavel decided that he not only couldn't take the risk on some of the convertible bondholders wanting their money back in Feb 2020, but that he needed to shore up POG finances with another $25m issuance. Those don't seem to me to be the actions of somebody looking at the culmination of a 10yr investment project coming to fruition within 6mths which would be a 'game changer' for the company.
Which is exactly what I have posted on numerous occasions. I would love to be pleasantly surprised but some of the forecasts on here defy belief, in my humble opinion.