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Goldman Sachs loading up again there not daft!!
Should break the 120 barrier on this news.
Remember ARCM bought the debt at 60-70 p in the pound and last trade on the bonds was 104.55, so they won’t actually be losing money ( just losing profit) unless share price gets nearer 200, they own some phys shares as well and will no doubt participate in the placing (not my area, but can they bid up the placing shares to cover the short or are they distributed proportionally to the debt holders?) and RI , but overall still have a massive chunk to cover. With Zama news and Charlie 1 imminent , I really don’t understand why the ‘smaller’ players are still short? Especially with OPEC compliant and trade deal cancelling out the extra US production. Let’s see how long the cease fire holds in Libya and Iran tensions somewhat muted.
Yes, but if those bonds are pushed out to 2023, ie become longer dated, shorely they fall. Or am I miss reading this.
thats 340 million bond debt @ 34p gain = £ 115.6 M gain
Versus
140 Million short @ current loss (119 - 69 av) 50p = £70 M
sorry - wrong amount - was 390 right ?
thats 390 million bond debt @ 34p gain = £ 132.6 M gain
Versus
140 Million short @ current loss (119 - 69 av) 50p = £70 M
Not sure where you get the 69p average from as i think it is higher so the loss, as it stands, netted off against the bond profit still means they gain overall (that's why it's a hedge fund I guess!!). They would have had quite high costs associated with borrowing the stock too, but still unlikely to lose - unfortunately.
However, the higher the SP goes, the more the shorts will eat in to that remaining profit ... as and when they close, it could also propel the SP further north as a short that size can't go unnoticed when attempting to buy the stock back. Will they wait until after the placing and RI in the hope that the SP will retrace on the 'dilution' or attempt to close out prior??? Have they gambled too much already on this one or will they stay firm ... with the associated risk? How many have they closed already (if any)?
Plus generous coupon payments on the debt, plus warrants etc so share price has to rally quite hard to put them out of the money...... but then again nobody has had to cover a short back as big as this in a ftse 250 company which has a decent institutional base and no doubt little free float . Would be interesting to see the latest top 10 holdings updated from Elizabeth or Natalie
The bonds are bid over par because the new terms are pretty generous so no doubt many will want to own or rollover current position, the 2023 will then be at par when they are issued
My 69 p is calculated on spreadsheet - every sp for all the dealings listed by ARCM on the FCA spreadsheet.
I used the Closing pirce each day - could use the VWAP I suppose - but its around 69p for the sake of argument.
I created a spreadsheet too (see my first post?), but didn't do the quantity borrowed multiplied by the SP, etc., at that time. I'll take your word in that case as I'm not going back to it now!!! (...still think it's higher however lol)
Cheers.
JW61 appreciate the calculations I was told by someone in the know they think 74P is the average price of shorts. Anyway another positive today!! :)
Hi Grippa
Agreed. I just did the calc based on the days SP just to see where they are.
it could very well be higher - but not by much.
What we do know is every penny costs them 1.4M :-)
Was just saying for your info mate!! Indeed it is costing the slimy twats 1.4 Million per penny rise!! Hope they go tits up on other investments to the morals are non existent!!
What’s to stop ARCM keeping the short open ?
Yes Grippa I know - appreciated.
I guess the original owners or brokers, calling it in would stop em
In don't think there is boerbull BUT there paying a fee for it!!! How much I have no idea!!
I guess it’s within the terms of the shorts which we are not party too ?
yes
But I belive the lender has the right to call the margin at anytime
jw61, just out of interest, did you do a full line calculation (i.e. % increase to work out the shares shorted for each notification) and then sum up, or just an average of all the notification SP lines? As the number of shares in issue has increased quite a lot, it makes a full line calculation that much harder.
Nigoil I smell a nice Asian cooking tonight!!
I did each line calculation as notified on eac date - summend up , and worked out the average. But I only used a daily share base of 830 M - too much effort to go back and get the actual shares in issue for the warrant conversions.
Cheers and exactly; my conclusion too !! I only took data from 16/8/2018 admittedly, but I only have a 11 lines (of 86) below 70p, so I am struggling with your 69p average. It may be the data that you have prior, but I only took from started increasing again as they had previously closed out to about 2 or 3% at one time I believe.
Looking back
The first ARCM short (0.53%) on 24th Feb 2017 - was the same day PMO issued an RNS about share price weakness !
Just for info., my original data:
Date Short % Price Paid (theory)
05-Jul-19 16.85 73.7
04-Jul-19 16.76 73.8
03-Jul-19 16.64 74.9
01-Jul-19 16.42 82.0
28-Jun-19 16.53 76.9
27-Jun-19 16.41 79.0
26-Jun-19 16.29 78.2
25-Jun-19 16.16 74.6
24-Jun-19 16.03 74.5
21-Jun-19 15.90 76.5
20-Jun-19 15.78 77.3
19-Jun-19 15.65 73.1
18-Jun-19 15.52 73.5
17-Jun-19 15.17 69.6
14-Jun-19 14.83 70.4
13-Jun-19 14.49 72.5
12-Jun-19 14.29 70.0
11-Jun-19 14.08 75.0
10-Jun-19 13.82 74.5
07-Jun-19 13.68 75.5
06-Jun-19 13.50 73.5
05-Jun-19 13.32 73.4
04-Jun-19 12.97 78.0
03-Jun-19 12.75 77.8
31-May-19 12.49 78.1
30-May-19 12.23 84.6
29-May-19 12.18 83.1
28-May-19 11.98 86.6
23-May-19 11.82 82.0
21-May-19 11.70 98.0
20-May-19 11.65 97.0
17-May-19 11.58 99.4
16-May-19 11.48 98.3
15-May-19 11.30 90.4
13-May-19 11.20 86.4
09-May-19 11.10 85.7
08-May-19 11.02 91.0
07-May-19 10.95 88.7
02-May-19 10.82 91.4
30-Apr-19 10.70 99.8
29-Apr-19 10.62 98.2
26-Apr-19 10.48 98.2
13-Mar-19 10.34 82.9
24-Dec-18 10.40 58.0
21-Dec-18 10.37 57.1
20-Dec-18 10.20 56.8
19-Dec-18 10.06 62.4
18-Dec-18 9.88 61.3
17-Dec-18 9.76 65.0
14-Dec-18 9.52 67.6
13-Dec-18 9.34 70.7
11-Dec-18 9.21 72.8
07-Dec-18 9.04 75.9
06-Dec-18 8.75 66.1
05-Dec-18 8.50 74.6
29-Nov-18 8.48 70.1
28-Nov-18 8.54 68.5
27-Nov-18 8.29 70.3
26-Nov-18 7.96 72.1
23-Nov-18 7.70 64.8
22-Nov-18 7.40 72.8
21-Nov-18 7.26 77.8
20-Nov-18 6.99 76.6
19-Nov-18 6.68 80.8
16-Nov-18 6.38 81.8
15-Nov-18 6.06 85.3
14-Nov-18 5.76 93.7
13-Nov-18 5.46 95.2
12-Nov-18 5.27 100.0
08-Nov-18 4.67 105.7
05-Nov-18 4.57 107.0
02-Nov-18 4.42 107.2
01-Nov-18 4.23 103.9
31-Oct-18 4.19 107.8
30-Oct-18 4.07 102.3
26-Oct-18 3.90 103.0
25-Oct-18 3.72 106.2
24-Oct-18 3.58 105.5
23-Oct-18 3.45 107.5
22-Oct-18 3.29 114.0
19-Oct-18 3.16 121.0
07-Sep-18 3.06 114.3
06-Sep-18 2.98 117.7
05-Sep-18 3.10 119.7
29-Aug-18 3.00 116.8
16-Aug-18 2.90 113.7
I did 150 lines (ooh misses)
Some interesting days include
the 19 January 2019 - they bought back 14M shares @ 90.75 p
The highest price gained was - 121p on 19Th October 2019
The lowest price gained was 45p on 23 June 2017
The highest buy back was 12 July 129.6p
Indeed there is a chuck of buy backs between 29th May 2018 ans 1 August - averages 16m shares @ 118p