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I briefly reviewed their financials and do like the fact that they have little to no debt and a generous stockpile of cash. I believe the SP going south was purely based on forward guidance or the lack of and the uncertainty on the dividend payment, but nevertheless even if the cut the dividend by half, investors would still get 3% to 4% yield, so patience could get rewarded while you wait for the share to recover. After reviewing the financials, I've bought in a big chunk. GLA DYOR
Not so happy days! I'm wrestling with the dilemma of whether or not to buy more, I still have doubts regarding the laundry machines. There is one a few miles from me and it's not exactly working flat out! Still, this board has livened up!!!
Ran out of bandwidth or whatever, so second half of that post that contains "the real meat" to foillow shortlky. Off for a cuppa first though.
Haven't posted on here since last summer. So I've done well in restricting myself to cutting back severely on posting of late. Can see from the few posts since this morning's Profit Warning RNS that there's no clear direction in the posts, nor the severity of what lies ahead for the next 12 months in respect of decisions taken only after due consideration to the research on the history of what happens TO ALMOST EVERY SHARE AFTER IT ISSUES A PROFIT WARNING. So if you bought in way above the current SP in front of you this morning (I'm down 4 figures but I have a plan, not a cunning plan Baldrick, but a plan nonetheless) - and are worrying about the reaction to take on receiving today's RNS - then this post is just for you. None of what follows is personal opinion - it's all culled from the papers of academic research and noted successful guru's research - and they all, chillingly, report similar results. To keep this short will just jump to conclusions. But first from some comments below: 1) No single trade "triggered" today's fall - and MM's are NOT playing games with the SP. The price fell due to market reaction after a profit warning was issued - that's all, no funny trades, no games by MM's. 2) The dividend uncertainty isn't responsible for the retrace. It may be an additional factor (and if so would in time consitute a future dreaded "second profit warning" with all the consequences that entails - but it's not the main, nor sole reason. It's the revelation that profits will not be as previously advised, and therefore next year's profit are downgraded to being no better than the previous year just ended (and those are due to be reported on July 10th) and that's mainly due to a failure to achieve success in Japan (pretty sure I posted last year that one of the Japanese newspapers were reporting that Fuji had a stranglehold on the passport photo market over there). The RNS blames it on the market over there being "highly competitive". 3) Buying this morning because it's cheap. Well if you intend being a long term holder I have full confidence you won't regret it - but short term you may yet wish you'd delayed buying as better opportunities may present themselves soon. Or you could have got lucky - but the SP will not go back to the 150's of last night - feggedit! - In fact not even early next year, but for almost certain from summer 2019 onwards the SP should commence it's recovery back towards those 150's and further - see next post In essense, anyone who thinks this is just a blip, or a storm in a teacup will be sorely dissapointed for the remaindrer of this year. I actually question whether anyone on this paticular forum has ever suffered holding a share that's issued a profit warning - because raw experience alone would inform you - that's not what happens next. Right, don't think I've missed out offending anyone (if you posted and have been ommitted from being offended speak up :) O
Could anyone tell me what last dividend was pl pl ?
Strangely the large trade at 8.28 which triggered the downfall was reversed at 9.07 so cancelled its self out . MM playing games i think. gla
I think the II didn't like the hint of dividend uncertainty and thus maybe offloading?
Bought in today @118 after being out of this share, for a few years and regretting it. today's price is a good buying opportunity for an investment in a company that offers growth and a good dividend.
Got in cheap this morning , rns storm in a tea cup if you read it. Gla
My goodness, I;ve just tapped in 25 posts, and it goes back to May 2017. I suppose thats good on the basis of a nice steady income share. No mining or oil LOL For a bit of interest, I'm going to try and calculate laundry revenues per machine, per week, per year. Purely because I'm not sure that they are as good as the company suggest. I suspect that this is why we are still below �2. Still one of my best income shares tho.....Love PHTM
For me, Photo-Me interim sees moderate improvement in revenue and profits. But receivables growth and a reduction in provisions of £1.4m have played a role. I am concern about operating cash flow falling to £39.9m from £45m, a drop likely to affect full-year cash flow and raised the price to Operating cash flow multiple further (currently stands at 13 times). Management is pursuing a progressive dividend policy with a 20% increase. So, are we seeing a peak in Photo-Me Valuation level? Click to read more http://bit.ly/2yfpfn8
PHTM Photo-Me trying to breakout before update next week. Last results were very solid. Trades on a forward P/E to 2019 of 17.9.😀😎 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DQdODNIU8AEVlKD.jpg
Huge buying volume today....will stick my neck out.......T/O !!!!
The weak sterling should boost this share.
Feeling less than enamoured with this year’s SP performance to date? How about a glorious, full page (arrived in my inbox yesterday) full-on, right in your face, no holds barred, rousing, rah-rah review of PHTM by Shares Magazine (online only these days) with a dirty big BUY rating sitting over their review headline? It’s subscription only (although I get it free as a client of one of my brokers) so daren’t post it in full due to copyright but will post the opening salvo para and just the sub headings to give you a flavour: ----------------------------- PHOTO-ME’S BRIGHT EARNINGS PICTURE Weakness at photobooths-to-printing kiosks play Photo-Me International (PHTM) is a buying opportunity. The £600.5m cap offers a good hedge against Brexit-related uncertainties as it generates 90% of profits outside of the UK. Consensus estimates could prove conservative given positive progress underway with numerous growth initiatives. Broker FinnCap’s 215p price target also implies 33.5% upside from current levels….. ------------------------------ The sub headings continue with write-ups to each (but you can work out their self explanatory conclusion by the buoyant positveness of them): ENJOYS A GLOBAL FOOTPRINT SHOWING RIVALS A CLEAN PAIR OF HEELS VERITABLE CASH MACHINE
A review analysis by Phil Oakley of Sharepad fame, dated 30th June (so published today): He starts off by scratching his head in wonderment, and asks - good profits, good performance so why doesn't the market like it? Then he questions if it's cash, derides the company issuing no breakdown of sales instead it lumps them together by region only. He Phoo-hoos the photo booths and the printing side but loves the laundry business as the future driver. He finishes by being ambivalent, not bad mouthing PHTM nor endorsing it, but says it's growing forward dividend (2018) could be a reason enough for some to invest. https://download.sharescope.co.uk/doc/2017_06_30.pdf
Read that somewhere in the Japan Time. I don't know how much their Japan business is contributing to their Asian operation, which BTW accounts for 20% of group sales. Here's the article on Japan ID: http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/01/04/national/year-new-system-japans-number-id-cards-not-catching/#.WVYYLIQrKUk
Hi Orangetree, a good synopsis and a decent article. Question for us now is a rapidly expanding laundry unit enough. Figures off top of my head but is even if they double revenue will only increase 10m. Whilst the laundry is an ice side line. Do we really need the Japan ID cards back in full swing? That had a dramatic effect on expectations and share price .
With the share price, close to record highs (though down quite a bit today), here are my thoughts: - 1. Photo-Me decision to expand was the right one because revenue has gone down for years. Now it has a laundry unit that is growing fast. 2. The decision to increase dividends payout was wrong because Photo-Me is expanding and should be deploying cash towards that objective. That £32m payout was equivalent to 5% market cap. and contributed to a £25m in cash outflow. But, expect that was a one-off event!! 3. The laundry unit is looking to balance their photo booth unit as sales grow by 80% to £21m. They want to operate 6,000 units by 2020. Currently, it has 3,251 units. 4. With higher future capital expense, expect Photo-Me to start borrowing more money or reduce dividends to realise these objectives. 5. Other tell-tale signs of increasing borrowings are the fall in working capital from £53m to £37m, a five-year low. 6. Expect higher depreciation charges in the future, similar to £30m-£35m. It is currently at £22.4m. For the detailed analysis and charts, click http://bit.ly/2ueBheN
Solid set of results with a strong plan and vision how to grow revenue and returns. Happy with the progress here
HL showed a Friday close of 171, when i checked everywhere else it looks like 177. it's unusual for this share to jump 10p+ in a day. Has the market woken up to PHTM? Perhaps its going to get the rating it deserves.
Okay, so the market's saying it will re-rate PHTM but don't expect an all at once rocket-like re-rate. The small lift is well within the bounds of normalcy and after seeing a candlestick Hammer by close on Thursday - a reversal signal when occurring at the bottom of a down trend - in this case the one that commenced approx 25th late May, it confirmed by doing just that on Friday and reversed the mini downtrend by closing up a couple of pence on the day with a bullish confirmation. More to come next week INMO. Would be delighted to see it close on Monday positively on or proud of 175p but happy to accept it breaking the lower 173p resistance pivot point level and close on that still indicating further rerating to come.
Hi Wizard and oldbadger. I expected more of a lift on news like that. At 9.30 the price had gone down!! Germany has'nt been mentioned before, i'm quite sure on that. On my laundry fixation, I actually rang them yesterday to ask how many there were in the uk, to be told "about 20, with lots in Ireland". I think this may tie in with todays announcement that says something along the lines of 100 Available for the uk. i assume a roll-out of units is going on. This is a frustrating share, excellent news and damp sqib market reaction.
its time of the year again, election next week and the sp could go up or down, someone knows something otherwise they will not be large sells trades
Look at that group of large negotiated sell trades. Something going on !!!!!!! D.