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114.40p +4.60p Finally, the move up has happened, most likely there was a large buyer and needed to be filled Intraday chart http://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=L%5EPHTM&width=575&height=330&p=0&t=1&cb=
3 Summary and conclusion Clearly the group has been battling the challenges in Japan for some time but had hoped for other positives to offset these problems - presumably a strong performance or material win elsewhere in the group. From Wednesday�s announcement, clearly management felt that it was no longer likely that such positives could realistically offset the Japanese difficulties, which is why the update was timed as it was. Although it if frustrating to see the difficulties in this one market, we would highlight that the rest of the business is performing relatively well, and the group is benefiting to a degree from the diverse natures of its markets, geographies and consumer segments. The Japanese situation (a major planned compulsory scheme, followed by its curtailment and abandonment, yet still leaving new aggressive competitors) is unlikely to be replicated in other markets or segments. We would hope that the group can return to profit growth through a combination of simply delivering on the cost reductions already in train, and working to ensure the attractiveness and cost efficiencies of new products in a steadily-expanding range of markets.
The BOD achieved the right mindset from the RNS to lower dividend expectations and save some cash. I'm personally more than happy to get the 2017 maintained divi of 7.03p.
2 Laundry Laundry continues to be a key growth driver with revenue for FY2018E expected to increase by 49% to �32.3m. Manufacturing capacity of the Revolution laundry machines increased following the relocation of production facilities to a new factory in Poland. This capacity increase will enable an acceleration of the roll-out programme in the longer term. In May 2018, the Group acquired La Wash Group, a laundry services group. The acquisition cost was �4.75m, 1.3x FY2017 revenue. During that year the business had PBT of �0.8m. This acquisition shows Photo-Me�s commitment to identifying valuable strategic bolt-on laundry acquisitions to facilitate further growth. Kiosks Photo-Me Retail in the UK was re-organised to boost the profitability of the UK digital printing business. This resulted in a one-off re-structuring cost of �2.6m which is included in PBT. Japanese Photo ID Following the introduction of the My Number ID card programme in Japan the market in Photo ID has become increasingly competitive. However, this programme has not become compulsory and the market has not grown as much as had been anticipated. Existing operators and new entrants have deployed more machines hoping to take advantage of the programme. Total photo booths in Japan, across all operators, has increased from 16,000 to 27,000. Photo-Me does not have a monopoly in this market and its market share has fallen from 33% to 30%. This reduction in market share has decreased revenue per machine by 12%. In addition,there has been upward pressure on commissions payable which have risen between 2.5% and 3%. The resultant reduction in trading profits compared to our previous forecast will have a negative impact on PBT of �5m for FY2019E. To address these pressures, the Group intends to restructure the Japanese business, primarily the head office. The savings made will be in the region of �2m-�2.5m per annum. The total cost of restructuring in FY2019 will amount to c.�4m. Negotiations with unions are ongoing but the Group is confident that progress will be made and that following this restructuring the Japanese Photo ID business will return to profitability. The Japanese photo ID business accounts for all of our downgrade to FY2019E forecasts..... next 3
1 PHTM - Progressive Equity Research -Analyst Denese Newton 01/06/2018 Trading Update Revenues for FY2018E are expected to grow at approximately 6% on a constant currency basis, which is in-line with our expectations. PBT is also expected to be in-line with our forecast of �50.2m for FY2018E. This includes restructuring cost associated with the UK Retail business of �2.6m, a gain on disposal of the head office of �2.4m and a gain on investments of �3.7m. The Photo ID business, except for Japan, continues to perform in line with previous expectations. In Japan there have been difficulties due to oversupply in the market, meaning declining market share and a resultant reduction in average revenue per machine as well as upward pressure on commissions payable. The Board intends to re-structure the Japanese business to facilitate a return to profitability. For FY2019E we are lowering our forecast trading PBT for Japan by �5m and anticipate a restructuring cost of �4m. The Laundry business continues its expansion and remains a key growth driver. Revenue from Laundry operations in FY2018E grew 49% to �32.3m. Following relocation to Poland, an increase in manufacturing capacity will fuel an acceleration in the deployment of machines. Post year-end the Group acquired La Wash Group, a leading Spanish laundry provider, for �4.75m. La Wash Group had turnover of �3.7m for the year ended 31 December 2017 and corresponding PBT of �0.8m. This acquisition highlights the Group�s commitment to making complimentary bolt-on Laundry acquisitions. Photo-Me Retail in the UK has been successfully restructured to provide unattended digital printing kiosk services. This will boost the profitability of the UK digital printing business with an associated re-structuring cost of �2.6m in FY2018E. Although the Board has made no final decision, it expects to maintain the Group�s current dividend policy Trading Update Except for the Japanese Photo ID business (see below), all areas performed in line with our expectations. Turnover for FY2018E is expected to grow by 6% on a constant currency basis or 7% on an absolute basis. PBT for FY2018E is expected to be broadly in line with market expectations. We forecast PBT for FY2018E of �50.2m. Photo Identification Excluding Japan, the photo identification business continued to perform well. The UK roll-out of encrypted passport photo ID upload began in December 2017. By the year end, 2200 photobooths had been converted to provide direct and secure transmission if ID photos and data to HMPO. The Group is therefore well positioned to take advantage of the introduction of new UK passports. This technology continues to be deployed in France and Ireland and the Group is also in discussions with the Dutch government about its introduction in the Netherlands............next 2
A dead cat bounce or genuine recovery? Will be interesting see if nakedtrader blogs about either presciently selling just before the fall or buying more 'cos the fall was overdone...
Be patient this will go to 120 p soon. Everything is positive even if no increase in dividend still 6.4 p per share.co has 23 ml cash , no debit and 44 ml of profit. Is there any other co with this profile on Lse ? Mm wants cheap share .imho
Selected on the "UPS" this morning.... ....."Looks ready to bounce after the sharp fall a couple days ago, there is volume today and rising the right conditions for the bounce." Less than 2 hours trading an almost the same VOLUME as yesterday Chart with volume http://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=L%5EPHTM&width=700&height=260&p=2&t=1&dm=2&vol=1&cb=
Another positive point is to have the CEO on your side with his 22.47
Agreeing with a lot of what JohnnyD is saying here. I held this quite a while ago so know a little bit about this stock. PHTM still on track to make 44m this year. Mkt cap 414m, meaning a PE of under 10. Also in then announcement a statement saying div policy to remain in line this year. Once you factor in rapid laundry growth on next years numbers this may look quite cheap. I think it will ounce up from here. Institutional investors won’t run away on the back of this IMO
The dividend is not under threat - let’s get this in proportion -however the progressive dividend policy ie 20% more than last year is under question The SP has wobbled before when the Daily Mail questioned the viability of photo booths when you can take a selfie with your phone It recovered and it will do again. Laundry continues to be successful and photobooths have gained a new lease of life. Profits might be flat but PHTM is still highly cash generative with substantial cash and no debt
Agree,i haven't been mugged.PHTM has been a great source of income and treat them as additional pension. Yesterdays news may have been released to suppress the already generous dividend policy?.
BUYING OPPORTUNITY YES This will bounce perhaps not tomorrow but it will bounce because its dirt cheap.All the doom merchants you make me laugh. Easy money...........
Well stage one is over - the end of the first day of a Profit warning. The so-called smart money started getting out today. If you're still holding (like myself) then like it or not you are now either by default, or chance, going to be (or already are) that lesser spotted creature - the long terrm holder! I say started getting out, and not got out (got out would be us the private investors) - the institutions can't do that in one fell swoop, their holdings sold in entirety in one slab would result in the mm's offering them 10p! - So they'll take months to sell up, capitalising on every little rise, a step each time; hence the next full year I'm expecting no respite - just peaks and troughs down here in the devils dungeon. So it's wise to prepare for what appears recovery only for it to to slip back; become rangebound in sideways moves for extended preiods. If you've held this since BEFORE autumn 2014 then you're likely still in profit or lost all 4 years progress but still have your original stake money intact, but if you've only held it for 4 years (nearly 3 in my case) then you are most certainly under water.(High frequency trading excluded). So, on to stage 2 Who will, over the next full year, find their nerves shattered beyond endurance and sell-up, if additional events conspire to pile on the presurre? I'm not ruling myself out of that happening. You have to know your own emotion quota in the storm of holding a Profit Warning share. I've cracked before and fled - losing thousands; hence my posts below on what is the proceedure during a profit warning. The first chance to get out with minimum damage was today; but if you don't need the money elsewhere and are a true long term investor - it should all come good, but only starting into the second year on from today - it's this first year where all the tears will occur. Incidentally - if anyone reading this takes the decision to sell I'd appreciate a post on this forum advising of that decision - for my records to build a picture of how we private investors each react in such circumstances - as it is no different to a feeling of being mugged. I promise to post if I give up the ghost and sell-up. There's no guarantee this share will recover - I'm just quoting from past researchers (and of course the man himself Warren Buffet who would laugh at this 'little inconvenience') but first you have to be sure in your mind that PHTM is a company with a great future. I don't have an answer to that - it's for each to decide. Lots of strength in the balance sheet as others have pointed out - but also there are negatives in the balance sheet too. As holders naturally wanting the best, investors tend to favour positive analysis posts, but it's far better to have the full picture with the warts an' all, then the positive analysis posts will taste all the sweeter. Might try some small buys and small short selling spreadbets - was occupied this morning as the 120's were on show a good shorting o
Bought early and sold in 4 tranches all were correctly shown.
I would never trust the buys and sells data. Often wrong. Sums up the market.
3.6m sold and 5.3m bought specks volumes for the mm. Gla
Great balance sheet. Bid possible at these prices.
The co has no debit. Has 23 ml cash in hand .46 ml of profit forecast . One japan business under pressure which is looked into.divident on way .i don’t call it profit warning but mm taking cheap share ? Imho
As that's ANOTHER approx 30% drop from here, where the SP is, as it stands in early afternoon (must take the day's close to be accurate though), I'd say the market would really have it in for PHTM, dotlink. At this juncture I'm expecting (guessing) absolutely no worse, at most, than 100 etc., if that. Perhaps somewhere between 100 and tonight's close will be the long term bottom? - But with the July results just around the corner, and a fuller explanation of everything and what guidance for the future is in there - will be the final decider. Just estimates and guesswork until July 10th - and the reaction the market gives upon seeing it.
Quick add: The full year results are out on July 10th. That's more important than other years because and I'll quote: It's by George Bulkley and Renata Herrerias researchers at University of Exeter in a 2002 study - "They looked at two kinds of profit warnings, those that include a new earnings forecast, and those that offer only information that earnings will be be below current expectations. Not surprsingly what they found was that the fall in the stock price against the market was substantially more when the company doid not gove an indication of whjat earnings would be (-24.7%) compared to when they did give a new earnings forecast (-20.7) Well that report at least gets closer to my fav of an all-purpose 22% decline.
hold on to your hats, support at 80p
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-d-buy-hold-shares-090543074.html
1 year RSI showing as just 14 5 year RSI 18 If dividend policy continues 8.4p = 7.4% yield at current SP
Right, better keep it short as will get cut off in me prime again. After a Profit warning is issued I usually expect the first day to fall by circa 22% on average - on the first day. But been reading one of the researcher's notes and they say the first day usually falls by 16% less than that of the whole market. (Can't find the one that says it's a 22% fall generally - but let's check out the decline by close tonight). Secondly - there is no recovery for at least a full year and in fact, apart from one or two false dead cat bounces things get worse - but not as deeply worse as the first day/ or following week's retrace. Also, usually there was a 25% fall in the SP in the 12 months BEFORE the day of the Profit warning release. Only single figures in PHTM's case but from early Jan of this year to last night it's within spitting distance of that 25% preceeding fall. (Insider trading?) One report says to expect some "slight" recovery in the days that follow - but I call that the dead cat bounces. Okay - now the good news - they ALL report the same on this issue - research shows that PHTM should (on average; bare in mind there are wide variances but this is the "average") should COMMENCE it's recovery from JULY 2019. So, if you are a long terrm holder then judging what you think is a big discount to the SP might be a good course of action - if held for the long term and you regard what's to come as "market noise." There is no short term recovery. Forget months and think a year of nothing much then the second year as climb back. And most say that the second year often (often not always) shows the share BEATING the market by 22% - that's not 22% addeed to whatever the market does but 22% higher than what the market does. So if the general market rises by 10% then 22% betterment means the SP rises 12.2% approx - geddit? Don't go adding a straight 22% on top of the market rise. They all say this though - on the first day of the profit warning you should without hesitation sell. No delay, no messing about - just sell. Here's the thing. I'm cash rich in that I've allowed more cash to build up in my portfoilios than I'm comfortable with (mainly because this is the longest bull market in history , or is it the second longest in history?) and one worries about the next general crash and I wanted something set aside to buy at the bottom.) S0ooo, I was thinking I don't need the cash for other investments so don't want to crystalise a four figure loss and will siyt it out for 12 months reeling in the divis as compensation. On the other hand if one of the dead cat bounces takes the SP back up considerably hiogher than it is rigfht now then I might cut my losses and buy back in 12 months time? I'm going with the first option and watching if the second option presents itself - but in my experence a lacklustre SP momemtum awaits all holders for the rest of this year. Each to their own , but that's how I see it be