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Started: bots, 16 Jun 2024 14:31
Last post: bots, 16 Jun 2024 14:31
From Linkedin feed:-
"The Plant Health Care Spain team held its usual summer lunch today, after the meeting held to learn about the excellent sales results of the first half of the year and to prepare for the second half of the year with great optimism after overcoming various challenges since the beginning of 2024. Growth prospects for the PRO+PRE formula, ProAct®aa + PREzym™ are great, given that it has been shown that with appropriate doses, they significantly increase the profitability and resistance of crops."
Started: 1pencil, 15 Jun 2024 14:17
Last post: 1pencil, 15 Jun 2024 14:17
Bit of a shift around, top five holders now have 52%
According to my records Griffiths last notified the market in December with a holding of 5.54%, this appears to have dropped to 3.2% without further notifications.
Ospraie AG Science 17.00%
Scobie Ward 13.10%
Janus Henderson 9.76%
Newlands 6.00%
Michael Hennigan 5.57%
Above taken from PHC investor page, updated end of May.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PHC/holdings-in-company-fllwl4d257o54ib.html
Started: 1pencil, 14 Jun 2024 15:01
Last post: 1pencil, 14 Jun 2024 15:01
Some big US markets opening up for PHC subject to approval, looks like 2025 for Teikko (links added to keep everything in one place)
https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2024/06/14/take-hg-type-test-avoid-varieties
https://news.agropages.com/News/NewsDetail---48751.htm
https://www.planthealthcare.com/new-technology
Started: Brightstone, 9 Jun 2024 21:00
Last post: 1pencil, 10 Jun 2024 19:43
Buyer still active, 500k on the buy side.
Justin Waite tips a load of turkeys such as Destiny Pharma, Brandshield and XP Factory. If he tipped PHC I’d be worried.
No Idea if a fundraise is needed before B/E. Company have pledged to explore none- dilutive options if it is necessary.
PHC analysis.
https://youtu.be/CdxhH1aHSfU
Unanimous opinion was that they need cash soon and will raise.
We have seen some very discounted raises lately. 4p?
Started: 1pencil, 6 Jun 2024 20:19
Last post: 1pencil, 8 Jun 2024 09:37
There's brief update below with regard to ongoing trials. Not sure if this includes Innocul8 although trial is aimed at late blight and mancozeb.
NEW SOLUTIONS TO OLD PROBLEMS
June 5th, 2024
The immediate focus is the challenge of managing wireworm, potato cyst nematodes (PCN) and aphid-borne virus and the threats to metribuzin, mancozeb and fosthiazate, but it has a programme of activity that will carry it through to the next decade if it can retain the support needed to deliver it, Nick said.
The partnership has shared the findings from trials investigating better control of late blight, aphid-borne viruses and PCN with British Potato Review.
https://www.britishpotato.co.uk/news/new-solutions-to-old-problems/
Market prices
If we take a look at the target market for potatoes we can see prices close to all time highs, this is repeated across Europe where Plant healthcare currently have active registrations in many of the largest producing member countries.
RPI: Ave Price - Potatoes, old white, per kg
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/vkyy/mm23
UK potato prices at record highs
https://www.mintecglobal.com/mintec-customer-blog/uk-potato-prices-at-record-highs
LIMITED AVAILABILITY BOOSTS POTATO PRICES SKY HIGH
BY POTATO BUSINESS 5TH JUNE 2024
https://www.potatobusiness.com/market/limited-availability-boosts-potato-prices-sky-high/
Last post: 1pencil, 8 Jun 2024 09:02
Urea (nitrogen) is a base fertiliser, not really a direct competitor to biostimulants which would be used with in conjunction with other fertilisers.
PHC's products are more targeted to do a specific job (see potato fungicide below) rather than a general fertiliser.
Europe’s Fertilizer Producers Sound Alarm Over Big Imports From Russia
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-06-07/global-food-roundup-european-fertilizer-makers-fret-over-imports-from-russia
Started: 1pencil, 6 Jun 2024 11:35
Last post: 1pencil, 6 Jun 2024 11:35
Update on Agrii trials
Mancozeb: As one door prepares to close…
https://www.cpm-magazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2024/02/MancozebFeb24.pdf
Nick says of the active substances considered in Agrii trials as a replacement for mancozeb against late blight, two have shown value. He advises that potassium phosphonates has shown good levels of control but is currently only available as a co-form with ametoctradin and is limited to three applications per crop.
“We’ve looked at two potassium phosphonates-containing products over several seasons. Only one has delivered the high-level protection expected and isn’t currently authorised for use, but we’re prepared to submit an application for emergency authorisation if other avenues fail,” he says.
Health promoting products
The other product to have shown promise is Innocul8, a foliar fertiliser containing PREtec technology –– a form of peptides derived from naturally occurring proteins that elicits a response against crop threats. Nick explains that trial data supports its place in a programme, but as a plant health promoter, it can’t be considered as a replacement for mancozeb.
“Biological crop protection products and better nutrition will have a greater role to play in helping to reduce the damage caused by disease, but while these may serve to reduce the amount of fungicides required, they’re not a replacement. Innocul8 is one example of how these products can be useful but they have to be seen as part of a wider IPM strategy which considers variety choice and better plant health,” he says.
Started: 1pencil, 6 Jun 2024 11:27
Last post: 1pencil, 6 Jun 2024 11:27
Split into three parts - Background - Agrii trials - Market prices
The following relates to some of the changes happening with conventional fungicides being withdrawn, one in particular is quite interesting and could have strong potential for the biostimulants industry.
Its worth pointing out that although Plant Healthcare has a replacement it is only a partial, i.e. cannot be considered a direct substitute rather in conjunction with, that said due to the current widespread use of Mancozeb even as a co-product it could represent meaningful revenue.
Background
Agrii (Plant health care partner) have been aware of the impending withdrawal of Mancozeb for sometime with trials starting several years ago to find suitable alternatives.
05.11.21
Potato specialist discusses the crop health and yield benefits of using a bio-stimulant containing the protein, Harpin αβ.
https://www.agrii.co.uk/news-and-media/news/trust-the-science-with-bio-stimulants/
These trials have now evolved into a more tailored approach aimed at the forthcoming discontinuation of Mancozeb.
Mancozeb withdrawal timeline confirmed
13 May 2024
Following the conclusion of the World Trade Organization’s consultation process, the withdrawal timelines for mancozeb have been confirmed.
The Health and Safety Executive (HSE) has extended the expiry date for the active substance by one month to 31 May 2024 to account for delays in the WTO process.'
https://www.cpm-magazine.co.uk/news/mancozeb-withdrawal-timeline-confirmed/
Started: bots, 4 Jun 2024 15:23
Last post: bots, 4 Jun 2024 15:23
Plant Health Care has announced an expansion of their product label for Employ in California, now approved for a wider range of crops, which is expected to improve crop protection and yield for growers. The product, distributed by Wilbur-Ellis, has shown consistent efficacy in suppressing nematode egg production, a major concern for Californian agriculture. This development aligns with the company’s commitment to providing sustainable alternatives to conventional agrochemicals and marks a significant step in their growth within the high-value markets.
https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/plant-health-care-expands-product-label-in-california
Started: 1pencil, 4 Jun 2024 07:14
Last post: 1pencil, 4 Jun 2024 07:14
For this years growing season too:
Jeff Tweedy, CEO of Plant Health Care, said: ‟Wilbur-Ellis has been successfully promoting Employ since 2019 and I am pleased that following this new approval, Employ will be available to additional growers in California to support their production goals across an expanded range of new crops in this high value market.
"The expanded Employ California label supports the Company's vision to be a leading global provider of alternatives to conventional synthetic agrochemicals. We are excited to continue working with Wilbur-Ellis to bring the benefits of Employ to a wide range of growers in California for the 2024 season."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PHC/expanded-new-california-label-for-employ174-69c70wsr18xf8c0.html
PHC are partnered with six of the global ag tech companies, this must surely give them greater exposure to a next step equity position similar to say Sipcam-Oxon with Eden.
This in my view would be considered less of a dilution due to the overall benefits, that's of course if someone doesn't go the whole hog and buy the farm..
Cavendish not pulling any punches this morning, have they been reading this forum lol
'With such a profitable and proven biological agribiotech solution, we see Plant Health Care as a high-tech AIM-listed company that is at risk of being taken out before investors can enjoy the returns that are now visible after decades of development and investment.'
New research note out. Very positive.
That should be 15% up on 2023, not 2022.
Looking back, revenue for 2023 was originally forecast at $15.9m and came in at $11.2m.
How much faith can we put in the new forecast? It's jam tomorrow.
I think they will need one more raise. Perhaps 3-4p in the current market?
Even with the high growth forecast they need working capital. Almost all companies recently that say they are looking at non-dilutive funding options end up doing a discounted placing.
Very worrying that if they miss tragets slightly and grow at 25% they will need further funding. The first four months has seen good growth from restocking but is only $4.3m revenue. Annualised that is $12.9m, only 15% up on 2022 and would mean they need to raise more.
Started: bots, 31 May 2024 23:01
Last post: bots, 31 May 2024 23:01
"Plant Health Care PLC reports a 72% revenue increase in early 2024, with a notable improvement in operating loss and steady gross margin, buoyed by strong sales of its sustainable agricultural products Harpinαβ and PREtec. The company’s focus on novel biological products continues to gain traction internationally, with significant sales growth outside the US, especially in Brazil and Mexico, and new product launches poised to further drive revenue growth. Amidst a challenging environment, Plant Health Care’s strategic moves in product development and market expansion signal robust potential for stakeholders."
https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/plant-health-cares-sustainable-growth-surge
----------------------------------------
From the results
"The Directors have prepared a base case cash forecast that shows we will be able to operate within our existing facilities (including the financing secured after the year-end) for the foreseeable future of at least a year from the date of the approval of these financial statements. The Directors have modeled a variety of possible cash flow forecasts for the twelve months from the date of the approval of the financial statements.
The Group's revenue projections are based on detailed budgets built up by customer from each of the Group's operating segments, and specifically includes growth assumptions in the U.S. to reverse the decline experienced in 2023. The Group's base case shows a revenue increase of 39% in 2024 and 55% in the first half of 2025, which is an increase from the overall decline in 2023 of 5% (which was caused by the distributors managing their inventory levels in the U.S. market). The base case growth rates projected for 2024 and 2025 are comparable to the 40% and 28% overall growth rates achieved in 2022 and 2021 respectively, and the growth rates achieved in 2023 in the South America and EMEAA regions during 2023 of 29% and 41%."
Started: bladerunneruk, 31 May 2024 19:54
Last post: bladerunneruk, 31 May 2024 19:54
The “going concern “ was already known about. Instead look at the projected 55% increase for 2025, increasing demand from Mexico and Brazil, new products being launched, France about to buy stock. Fantastic RNS
Started: Brightstone, 31 May 2024 17:32
Last post: nomlungu, 31 May 2024 17:50
So much for $25/$30m turnover in 2025. Mr Market will not take kindly to the warning that more funds are likely to be needed.
Released after market close on a Friday and with a material uncertainty on going concern. Not good.
''In the reasonable and plausible downturn scenario where revenue growth is 25% or below, the Group's ability to fund its operations within current resources will be impacted and further funding will be required which is not guaranteed, this will have a direct impact on the Company's going concern and as a result a material uncertainty exists, which may cast significant doubt about the Group and Company's ability to continue as going concern and therefore they may be unable to realise their assets and discharge their liabilities in the normal course of business.''
Started: 1pencil, 30 May 2024 15:52
Last post: 1pencil, 30 May 2024 15:52
The new product is formulated with a peptide derived from Harpin protein – PDPH. It is registered to control one of the biggest threats to Brazilian soybean crops – the nematode Pratylenchus brachyurus in soybeans. According to the manufacturer, with this technology, the plant can selectively respond only to harmful microorganisms that impede its development.
https://news.agropages.com/News/NewsDetail---50312.htm
Started: Brother, 22 May 2024 19:43
Last post: JWBellamy, 23 May 2024 16:02
Wilbur-Ellis Company
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BqSG95n8ic
Started: geraldus, 19 May 2024 16:01
Last post: 1pencil, 21 May 2024 18:17
Most holders save the recent few will still be underwater, the major fund raise in March 21 for example was at 14p, the one after that for $3m or so, 9p.
'Plant Health Care plc, a leading provider of novel patent-protected biological products to global agricultural markets, today announces its intention to raise up to US$10.0 million before expenses by way of (i) a placing of new Ordinary Shares ("Placing Shares") at a fixed price of 14 pence per new Ordinary Share'
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PHC/proposed-placing-and-subscription-0l1wzzjorubyp3k.html
The overstocking issue seems to have affected different companies at varying levels with a bounce back in biostimulants being helped by a more general move towards these technologies, i.e when old stock of conventional products has gone is being replaced with more sustainable alternatives.
Chatting to a fellow investor, his interest has been the number of conventional products being withdrawn from the market this year, I'll try and post some examples later this wk.
I can’t see a strong resistance until we get into the 9P zone. Given that we’ve just started a new bull market, the upside here, if justified with fundamentals and positive news, is excellent.
Holding tight.
This is doing well and an interesting share keeping my eyes open on this
A few US listed Ag companies are breaking out of trading ranges, or close to: Corteva, FMC, Nutrien.
Commodity prices also showing strength, consumers in EU are experiencing potatoes shortages in some regions:
'On April 16th, the Mintec Benchmark price for English white potatoes hit an all-time high of £570/MT, marking a 90% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. Market sources anticipate a continued upward price trend due to tightening supply in the coming months. '
https://www.mintecglobal.com/mintec-customer-blog/uk-potato-prices-at-record-highs
Helps farmers justify investment, soil health and so on ..
Given the rise in SP today, I suspect the seller (Griffiths?) is now out. I hope so, I’d feel much happier if he and spreadex departed the register
Started: geraldus, 16 May 2024 14:36
Last post: 1pencil, 19 May 2024 14:04
Interesting developments last week, top five holders now have over 51% of the equity.
Ospraie AG Science 17.00%
Scobie Ward 13.10%
Janus Henderson - Law Debenture Corporation Plc 9.76%
Newlands 6.00%
Michael Hennigan 5.57%
Total 51.43%
I think it more likely to be Michael Hennigan who has holdings in Oberon Investments Group PLC, could become interesting though as Oberon have their own venture capital arm.
https://oberonprivateventures.com/our-portfolio/
2 were cancelled, so just 1 x 7.5m trade through and that was from yesterday so relates to Hennigan.
All positive though, and nice to see the SP upturn. Let's hope it's just the start
I agree, this could be the prelude to a bid.... but anywhere near this price is way, way too cheap.
I kinda hope I'm wrong; 2024-5 should see amazing growth from PHC taking us north of 20p IMO.
It states on the TR1 'Non-UK issuer'..
Its not the chap from Nutrien is it ..?
Started: bladerunneruk, 18 May 2024 10:41
Last post: bladerunneruk, 18 May 2024 10:41
Very interesting article from just over a year ago to help support a decision of whether to invest in Phc or not:
http://www.nae.edu/19579/19582/21020/266337/266373/Peptides-as-a-New-Class-of-Biopesticide
Interesting sudden jump back up almost to pre Nov drop level
Nice to see the SP finally starting to move. Still under half my average but small steps in the right direction
Started: 1pencil, 15 May 2024 08:19
Last post: DD77, 16 May 2024 12:57
Hopefully it’s Griffiths or Spreadex exiting
Another 2% plus this morning, remains to be seen if they are actual trades and not inter fund transfers or similar, we should have enough for TR1 notifications by now.
If it clears the overhang we could be off to the races.
5% of the shares traded today, should get a TR1 buy/sell side, my guess would be Griffiths as existing holding close to this figure.
Cobbled together from my notes, maybe the odd error but overall not too far off.
Ospraie AG Science 17.00%
Scobie Ward 13.10%
Janus Henderson 9.76%
Newlands 6.00%
Richard Griffiths 5.54%
SPREADEX 4.80%
Lombard Odier 4.55%
Boulder River 4.12%
Hargreaves Lansdown m 3.65%
Premium Fund Managers Limited 3.18%
IG 3.26%
Total 74.96%
Started: 1pencil, 13 May 2024 20:18
Last post: 1pencil, 13 May 2024 20:18
When considering valuations its easy to overlook the time element of getting products to market, good illustration of this in the graph below.
This is a hugely expensive process for anyone embarking new product launches and may not be reflected in company balance sheet, indeed Plant Healthcare is still trading below this years total revenue.
How can we get to the market in 2 years in Brazil and the USA and need 7 years for Europe?
https://news.agropages.com/News/NewsDetail---50137.htm
Started: Brother, 10 May 2024 11:27
Last post: bots, 12 May 2024 22:34
PHC Europe also have a couple of new faces. I’m growing more confident we’ll get into profit soon.
There must be a fair amount of confidence going forward if recruiting the COPLACANA relationship is welcome.
Link below to Agrii which I forgot to include in an earlier post, its from Autumn 23 but has some relevance now UK growing season has started.
Are biologicals about to deliver on their promise?
https://journal.agrii.co.uk/are-biologicals-about-to-deliver-on-their-promise/
Backs up TU this week, good connection to our main distributor COPLACANA
Antonio Carlos is a sales executive in the agro segment with extensive experience in input companies and cooperatives, having worked at COPLACANA - Orgulho do Agro Pride of Agribusiness for 7 years.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/plant-health-care-brasil_rompendoasbarreirasdaprodutividade-agro-agronegaejcio-activity-7194637340349267968-Xb4g/
Started: bots, 9 May 2024 14:32
Last post: 1pencil, 9 May 2024 15:32
If its just a case of short term cash flow caused by lumpy orders, perhaps an invoice discounting facility would be sufficient.
Taking the year end of December for example, PHC would be showing receivables in excess of $1.5m before being paid.
This was also highlighted during last years IMC presentation, when I think Jeff H remarked on a large payment outstanding expected the month, he also commented their customer profile being high profile long established businesses.
There’s a new online LinkedIn poster with the strap line ‘PHC ESG’.
I can see them issuing sustainability bonds which would be a non- dilutive way of raising cash.
Wouldn’t be a bad idea to use that LSE Green Economy mark. I’ve suggested it to CR previously.
Good day today and nice rise
Sales have clearly got off to a good start this year which I imagine has put a strain on cash, Cavendish allude to this in their morning note - it would be good to see what the receivables now stand at.
The note also mentions $1.5m being received in January, it sounds like payments from key distributors are pretty lumpy.
Management often quote on-ground sales (below quote) as a guide to overall demand, this would be sales from the distributor direct to end user (farmer, at which point they may need to re-order to replenish stocks.
My interpretation of the below is inventory build up has now cleared with on-ground sales necessitating new orders rather than to work through overstock.
I think ag companies in general have a good overview of what's happening at the farmer end due to their involvement with agronomist support.
' In the US, on-ground sales have started the year strongly, with sales of Employ® (Harpinab) through Wilbur-Ellis current ly up more than 75% against the same period in 2023; distributor inventory now appears to be rebalancing and to be well matched to on-ground sales, following a period of destocking in the second half of 2023.'
Ok, I understand your point now.
Presumably PHC sell to the distributors who then are responsible for selling to the end users. It doesn't appear to work like consignment stock. So it's difficult to work out selling trends, beyond what the company advise............which ties in with the de-stocking impact seen.
Perhaps PHC can provide greater granularity on this in their next Investor Meet
The revenue seems to be almost equal to the cash receipts. That doesn't tell us anything about how the customer is consuming the product and when they are likely to reorder