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Started: EliasJones, 20 May 2024 09:53
Last post: EliasJones, 30 May 2024 11:07
Thanks emptyend for sharing.
Very lightly-attended AGM with the only shareholders being me and the former Chairman’s brother. Full slate of Directors and advisers though.
VN licence extensions going well and “highly confident” due to recent site visits from the ministries. Should lead to an increase in 2P.
The amalgamation of the Egypt licences sounds like it won’t get finalised until mid-2025.
125 Prospect A is very exciting, with even majors who have turned it down thinking it is oil and (partly because of the multiple stacked plays of different types) think it will get drilled. Quite a long well, even relative to CNV basement, due to depth etc.
I also got the sense that some sort of corporate activity is on the horizon, judging in part from the background being preferred for the new CEO.
AGM statement on Thursday will be interesting with regards to Vietnam drilling and hopefully dividend nod at the AGM
Goes ex dividend 13 June paying 0.77p per share.
Last post: EliasJones, 17 May 2024 14:06
Will pop on many radars when we get the rig news. Oil revenue at premium to brent in Vietnam.
27/3 "advancing plans to drill the potentially transformational Block 125 in Vietnam"
It seems there are now two possible rigs under consideration. When they finalise one, we can expect an RNS.
Started: emptyend, 27 Apr 2024 11:53
Last post: emptyend, 27 Apr 2024 11:53
So….from the AR&A, these are the approx changes in major holders since last year:
Lombard Odier……sold 30mn
Yorktown……sold 20mn
Radoff…..bought 38mn
Aberforth …..bought 4.5mn
Pharos…..bought 10mn in buyback
The only other change noted was Blue Albacore sold c 300,000 (so 1% of holding)
The other longstanding holders (Continis, Maugein estate, Story etc hold the same as last year.
Guess the main Q is what will happens to Story’s 16.2mn, but there don’t seem to be any other blocks potentially in play.
Started: MB11, 17 Apr 2024 12:54
Last post: MB11, 17 Apr 2024 12:54
New Pharos broker research document out by Progressive Equity Research, reads really well, clearly strongly cash generative with some huge blue sky upside coning from the Vietnam asset.
Started: MB11, 12 Apr 2024 07:54
Last post: emptyend, 16 Apr 2024 12:12
I listened to that live and thought it was fair enough, especially the plans re 125……where I wait to see if Vinnie’s expectations are met.
I had a look at the Q&A write-up today, and imagine the company execs ripping their hair out at some of the lobotomised nonsense therein. For the avoidance of doubt, none of the questions were mine - I’ve had no contact with the company for several months.
But news on 125 should be a rerating catalyst, one a parter and firm well slot can be finalised.
Started: MB11, 10 Apr 2024 21:54
Last post: MB11, 15 Apr 2024 15:07
Going to see a cash build here now and a re-rate in due course as updates flow and pile increases.
Egypt cash USD payments resumed.
Vietnam very strong cashflow on a premium to brent crude.
Brent over $90.
This will be in the 30s H2.
Pharos now in a very good place, net cash positive, high oil price churning free cash flow. 2 development Vietnam wells in H2 and dividend coming up.
Started: emptyend, 4 Apr 2024 21:24
Last post: emptyend, 4 Apr 2024 21:24
Brent $91 tonight.....might trigger some action?
Started: emptyend, 25 Mar 2024 07:11
Last post: emptyend, 25 Mar 2024 14:44
……..and another 1% for Brad. Now 16%+.
900,000 shares traded on Friday - biggest day for 5+ weeks - and yet thr company bout only 10k.
News coming?
Started: emptyend, 3 Mar 2024 05:55
Last post: emptyend, 6 Mar 2024 01:31
They are required to notify. But have not been doing so.
Nothing the company can do about that, as they can only RNS notifications they have received.
This is not uncommon with non-UK shareholders, unfortunately.
EE. Presumably if still over the 3% threshold they need to still notify and change ? Any idea when any further news likely ? (hard work working O&G farm-outs these days !)
Not long to wait now until we get to see who has been selling her shares to Brad without notifying the market......the AR&A list comes from company inspection of the share register, and so by-passes the notification process.
.....and then it will start to get interesting....
Started: Beerbelly, 1 Feb 2024 23:27
Last post: Beerbelly, 1 Feb 2024 23:27
The IMF managing director said the lender was “very close” to concluding a loan deal with Egypt widely seen as crucial for easing a foreign currency crisis that has been suffocating the economy of the heavily indebted Arab country.
Started: anchorman, 23 Jan 2024 16:27
Last post: Tyler19, 23 Jan 2024 23:36
There are a number of catalysts which will eventually bode well for the company. These include:
• Receipt of delayed payments from the Egyptian government.
• The company has been using water injection in Egypt to enhance recovery and should increase production within a year or so, if done correctly. Any increase will have a material impact due to the low current production rate.
• The big catalyst is any drilling in block 125 in Vietnam. This is a deep water field where drilling is expensive. That’s why Pharos is looking for a major partner to share the burden as well as potentially using a well slot on third party facilities (low cost option). If the latter results in large flows it will make it easier to attract a farm in partner and should be very positive for the share price. This may happen this year, at least the agreement.
• One thing that gets overlooked here is that Pharos is listed on the main market which may be attractive to a major producer looking to sell mature assets, in line with current industry trends.
• Bradley Radoff, an American investor, has been building a large stake in the company and will likely start taking an active role soon, most likely once third party discussions on block 125 have concluded.
The shares offer good potential if you’re looking to hold for more than 2 years. The shares are good value based on the balance sheet but not necessarily production, which is likely to fall in the short term. Hope this helps and good luck!
Haven't posted for a while
Do people think this has a good chance of ever moving up or more likely to move down ?
Is it all or nothing on the wells ?
Thank you in advance
Started: Eldwick, 19 Jan 2024 10:33
Last post: Tyler19, 23 Jan 2024 22:52
I believe it's mainly payments from Egypt that are being delayed. It may persist for another year or so. Egypt is undergoing financial difficulties which are are probably being made worse by the current mid east crisis. Pharos should get paid eventually and should add another 30% or so to market cap. The big downside is that it's money that Pharos could use to explore block 125 in Vietnam which is believed to hold very large reserves and could transform the company.
When dealing with developing countries it's fairly common for payments to be delayed but do eventually get paid, sometimes through the courts. It's part and parcel of the risks within the industry.
It is the receivables, or rather the growth in them over the past year (50%+), that is most worrying. Does anyone have any insight as to how many people owe Pharos this money (Is it one customer or hundreds?). It would be useful to know how much focus the BOD are placing on this and just what pressure can be put on to recover the money. Growth in the debtors at that sort of rate cannot be sustained, particularly if Pharos is honouring its debts and Capex commitments. Is it time to reconsider how much focus is going into Egypt? Some companies are looking to pull out of Egypt because of the difficulty in getting money out (SDX Energy for one). One way or another the BOD should be taking a firmer stand.
Started: BeanCounting, 16 Jan 2024 13:17
Last post: Beza, 17 Jan 2024 22:18
Let’s look out for the new broker forecasts after they’ve had chance to digest the update. Shouldn’t be too long.
Biggest concern for me is rate of production decline - Dec corporate pres states H1 vietnam product = 5566 boepd, trading statement today states FY Vietnam production = 5127. infers a H2 production of @4700 boepd. this is dramatic and explains the disappointing guidance of 3900 - 5000 boepd. Would expect this level of decline to warrant an explanation.
On the positive, even at 3900 we are likely to make good money and the exploration opportunity is huge!
I admire your optimism Commando but I was disappointed with the update… there’s nothing happening! Nothing that’s gonna lift the price much. I hope I’m wrong with that but as I’m only a couple of pence/ share down I’m seriously considering cutting my losses. Unless the activist investor can get things moving… Fingers crossed.
Yeah, didnt blow the doors off, but if the recievables do roll in that wipes out the debt plus some, that would be a nice catalyst for the SP, plus news of a farmout deal could also generate interest.
I see this as a slow burn exploration play with decent balance sheet strength and income funding keeping things ticking over until then, not many companies have such upside potential plus production and a stable balance sheet, even if the expolarion doesnt come in that's not really in the price at the moment anyway, so shouldnt be too much lower if we bail out after it fails, as long as you wait for the dust to settle.
I'm just chucking in spare dividends as they come in for more leverage on money I didnt have to start with and see if we hit a nice surprise. Wouldnt bet the house on it of course, but far riskier stuff out there IMO.
the trading update is underwhelming on so many point:
1. production guidance for, almost 20% drop in production
2. they are still going to spend **** loads of capex in 2024, but with limited benefit for near term activity
3. egyptian receivables keep growing
Started: emptyend, 15 Jan 2024 10:18
Last post: emptyend, 15 Jan 2024 10:18
Due imminently, I think. News re Vietnam will feature - but what?
It’s like watching paint dry, only more expensive!
I think its the market waiting for the results from the initial wells at Bock 125. This is because of the very muted market response to the reserve estimates that came out. I believe that it is a case of waiting to see if the estimates are in the right range.
This coupled with the receivables risk in Egypt has put a lid on the share price.
When the buyback commenced the price was 20.2 (20/07/22). So the price has indeed moved up! However, I suspect like the rest of us you would have expected it to move up rather more. Strange one this, a lot of shares have been taken off of the market to very little benefit. Anyone have any theories as to why this is?
Any idea who is continuing to feed the market ? You would have thought just by virtue of the reduced number of shares (and market cap staying constant) that the share price would show some slight positive trajectory.
Nearly 4mn shares traded today. Highest daily volume for about 18 months.
I suspect we are approaching the end of the selling and perhaps will soon hear something on the the total scale of the upside potential in 125…..
Will be interesting to see how much was bought by the company today, out of the 4mn…..
Last post: control.madness, 5 Nov 2023 09:33
The link says everything has been reported so there was a notification. Looking in google Barbara Contini seems to be married to Henrik Stigell a financier so maybe he transferred or it was inherited.
Yes. But prompting for TR1 doesn’t always result in one being produced!
If it is correct, you assume the Co must be aware of such significant movements - and might have reached out and prompted for a TR1 disclosure.
Let me just spell it out:
The list is clearly up to date, because it reports Radoff’s stake correctly at 57mn+.
But it also shows that Barbara Contini has over 65mn shares. She wasn’t even on the major shareholders list in March - so (if this link is correct) there has been substantial and unreported shuffling of share stakes in the last six months and, one deduces, these have not been reported to the Company as required (n.b. the reporting obligation rests with the shareholder until they advise the Company).
Rather curious (though not unprecedented, in my experience elsewhere) - and has some significant implications.
Look at the holdings list.....Brad not alone.....
https://www.sharecast.com/equity/Pharos_Energy/director-deals
Last post: emptyend, 23 Oct 2023 14:03
Chevron buying Hess for $53bn, following on from Exxon/Pioneer.
Jim Cramer says stock market undervaluing oil is the driver for this.
Hi Emtpy, I guess I know that you’re right - it was more born out of frustration than anything else!
The company don’t need telling - they are buying shares at five times the rate of a few months ago.
Clearly there has been an ongoing seller of a big line of stock. Lombard? Or perhaps a Contini? At some point they will be done - and announcements re 125 can bring about a rerating ahead of drilling.
Has anybody told Pharos that due to world events their share price should be moving upwards…?
Just to add.....the total potential of Prospect A alone is roughly equal to Shell's Namibia finds to date.....so 10bn bbls or so, gross.
And there are other prospects inside the 3D area, as well as other leads still being identified by ERCE.....on which topic we may hear more soon?
125:
"The accumulative potential of the Prospect A whole structure is approximately 40bn oil in place. If you were just looking at the initial targeted area it would be approximately 14bn oil in place."
So the initial target potentially has c.4bn boe recoverable, with a c.70% chance of oil rather than gas. You can see why they call it a potential country-maker as well as a company-maker, as the whole complex covered by 3D looks to be potentially 10bn bbls recoverable or so, with more leads continuing to be worked up.
One wonders how the deal for 125 will be structured......
Very interesting to see they are wheeling out Vince on the 4th for his debut in a presentation (after 25 years)…….I conclude that they are clearly expecting some detailed questions on Vietnam activity.
I wonder if we’ll get an update on the 125 partner…..and drilling plans…..as well as an update on the inventory of prospects and the materiality of the potential upside……
Last post: SpArmada, 16 Sep 2023 23:24
Came across this in twitter today, I liked it, gives a very good overview and how the company is cheap and has plenty of potential at the same time:
https://zerogcos.substack.com/p/pharos-energy-a-far-east-turnaround
Started: emptyend, 15 Sep 2023 19:16
Last post: emptyend, 15 Sep 2023 19:16
298,000 shares in the closing auction. Almost certainly not the company and unlikely to be Radoff…….maybe someone new looking for a position (at last) before oil price breaks $100 and the 125 deal emerges?
Started: Eldwick, 20 Jul 2023 21:55
Last post: emptyend, 12 Sep 2023 11:41
Watch for an update on 125 plans tomorrow…….😏
Great article, thank you. Unless I’m quoting the same broker report twice, this is the second time that I’ve read a broker note quoting PHAR at around 38p a share…
As I noted in another thread:
“ An independent assessment by ERCE for Block 125 confirms a range of gross unrisked prospective oil resources of between 1,178 MMstb (1U) and 29,785 MMstb (3U) with a Mean value of 13,328 MMstb for the Prospects in the North West area of Block 125 currently covered fully or partially by 3D seismic. These resources do not include Leads already identified in Blocks 125 & 126 but not yet covered by 3D seismic”
Since then, this note was published …..which is worth a careful read:
https://progressive-research.com/wp-content/uploads/data-sync/research/PHAR%2020230810.pdf
My current feeling of my holding here is very sorta hmmmmmm !
I prefer to obviously have strong positive feelings going forward on any stock, or to have a fear of a tumble (but the potential for a good spurt up to still exist).
To have this feeling of treading water with no great potential to rise or fall has me a little bored to be honest. I need to give this stock some thought and would welcome any thoughts from equally frustrated investors.
Well I believe that the house broker has a price target of 55p. PHAR is also trades below NAV but has been for a while. A re-rate is required!
Tullow shares are up nearly 70% from the lows of May. Pharos shares fundamentally flat…..and yet they are in the same business, with a similar mix of exploration upside and current production.
There is no doubt the dollar payment issues in Egypt have been a drag on performance here - but that effect seems to be being worked through as conditions ease. A material rerating seems likely over the next six months as plans firm up for 125.
Brent price now back at nearly $88……up from a low of $74 over the summer.
No impact on the share price - though I do notice a slight uptick in the rate of share buybacks.
The game changer will be when we get the RNS of the farminee on 125/6. We will then get more detail on the drilling plans and, potentially, a further resource update.
Started: emptyend, 21 Dec 2022 11:57
Last post: emptyend, 20 Jul 2023 07:20
….typo….3U not 3P…..but the point holds.
BLIMEY:
“ An independent assessment by ERCE for Block 125 confirms a range of gross unrisked prospective oil resources of between 1,178 MMstb (1U) and 29,785 MMstb (3U) with a Mean value of 13,328 MMstb for the Prospects in the North West area of Block 125 currently covered fully or partially by 3D seismic. These resources do not include Leads already identified in Blocks 125 & 126 but not yet covered by 3D seismic”
Obviously OIP numbers need a big discount and risking, but those are some pretty impressive mean/3P numbers……especially as they only cover the area over which 3D has already been shot!
Also worth noting that an updated and rather interesting Corporate Presentation was slid out on 27th June. We’ll soon see what numbers can be attached to the pretty 125/6 pictures - and perhaps learn who is the drilling partner.
Last year July’s Trading and Ops update was on 20th July…..
….and we’ve been told “ In addition, an independent assessment by ERCE for Block 125 has commenced, evaluating prospect sizes with encouraging initial results. We look forward to update the market at the July Trading & Operations Update”
And only 5 weeks ago we had news of the licence extension on 125.
Not impossible that we get news tomorrow of a substantial prospective (multi-billion gross) resources update AND a farm-in agreement for drilling next year.
At the minimum, we should get a resources update by the end of next week.
Decks now cleared....
Started: NewKOTB, 12 Jun 2023 19:16
Last post: NewKOTB, 12 Jun 2023 19:16
Decent buys today ..... hummm !!!