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Q4 on their website
Ghana Petroleum Commission have published 2023s numbers (download from archive)
Jubilee Oil.
Sep 3028518, Oct 2982914, Nov 2743738, Dec 2778352
Biggest concern for me is rate of production decline - Dec corporate pres states H1 vietnam product = 5566 boepd, trading statement today states FY Vietnam production = 5127. infers a H2 production of @4700 boepd. this is dramatic and explains the disappointing guidance of 3900 - 5000 boepd. Would expect this level of decline to warrant an explanation.
On the positive, even at 3900 we are likely to make good money and the exploration opportunity is huge!
Yes, could email IR but market moves to formal notifications (good or bad) - so company diary dates are more important than individual IR comms.
looking forward to formal notification of increase in Jubilee performance in Q3
Kos results out Nov 6. not long to see jubilee numbers
Page 26, half year results
"Since 1 January 2022, there have been ongoing discussions with the Government of Kenya (GoK) on approval of the Field Development
Plan (FDP) submitted on 10 December 2021 and securing government deliverables. An updated FDP was submitted on 3 March 2023
and is being reviewed by the GoK before ratification by the Kenyan Parliament. Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA),
the regulator, has recently engaged third party consultants to review the revised FDP and extended the review period to Q1 2024.
The Group expects a production licence to be granted once Government due process has been completed"
Quote from Keith Hill, Africa Oil -
transcript of earnings call @ https://seekingalpha.com/article/4604727-africa-oil-corp-aoiff-q1-2023-earnings-call-transcript
"No. I mean we're still working hard to get a partner. We had a little setback, which are one of the two partners that we thought we were pretty close, but pulled out. But the operator Tullow is very actively engaged in replacing that. We still think it's a great project. We still think it's going to solve a lot of energy, supply problems for Kenya and East Africa. So, I think it is a challenging project. We've been here for 13 years and we still think it's a good project.
So, I can tell you Rahul Dhir is here as CEO of Tullow is very focused on getting a solution to this project to bring it to monetization. And it's really all about getting a strategic partner. Until we have a strategic partner we really can't move forward. So that's the real focus. But we are doing things in the background. We've done a lot of work on the land, water, fiscal regimes, all of those things, I think, we're making progress on, but until we get a strategic partner lined up, I'm not sure that we can move forward on."
invested not inevested (for the spelling police)
Morning all, guidance for year is included in RNS. expected debt levels are clear. Debt is not a problem here...cash is being generated..and re-inevested. look to capex guidance. 2023 is last year of planned major jubilee capex. Future years will be more cash generative
Tax is an unwelcome unknown as is Ghana macro environment.
even so Tullow is a LTH with plenty of upside - Kenya, gas contract, increased production, future debt reduction etc
Good luck all LTHs
problem is they are burning cash and all cash they have is from raise not earnings. agree it would only take one or two good contracts to boost but the wording in update is not encouraging
results are disappointingly as expected - one to put back in the cupboard and forget about for a couple of years. hopefully the management will have worked out how to turn "sales 'grind'" (their words) into something more positive by then.
That said...possibly a good entry point as we now have a product to sell that does good in the world!
If memory serves - Ed described 125 as potentially 'a company maker'
mind you he also bought Egypt!
as you say - probably worth the wait - especially with buybacks and dividends to support value in interim
Some positives mixed in with some risks
Positive: share buybacks, dividend prospects, future Vietnam development
Risks: Egypt cash, wide ranging production guidance
Quotes from Keith Hill / AO webcast
"Don't forget my good friend Kenya, I've been telling you about Kenya for 13 years. I know patients has warned them. And I think probably most of the market doesn't give us much value there. We still think it's a very good play. And we still think we've got a very reasonable chance to get a strategic partner and get this farmed out. So again, I think this is one of those believe it when you see it. But, watch the press, I think there's a good chance that we will have an announcement on our partnership before the end of the year."
"Yes, I'm not sure I can say too much more about negotiations, than I have. We have we had two interested parties. We're moving forward with one of the two interested parties. No deal, but it, we feel we're fairly close. And I think there's a -- each person can put his own percentage of chance to success on that. But, I think we have a fairly high chance to get a deal done there."
From Kos Q3 report....all looking good
At Jubilee, production averaged approximately 88,900 bopd gross during the quarter. At TEN, production averaged approximately 22,200 bopd gross for the third quarter.
At the beginning of the third quarter, the handover of the Jubilee FPSO operations and maintenance from MODEC took place. Since the transition, operating performance has continued to be strong with no reportable safety incidents and facility uptime of over 98%. In addition, several potential future cost savings have been identified, primarily through direct contracting, optimizing work scope and competitive re-tendering.
The Jubilee Southeast development continues to progress and is now over 50% complete. Drilling of the first well has commenced ahead of schedule with all three wells expected to be drilled by early 2023. Completion of the wells is planned for the first half of 2023, with initial production expected around mid-2023. The partnership expects the new wells to increase gross production in the field to approximately 100,000 bopd.
At TEN, an Enyenra producer well (EN-21) was drilled and came online around the end of the quarter and has now been choked back, awaiting pressure support from the nearby water injection well.
Post quarter-end, the partnership drilled the second of the two riser base wells (NT-11) to define the extent of the Ntomme reservoir supporting further development of the TEN fields. The well encountered approximately 5 meters of net oil pay with poorer than expected reservoir quality. The partnership will continue to evaluate the full results of the two wells to high-grade and optimize the future drilling plans for TEN, with a focus on proven accumulations and areas with existing well control.
Kosmos results Q3 - 7th November (partner Jub)
Africa Oil Q3 - 14th November (partner Kenya)
could be an interesting couple of weeks!
Hi BRB, agree - AGM announcement is not a Trading statement .......but ...... i was expecting a trading statement today - as per Tullow web - see below page (upcoming events halfway down)
https://www.tullowoil.com/investors/shareholder-centre/
"Upcoming events
AGM Trading Update
25 May 2022
Annual General Meeting
25 May 2022"
True BRB but had expected a 'Trading statement'....revenue = X, realised oil price = Y etc.
exactly as provided in Jan trading statement.
KOS (partner in Jub and Ten) Q1 2022 results to be published on 9th May
Eagernome posting history..........the more he posts the higher the price!
16/3 TLW: 45.98 Eagernome: This company and its ceo is a joke.
29/3 TLW: 51.52 Eagernome: Face it this management screwed you all over here. Nothing you can do about it.
15/4 TLW: 58.70 Eagernome: Shame on anyone supporting this worthless management. They sold you all out, cowards for supporting these clowns