Paypoint Share Chat (PAY)

Nice, all ex divi losses recovered after 1 day. Still well undervalued at 5.2 x EV/EBITDA and 73p EPS with a forward P/E of only 6.8 - 7.5.

Hopefully the Q1 on the 29/07/26 will be positive and show the underlying business is doing well, especially the Royal Mail Roll out with Collect+

With the continuing share buyback and if there are no other issues and growth continues apace, it will hopefully boost the share price. Patience will be rewarded here, especially after the Capital Markets day in September.

.wealthoracle.co.uk/company-results

PayPoint has launched the third tranche of its multi-year buyback programme, committing a further £25 million to on-market purchases running from today until no later than 31 March 2027. The move keeps the group firmly on track with its stated ambition of returning at least £30 million per annum to shareholders through to March 2028, and of shrinking the equity base by at least 20% over that window. Combined with the £5 million already deployed in the current financial year, the new tranche lifts expected FY27 buyback returns to £30 million. Progress to date has been substantive rather than symbolic: as at 30 June, £50 million had been deployed across the first two tranches, retiring 7.86 million shares and, together with the earlier consolidation, reducing the share count by 17.7%. Issued capital now stands at 59.9 million shares, with none held in treasury, meaning every share bought under the new mandate will be cancelled and drop straight through to per-share metrics. Investec is again running the programme on a non-discretionary basis, and the Takeover Panel has reconfirmed Asteriscos Patrimonial's innocent-bystander status, removing any Rule 9 overhang from a rising holding by passive drift. With the cadence of returns now well established, the read-across for investors is one of disciplined cash deployment against a shrinking float, supporting EPS accretion into FY28.

.wealthoracle.co.uk/company-results

Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PAY/paypoint-completes-acquisition-of-aperidata-strengthening-its-open-banking-capabilities-vcegjnqerznuv4s.html

Constantly strengthening the digital offering. Hopefully see a climb into H1 Results in July. Divi next week.

Are you really that obtuse? I was referring specifically to the capital reorganisation and the issue of 12 new shares for every 13 original shares plus the return of cash to shareholders, as would have been abundantly clear to any "... ordinary man on the Clapham Omnibus ...".

The share buyback program is an entirely separate issue and was instigated before the capital reorganisation. The question of whether or not the company should be borrowing to buy back shares in the Market may raise many of the same issues but it is nevertheless distinct from the capital reorganisation. Share buybacks do not constitute a capital reorganisation. For the sake of the uninitiated or the deliberately obtuse: share buybacks don't necessitate the issue of a new class of ordinary share capital to replace the existing class of ordinary share capital.

PS. None of your "... 3 major things ..." have done diddly squat for the share price, if you hadn't noticed. It's financial window dressing that was consigned to the waste basket in the 2000s. Markets are now fully cognisant with management trying to manipulate their financial metrics (which often benefit the terms of their LTIPs) and look under the bonnet instead.

PPS. Font of all wisdom, have you got your head around your "... the dividend payment is linked to EPS not debt ..." gaff yet? You've actually leant support to my contention that the DPS could/should have risen c8% (based on the capital reorganisation alone), additional financing costs aside. I argued just based on affordability but the increase in EPS does me just as well.

The fact that they haven't increased the DPS in line with the increase in EPS actually begs the different question of whether or not the company could have afforded to continue to pay a dividend at the same level without the capital reorganisation i.e. without the c8% boost to EPS would the BoD have continued to consider the dividend cover sufficient to warrant paying the same DPS.

My argument has always been premised on the basis that the cash cost of the company's previous dividend payouts was sustainable and the company never gave any indication in the accounts that this wasn't the case. However, if you follow your statement to its logical conclusion then the increase in EPS that has occurred because of the capital reorganisation and share buybacks should have given rise to more than a nominal annual increase in the DPS and the fact that it hasn't could be interpreted as suggesting that the company was over distributing before and would have been obliged to cut the DPS otherwise.

I rest my case - "better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt"

"The number of shares in issue has been reduced by about c8%"

Paypoint started the buyback on 72m Shares and have reduced the number of shares to 60.1m as per the most recent RNS which is currently a 16.53% reduction, not an 8% reduction. The buyback does 3 major things, especially in an undervalued asset. 1. Instant EPS Accretion, 2. High Return on Capital (ROI), 3. Long-Term Dividend Savings -which in turn feed back into retained cash and ability to pay debt down.

Please dont bother to reply. I wont be replying/reading your asinine posts.

You really couldn't make it up. The share price was already tanking before the trading update (it just tanked more after that) and what company chooses to proceed with a totally unnecessary capital reorganisation at a time when trading isn't going to plan. Were the BoD totally oblivious of the problems with the new InPost/Yodel contract in the months before the capital reorganisation? They shouldn't have been. Plus let's not forget about the Global 365 claim. The BoD might have considered the claim to be totally spurious but when faced with such a material liability if the claim succeeded it should have figured more prominently in the Chairman's and CEO's statements accompanying the financial statements (not stuffed away in the notes to the accounts with little or no explanation).

I would also suggest that you learn to read. The total dividend payout is by reference to the company not the individual shareholders. The number of shares in issue has been reduced by about c8%. By maintaining the previous dividend and only increasing it by a nominal annual amount (in accordance with the company's previous guidance before the capital reorganisation) the company has reduced the total dividend payout that it would have made if the share capital had not been reduced. I.e. the nominal annual increase aside, if the company was paying out, say, £100m in dividends before the reorganisation it is now paying out c£92m. It's a fairly simple concept; even you should be able to grasp it. What I'm saying is that if the company could afford to pay £100m of dividends from its annual profits before the capital reorganisation there's no reason to consider that it couldn't afford to pay £100m afterwards, additional financing costs aside, if, as the company maintained, this was surplus to business requirements. You could argue that the company has, effectively, opted to voluntarily pay its bankers rather than its shareholders; I personally don't believe that this is in the best interest of shareholders.

This type of capital reorganisation is simply an exercise in financial window dressing; they normally improve the prospective EPS, all other factors being equal, but little else. Often the only people who benefit from such schemes are the directors and their LTIPs.

Also, have to love your line "... the dividend payment is linked to EPS not debt ...". Did you really think that one up all by yourself? Think about it! You reduce the shares in issue by c8% which increases the EPS by c8%, financing costs aside. So, if you follow the logic of your statement, the DPS should surely rise by c8%. Make up your mind! LOL!

I'm all for returning surplus cash to shareholders (you don't invest in companies so that they can earn income from long-term cash deposits; individuals can generally generate higher net returns from depositing cash in their own names) but borrowing cash to return it to shareholders serves no purpose, given the inherent risks of the unknown.

As the old saying goes, better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt as you have just done.

The share price didnt tank because of the consolidation, it tanked because the market/Quants/Shorts treated the news, which arrived AFTER the consolidation, that the £100m EBITDA target that Paypoint had been forcasting would not be hit, essentially as a profit warning. You can quite clearly see that the shorts pilled in after this announcement on the 20th November (the share consolidation was on the 20th October) and it was this that caused the share price to tank, not as you suggest the share price consolidation.

But hey, dont let the truth get in the way of what actually happened and some waffle about some underperforming piece of garbage you invested in that no one else is even remotely interested in. I would also point out that the dividend payment has been maintained and if you had reinvested your 50p consolidation dividend you would have stayed neutral and your dividend payment would have been the same. Also the dividend payment is linked to EPS not debt (unless its grossly high and at 1.44xEBITDA it isnt), and the ability to pay debt back is about EBITDA and cash flow/generation. Not as you are suggesting dividend payouts LOL!

I know who "has nae clue" and it isnt me.

Stoopid by name. Says it all.

The share price has tanked since the capital reduction. That's a fact. You can postulate all you like but the Market has spoken.

Borrowing money to pay for a capital reduction is an absolute no-no. Nobody can predict what's around the corner with 100% certainty. Been there before. Got the T-shirt to prove it. One of my shares has been in the doldrums for the best part of 20 years because it borrowed money to pay for a capital reduction at the wrong time (about six months before the 2008 financial crisis). It had to stop its dividend immediately and took the best part of a decade to pay off its outstanding debt (because of the knock on economic effect of the financial crisis to its profits) and restart the dividend. Meanwhile, the share price is still in the tank because every time it takes one step forward the worldwide economic woes (COVID, Ukraine, anemic economic growth, declining GDP per capita, the Middle East etc. etc.) intervene to haul it back. It's now profitable and currently has an 8.5% dividend yield but the market is still wary. So don't call my comment "utter garbage"; you have nae clue.

As regards the dividend, PAY could have maintained its total dividend payout whilst increasing the dividend per share by c8%. Instead it's chosen to reduce its total dividend payout. I.e. it's effectively using future dividends it might otherwise have paid to help repay the debt.

All in all, it was a pointless exercise which has only served to increase the EPS and, unlike you it would appear, the Market is fully cognisant of such crude attempts at financial engineering.

I agree with both comments. It is a unique, quirky business which does make it hard to replicate but i think also means the valuation will always be limited. Cleaned up balance sheet and simplified accounts would definitely help to re-rate. If your looking for dividends then so much choice in UK market.

The capital reduction was a disaster from beginning to end coupled with the fact that they didn't increase the dividend to reflect the reduction in the number of shares in issue. I personally will be opposing the re-election of any of the board members at the next AGM and voting down the recommendations of the remuneration committee; a symbolic gesture perhaps but one that needs to be done never the less.

They've put the share price in the pits and lumbered the company with more debt to boot. Totally idiotic! If they'd been sitting on surplus cash then I might have understood but borrowing money is just plain daft and totally incompetent.

They've always had too high a debt over the years, and I believe that's the main problem stalling any real progress in the sp. Even when there's the odd surge in sp it soon falls back again. They need to bring the debt level down significantly. They actually borrowed to fund their share buyback scheme, which is frankly nuts. Why do so many companies find the need to jump on this bandwagon? In few cases is it ever warranted, and certainly not in this particular case, where the sp is still at the level it was back in early 2023.

I remember looking at Paypoint nearly 20 years back when a more simple business (just utility top up) than now and share price is where it was. While its an ok business its not a great one.

Plus points - as the incumbent its difficult for any up start to displace it.

Dislikes - large 33% stake held by IM. Rules out any bid premium. High ish debt for what should be a very cash generative business. Accounts could be a lot cleaner with lots of adjusting items. Growth is basically flat.

£50m of £90m was the Royal Mail contribution so one off. Personally they would have been better to hold cash on the balance sheet so could buy back harder on weakness and / or pay down debt.

Valuation would be higher is accounts cleaner.

Paypoint hasn't "transitioned away from the old 'corner shop/cash legacy' business" it's morphed. The independent/small chain "corner shop" is still at the core of its business model and that's not a bad thing. Xmas hampers, gift cards, parcels etc. all overlap with this business model; they're now about providing their core business customers with additional revenue streams and sharing the financial benefit therefrom.

Weirdly i was hoping for a small sell off to add....done nothing ..but will add on weakness....gla & atb

Tomorrows results data should be interesting...still hold plenty sub 500p avg...will add on weakness....

Getting close to buying back some of the 624p sale..still have plenty though sub 500p avg gl

Respect your decision to take some profits but think you are a bit premature. Record results 25/26 already hinted at by the board, interim trading update due next week 22nd where no doubt the record results due will be mentioned along with the H2 trading update.

Also the CAT Tribunal judgement is due very soon - "Frankenstein mess" - Global365s own emails call their product this. Global365s prepay software was also turned down by Scottish Power, EDF and British gas. The fact that they are claiming they could have won a massive 35% market share is ludicrous.

There is no way, on the publicly available commentary/evidence, the court will award anywhere near the amount Global 365 are claiming.

Even if PAYPOINT lose the "anti-competition" argument, the counterfactuals are so strong in Paypoint’s favour against Global365, that it will still be like a win because any compensation awarded will most probably be in the range of 0.01p - £10m, which in this case is still a win.

The current EV is only about 5.8 and Paypoint are predicting £90m+ in EBITDA (or thereabouts) for this year. So the company are still trading at a distressed share price and the valuation gap suggests that PAY should currently be valued at about 850+. But this valuation gap will not resolve until the CAT gives its judgement. Paypoints EV should be at least 7.5 but it is currently depressed due to awaiting the CAT judgement, some macro factors and the large short interest of over 4.75%.

Another reason the share price disconnect is so large is also due to the PAY share buyback. The amount of shares is now down to 60.6m and will be under 60m soon. This has a big effect on both the share price and the large short interest currently trying to exit a crowded trade.

I will hold for 850+ which I believe wont be long in coming.

Still hold..gla & atb

Well, 3 days until results, the share price is stagnant at around 550 with low volumes and currently going no where.

Lets see what the market makes of the forthcomming management guided £90m EBITDA, EPS of 70p - 80p, net debt 80m-90m and the parcels volumes +20%. The Barclays target of 420 is likely to look slightly stupid/out of touch.

Well, not much to say really, its clear that they are all Quants/Stratagy based i.e. they dont care about the results on the 11th June, they only care about the charts, liquidity and things like the trailing 12 month figures, for example the trailing 12 month EPS is like 25p or something? Some of the spreads in the morning over the last month or so have been like 6%/35p suggesting little or no liquidity and so the shorts are able to walk the price down.

This is exactly what has happened since the CAT, some exited just before the judgement and then came back, also the 2.9% currently disclosed isnt the whole story, there will be (in my opinion) between 1% and 5% hidden short positions on top in leveraged TRS (Total Return Swops), CFDs, other derivatives etc.

Even when the figures are posted on the 11th june, management have raised expectations so the figures better be good or as guided or Paypoint will be hammered. Barclays are the only Broker with the outlier of 420 which is simply ludicrous. All of the other brokers are 800 - 1150.

Paypoint are a transformed business, the market hasnt woken up to that yet. The royal mail deal and rebranding is transformational. Look it up, Paypoint are set to make net 25p per parcel, plus the new kiosks will have OBConnect software embedded in them to leverage the kiosk/card usage. The Lloyds partnership, again transformational. OBConnect will start to monetise its products. Paypoint is now a Utility/Cash/Parcels/Finetec Hybrid and should command an EV of 8 to 10. Currently PAY are trading on an EV of just 4.8xEBITDA. That is a business in decline/old cash business/going bust. Not a business thats generating over 90m EBITDA this year, a dividend yield of over 7% and target EBITDA of over 100m next year all whilst reducing the share capital from 72m shares to 60.3m currently.

But, until the market gets the concrete figures on 11th June, no one is buying. Remember, 100m EBITDA was "promised" this year. The partial collapse of the share price price in November was due to Paypoint stating that it wouldnt reach 100m EBITDA this year, essentially a profit warning or the shorts used it as such even though it wasnt really a profit warning and the price collapsed from about 700 to 440.

Stoopid,

What's your take on the 4 short positions?

Algos in control at the moment, wait for the £90m+ EBITDA to print on the RNS on the 11th June. 90m EBITDA, 60.4m shares, this is an EV of only 4.5/5xEBITDA, yield of 6.7% currently covered more then 2 times by profits, Net Debt of 80m/90m, Roll out of IDS/Royal Mail business which is set to be transformational, doubling parcel volumes by 26/27 results, OBconnect Monetisition, Lloyds collaberation, Love2shop cross selling, the positive list goes on. Plus the continued reduction in the share base, another 60k bought and cancelled in the last week.

PAY are outrageously undervalued and hopefully the Full Year Results will see a re-rating. With the EV multiple at 4.8/5x EBITDA Its trading as a legacy business that is going bust/under. You only have 4 weeks to wait. Institutions know the value, they are just waiting for it to be confirmed on the 11th June.

Disappointed at the lack of positive response to the CAT judgement. Significant threat disappears, but the sp hardly moves 🤔

Yes. A relatively small fine £169,000 + interest, which is a relief, as I was expecting a much higher fine.

On a side note, shorts are now down to just over 2% on May 4th. They were showing at 3.78% the week before. Did some of these shorters get wind of this decision before it was announced. It just seems a suspicious coincidence to me.

The results on the 11th June will be the catalyst back to 850+ when record results of 90m+ EBITDA is confirmed and they reiterate 100m EBITDA for next year. Even at 850, the ev multiple will still only be about 6.5xEBITDA, still well undervalued.

Also, foward guidance for the fully rolled out Royal Mail/Parcels contribution will be good to see. Then hopefully they can show increased monetisation from DIgital and OBconnect......

Maybe, or have they just dropped under the 0.5% reporting threshold?

A 1.26% drop in the shorts (from 4.94% to the current level)would be approx 768k shares, and there was no notable change in the share price from friday 19th April to when it was reported? I still believe that there is considerable short interest below that 0.5% threshold thats not currently visible......

Must be costing them a fortune, especially having to have paid the two divis and the carry costs etc, especially if highly leveraged?

There will be no major move over the 660 holding level until the results on 11th June or the CAT judgement lands and is either an outright win or a loss on competition issues but a negligible compensation payment due to counterfactuals like "Frankenstein Mess" and Scottish Power

Notable drop in shorts now, down to 3.68% during the last week. So some of the shorters are finally giving up at last.

Most shorts appear to have taken positions from 650 to down under 500, just after the Share consolidation at 750 and RNS about not hitting that 100m EBITDA target this year. So, totally agree with you that some of them, especially those hidden ones (under 0.5%) with TRS (Swops) and derivatives could be well under massively water especially if leveraged.... The CAT judgement could mean a very large short squeeze as they try to exit? looks like they might still be betting on that 173m being a black swan event which, with the evidence and commentary available publically, Paypoint will win....

Just had a look at the shorters position on this. They must be losing a packet on PAY as well as burdened with heavy margin calls, as many took positions when the sp was well below 500 and most are still hanging on. It's not often you see a situation like this, so wondering whether the actual shorters position has been accurately updated, as I suspect this recent surge is partly down to shorters closing their positions.

No, sorry to disappoint you, their holding has only increased by 1% due to the number of shares and the 30m buyback PAY are undertaking.

i.e. they still hold the same number of shares but that number of shares is now 33% of the company instead of 32% as paypoint have effectively reduced the number of shares from approx 72m to 60.1m by their £30m buyback scheme.

Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/PAY/holding-s-in-shares/17531224

Asteriscos Patrimonial SLU increased holding from 32.0035% to 33.107228%

Thank you for that.

And now, all we need is a positive CAT judgement........... its likely Paypoint may lose the competition arguement but, they will most definitively win the counter factual, meaning, little if no payout which is essentially a huge win for Paypoint.

Re-rating will occur quickly especially with a declared 4.75% short and 100m EBITDA next year.

FY26 Update

PayPoint Plc (“PayPoint” or the “Group”) today issues an unaudited trading update for the financial year ended 31 March 2026.

The Group anticipates it will deliver a record financial performance for FY26.

Consistent with the extended and increased buyback programme announced on 1 July 2025, as of market close on 25 March 2026, a total of 3,957,613 shares have been purchased at a total value of £23.8 million. The Group remains on course to reduce its issued share capital by circa 30% in the three years to FY28 while continuing to grow the ordinary dividend, with share capital already reduced by circa15% in the current year.

Business Reorganisation

The Board also today announces that it has taken the decision to simplify the business through a reorganisation into four business units: Network Services, Digital Payments and Open Banking, Love2shop and Merchant Services. This will result in a better integrated and more transparent business with a simpler investment case.

This reorganisation will establish four business units of scale, with clearly defined operating structures, a greater focus on growth opportunities with a more accountable operating culture...

The four business units will be:

1. Network Services (estimated FY26 net revenue: £91.3 million)

2. Digital Payments and Open Banking (estimated FY26 net revenue: £13.4 million)

3. Love2shop (estimated FY26 net revenue: £53.2 million)

4. Merchant Services (estimated FY26 net revenue: £31.5 million)

FY27 Outlook

The business reorganisation will drive significant change in the Group during FY27 and beyond. The actions we are taking to simplify and optimise the business structure will better position PayPoint to prioritise resources and focus towards areas which will deliver growth for the long term despite structural change in a number of our key markets and a slower than expected pace in the roll out of some of our key growth initiatives. The Board believes these actions are fundamental to the next steps in the development of the PayPoint business and will establish a stronger foundation for future growth.

Entering into the new financial year, in a challenging trading environment, our business reorganisation will ensure there are a number of important changes in priority and emphasis across the business. At a headline level, the focus across each of our four business units and their respective channels to market is to harness our capabilities to deliver a higher quality of earnings and greater adoption of our products and services.

In terms of trading, our outlook for the year ahead is balanced between the continued growth across the Group, further cost efficiency initiatives and recent trends in certain of our business units, in particular our parcels business. Overall, this indicates the business is likely to exceed the underlying profits delivered in FY26 and within the range of market expectations.

Still awaiting the CAT Ruling (date to be confirmed) and record results trading update details on 22/04/2026.

Share price holding around 550 with a PE of only 7.8, hopefully a short squeeze incomming?

Always good to take a profit. Personally im waiting for the full year results and the "record figures". Next years guidance will also be fun, especially with the post office comments regarding paypoint and the parcels tie up recently.

Next big catalyst is the CAT ruling. A negligible award loss of say 0m to 10m or an outright victory sees a short squeeze and PAY back at 750.....

Profit taking gla....

Well, after an initial 3% drop this morning, buying pressure has pushed PAY up by another 3.7%

Surely gotta be some short positions using the current market turbulance to close? Especially as the CAT judgement is due any week now?

Thanks Stoopid

Shorters have been busy loading up over the last few week, despite the sp rising strongly over the same period. Now over 5% of the shares (only 3.8% mid Jan). They seem very confident this is going to end badly.

Also, if you noted Blackrocks change from actually holding the shares to a partial derivative position whilst still "owning" the shares? They are well known for lending out shares and they are probably part of the chain assisting short sellers?

So, the "free float" of 42 million that you are referring to is the "technical free float" i.e. shares which the public and institutions can trade if they want. So, whats out there to buy and sell if the price is right and the holders actually want to sell. The "effective float" is whats pubically availble to buy i.e. not 42 million.

The 100k i was referencing is what is available to currently BORROW, from a borrowing pool of holders. So its not part of the "free float". The actual tradeable float is small, possibly less then 10% and over a 5 year period, Paypoint has been tightly traded with only an average daily volume over 5 years of approx 165k per day.

The CAT dispute - Utilita already settled out of courd and actually forged a new deal/partnership with Paypoint suggesting that there was no money and no real evidence in the claim/litigation. Paypoints lawyers also pointed out that Global365s own emails suggested their platform was a frankenstein mess and wasnt market ready suggesting in a rather huge way that Global365s failings were entirely of their own making and that the big utilities didnt want to use their software.

https://www.lexology.com/pro/content/cat-told-uk-claimants-product-was-frankenstein-mess-in-damages-trial#:~:text=CAT%20told%20UK%20claimant's%20product,in%2Dperson%20at%20a%20shop.

Also do you have anymore on the "The public reporting on the CAT dispute" this verses a hell of a lot of shorts now. Info would be helpful on said pending judgement

Little bit of a short squeeze yesterday and today??

With Ex divi tomorrow and PAY cancelling another 100k shares by weeks end (down to 61.7m shares) sorts are increasing as a % even though they havent increased their positions....

The trading volume definitely points to a crowded exit over the last 2 days and a mini-squeeze taking place as the shorts will be on the hook for the divi tomorrow. The combination of high relative volume and a rising share price could indicate that buyers are aggressively chasing a limited pool of available shares. Volumes yesterday and today appear to be more than 50% above normal daily volume.

With the CAT verdict due soon, the report of record profits to come, its going to get interesting quickly, one way or another. Short squeeze could see PAY back at 750 in short order, similarly, a bad CAT result could see PAY back at 400/450....

Sold £20k - there is good upside and a nice dvi but also risk of downside and the 7 shorts bothers me.

Better to wait on the sidelines...

'Stockopedia has just upgraded this'.

-------------------------------------------------

That's a worry, as so many of their recommendations end up going south. Same for IC.

Stockopedia has just upgraded this ...very large sized user base

Mike you got to understand you playing a dangerous game when you listen to other posters you don't sell at £5.75 when a broker just slapped £11 on that's my opinion

Teddy………this is a share I do quite well with. I sold a few today, to buy back. They go xdiv 26 Feb will probably rise, then drop after xdiv date. I will be trading on those parameters. Building a position and taking the house extra shares.

Hope this helps

At a fraction over 535p

It just shows how undervalued and disconected PAY had become compared to its financial metrics, peer businesses and how well they are actually doing (record profits this year?). The large buyback and share consolidation have also helped a lot, with the share base reduced by about 8m (12%?) shares in the last 12 months.

Not only has it not fallen this morning, it has actually opened higher today and now back on the rise. Still far too cheap with shorts still trying to close in a crowded trade.

The FY results and capital markets day to come will be very interesting as Paypoint showcase a growing fintech business with £100m+ EBITDA and an EPS of around 100p per share. The only remaining possible fly in the ointment is the CAT result. I dont believe it will be material, all the commentary I have read suggests either nothing or a minimal settlement (1m - 15m?) that wont be material. But, no one will know until the judgement is released.

'Gruyere, no its not just a reiteration, they have, reviewed the results, maintained their targets and made 7 points in relation to the growth story'.

Surprised and Stoopid - gentlemen, thank you I stand corrected.

And many thanks Stoop for taking the time to post the main points - as you say, looking good.

One is Panmure Gordon todays is Panmure Liberum

But surely Panmure's 1100p rating was issued two months ago.

Flippin' heck!. I think those shorters must be running for cover. I can't see that much to cheer about in the qtr 3 results, with net debt sharply up and the business pretty flat overall, although parcels and Love2Shop did well. Perhaps it's partly relief that things weren't as bad as expected, but wasn't expecting a severe business downturn myself. The CEO was a bit gushing about how great the results were, but at least the market's happy so not complaining.

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1086387/paypoint-jumps-as-it-remains-on-course-for-record-profits-1086387.html

So much for Barclays broker note of 420 price target and sell. Wonder if it was acting as a broker for any synthetic swops that the short funds may have had with them and was talking down its own book, hedging by selling PAY?.........

The dark arts of Quants and investment banks like Barclays, eh?

The results are in line with expectations, also, "In the closing quarter, we are focused on finishing strongly and delivering record profits for the year,"

The share buyback continues and it looks like by the time it finishes PAY will have cut the equity base by approx 20% to 60m shares.

Digital grew very well and overall the 100m EBITDA target looks like it will come sooner rather than later?

And boom, up 6% at open. See if it lasts. People selling the results yesterday........

The main game here is still the CAT result.....

Trading update don't seem too bad to me. Burn deramper.

Off book means exactly that. Off the order book so wont affect the book price which is what you see

The only conclusion I am drawing is that you are chatting crap and the volatility atm is just "noise".

The results whilst important are not the main event. This update will continue to suggest the business is working well, continuing growth and the road to 100p EPS is still in sight. The on going buy back and 12/13 share consolidation after the royal mail deal have reduced the number of shares significantly, this will have a big affect on accounting and EPS figures.

But, the main event will still be the CAT conclusion. Until this is settled and any quantum/liability decided, the share price will stagnate and be liable to sudden moves......

Agile..it's large sell,being dribbled out bit by bit..offbook...So not visible as an open trade..You don't sell such large amount ,one day beforehand,unless you got wind of negativity in trading update

Whist Wednesday will be important, the CAT decision will be the main mover of the share price when the result is known.

if the CAT judgement goes wrong then PAY could be on the end of a hefty bill. In fact anything major would likely require large a rights issue or bankrupt them.

Will it be 170m? Unlikely. Ofwat have never made a formal finding against Paypoint for breaching competition law and it is unlikely the CAT will now.

Utilita have already settled with Paypoint despite being part of the same litigation as Global 365 and have actually now entered into a 5 year contract with them and accepted an undisclosed sum.

Paypoint have continually stated that they will win and there is no basis for Global365s claim.

PayPoint’s defence counsel argued that Global-365 fundamentally over-estimated the market opportunity and that its product was not yet market-ready. PayPoint suggested that energy suppliers simply weren’t interested in it.

Also, Paypoints legal team pointed out that "an internal Global-365 email by a quality-assurance tester in 2021 that described the company’s own SMARTprepay software as a “complicated Frankenstein mess”

This is why I believe Utilita settled and why Global-365 didn’t;

Utilita,already had customers, already had volumes, already had a working product and could show actual lost margin

Whereas Global-365 is trying to prove a missed market entry, are depending heavily on hypothetical success in a notoriously tight and hard to enter market and as can be seen by the Paypoint defence, vulnerable to internal-document attacks.

So, £172m? On the balance of it, even if something is proven or the CAT Tribuneral find something, the damages will be minimal (say £0 - £10m) and not material in any way.

But, pay your money, take your chance. The risks are known, as is the upside of 850+

If it goes pete tong, nobody can say they were not warned or informed......