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Nice, all ex divi losses recovered after 1 day. Still well undervalued at 5.2 x EV/EBITDA and 73p EPS with a forward P/E of only 6.8 - 7.5.

Hopefully the Q1 on the 29/07/26 will be positive and show the underlying business is doing well, especially the Royal Mail Roll out with Collect+

With the continuing share buyback and if there are no other issues and growth continues apace, it will hopefully boost the share price. Patience will be rewarded here, especially after the Capital Markets day in September.

Knot, the FCA explicitly used that exact argument in its written submission to the Upper Tribunal, that the FCA are questioning Consumer Voice’s funding transparency and commercial lack of interest i.e. they couldn’t give a feck about the ordinary consumer and are protecting their 30%-40% margins and are actually acting on behalf of the CMC and not out of the interest of the consumer.

They are actively trying to throw Consumer Voice's case out of court by challenging their legal standing (locus standi) pointing out that Consumer Voice is a limited company funded by law firms— (COURMACs - who apparently have 4million claims) rather than an individual motorist who paid or received redress.

High Court Judge Nicholas Thompsell and Upper Tribunal Judge Jonathan Cannan adopted a procedural approach to the FCA’s standing argument against Consumer Voice by deferring a final ruling on legal standing until the substantive merits of the case are heard, allowing the challenge to proceed temporarily. The judges ordered specialized, "bespoke" directions to fast-track the challenges brought by major manufacturing banks while partially suspending elements of the FCA’s redress scheme.

This is the only article I could find that included the Consumer Voice bit, even the FCAs own article doesn’t mention it;

https://www.mpamag.com/uk/news/general/lenders-challenge-fca-car-finance-redress-scheme-over-property-rights/580776

https://www.fca.org.uk/news/statements/motor-finance-scheme-partially-suspended

Knot, took me a while to look through and understand it and to be fair I skim read a lot and AI some of it.

The Judge ruled that this was a totally impermissible expansion of jurisdiction i.e. Ultra Vires. He explicitly stated that “no such corrective responsibility could be derived from either Plevin (2014) or Smith v Royal Mail/RBS (2023)” and essentially blew the “Corrective Responsibility” argument from the FOS out of the water.

The High Court essentially ruled that a past completed transaction is a discrete, historical event. If six years have passed from the event—and three years have passed from when the consumer became reasonably aware of it—the FOS has zero jurisdiction to investigate it or award fair redress.

This for me impacts directly on the FCA and their scheme, especially the 2007 – 2014 part of it because by going against the FOA, they have essentially admitted that the Statute of limitations 6-year rule is all important/powerful? By confirming that the FOS cannot retrospectively override the six-year limitation rule via the "continuing omission" loophole, the High Court has essentially severed the legal rails for individual, retrospective claims outside the explicit statutory windows i.e. 6 years or 3 years from when the person should have reasonably been aware.

Therefore, although they sided against the FOS, and while the FCA can technically utilize its broad section 404 FSMA powers to mandate industry-wide redress schemes, the fact that the FCA intervened on the side of the banks in this case proves that the regulator wants strict finality and limits on historical claims. The FCA's position in court and by its statements confirms they agree that the FOS cannot create law out of thin air.

So, in my understanding, the 2014 – 2024 Portion of the claims will still go forward, but the 2007 – 2014 claims are likely to be struck down. The FCA cannot use the Section 404 consumer redress scheme to override the fundamental UK Limitation Act or its own DISP 2.8.2R rules. Because, according to the recent ruling, the un-refunded historical commission is a discrete past event—not a "continuing omission"—any consumer complaint relating to the pre-2014 book is structurally time-barred unless the consumer can prove they only discovered the commission within the last three years.

It also screws the CMCs big time as they have routinely used the FOS as a free, automated conveyor belt to lodge thousands of retrospective pre-2014 complaints. This essentially screws them and the FOS/FCA would not be able to deal with anything pre 2014 under the 6 year Limitation Rules.

So, the FCA have screwed themselves. I will never understand why they didn’t write a scheme that fell in line with the Supreme court guidelines and Statute law. I mean Hopecraft vs Close Brothers was over £185 quid commission? Its just mental.

Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PAY/paypoint-completes-acquisition-of-aperidata-strengthening-its-open-banking-capabilities-vcegjnqerznuv4s.html

Constantly strengthening the digital offering. Hopefully see a climb into H1 Results in July. Divi next week.

I rest my case - "better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt"

"The number of shares in issue has been reduced by about c8%"

Paypoint started the buyback on 72m Shares and have reduced the number of shares to 60.1m as per the most recent RNS which is currently a 16.53% reduction, not an 8% reduction. The buyback does 3 major things, especially in an undervalued asset. 1. Instant EPS Accretion, 2. High Return on Capital (ROI), 3. Long-Term Dividend Savings -which in turn feed back into retained cash and ability to pay debt down.

Please dont bother to reply. I wont be replying/reading your asinine posts.

As the old saying goes, better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt as you have just done.

The share price didnt tank because of the consolidation, it tanked because the market/Quants/Shorts treated the news, which arrived AFTER the consolidation, that the £100m EBITDA target that Paypoint had been forcasting would not be hit, essentially as a profit warning. You can quite clearly see that the shorts pilled in after this announcement on the 20th November (the share consolidation was on the 20th October) and it was this that caused the share price to tank, not as you suggest the share price consolidation.

But hey, dont let the truth get in the way of what actually happened and some waffle about some underperforming piece of garbage you invested in that no one else is even remotely interested in. I would also point out that the dividend payment has been maintained and if you had reinvested your 50p consolidation dividend you would have stayed neutral and your dividend payment would have been the same. Also the dividend payment is linked to EPS not debt (unless its grossly high and at 1.44xEBITDA it isnt), and the ability to pay debt back is about EBITDA and cash flow/generation. Not as you are suggesting dividend payouts LOL!

I know who "has nae clue" and it isnt me.

Such utter misleading rubbish posted in here, “a unique and quirky business” “The capital reduction was a disaster from beginning to end coupled with the fact that they didn't increase the dividend to reflect the reduction in the number of shares in issue.” - such utter garbage.

I don’t know what PAYPOINT have to do to please people. This is why they don’t get revalued, because people cant see the transformation and moan.

Record profits with more growth to come, active successful business transformation from legacy, share buyback programme to enhance shareholder value and improve EPS, the dividend is still yielding nearly 7% yet people moan it wasn’t “rebased” after the consolidation, total buyout of the increasingly important OB Connect that is now 100% owned.

Fought off a £173m legal claim from Global365, aiming for growth and £100m+ EBITDA, successfully transformed from a corner shop/cash business to a 30k ish retail network parcels/banking/finetec/retail business with a transformative deal with Royal Mail?

Partnerships with Lloyds, Royal Mail, government contracts, private contracts, roll out of OB Connect software in the new Royal Mail Terminals, new high margin retail banking/loans division opened. What more do they have to do?

The market appears to have missed the transformation as have others and the company is undervalued by a long way on standard metrics, this is why they are having a capital markets day. The thin liquidity daily is allowing the funds and quants to push the share price around and distort value.

EV/EBITDA is only approx. 5x, target EBITDA is over 100m, EPS will be over 80p on a share base of approx. 59m. The dividend is still excellent and true value is over 800 if you apply an EV of 7x/10x EBITDA for a Network/banking/parcels/retail/fintec hybrid with excellent reoccurring sticky revenue. (8x100m = 800m

Yes I agree the debt could be trimmed but, it’s still well within Paypoints own financial margins of 1.2 – 1.5 x EBITDA at 1.44xEBITDA and will fall organically even if they don’t pay a penny off if EBITDA increases to 100m. The extra debt has been used to do two things, buy the rest of OB Connect and also to fund the buybacks, which I think is a great use of the funds and in such a high margin/cash generative business, the debt is not a problem.

I would also like to note the buybacks have also resulted in a saving of over £4.8m a year in dividend payments (12m shares x 40p per share) so an annual saving of over £5m a year going forward. The share price will recover as soon as the market says it can. The current discount will be resolved and 800+ will return as long as Paypoint keep delivering.

570.5 live, only fly in the ointment was a large increase in net debt. Its still within management targets of 1.2/1.5xEBITDA though.

Everything going great guns, still trading at an EV of 4.8xEBITDA which is still far to low, market will have to rerate eventually. The market is lagging the business transformation, just look at the business mix. Paypointy have sucessfully transitioned away from the old "corner shop/cash" legacy business. The market will soon wake up to it and the price/EV multiple will rise...

Well, 3 days until results, the share price is stagnant at around 550 with low volumes and currently going no where.

Lets see what the market makes of the forthcomming management guided £90m EBITDA, EPS of 70p - 80p, net debt 80m-90m and the parcels volumes +20%. The Barclays target of 420 is likely to look slightly stupid/out of touch.

My Opinion only - Mid 200s? Well, look at the reason CBG crashed to low 200s/190 in the first place? It was purely because the market (and a lot of others) took the view that CBG was going to go bankrupt or have a hugely dilutive rights issue because of car finance liabilities?

This is obviously not the case now with the publication of the FCAs 26/03 and the fact that VW etc are attempting a JR and it may be that the years from 2007 to 2014 may well be hugely legally vulnerable to this challenge as noted by Knot, others and legal professionals.

CBGs Liabilities for 26/03 are currently capped at £320m (+/- £50m - £100m buffer for costs etc which can be covered by retained profits). CBG have 400m in cash, NIM of 7%+, a CET1 of 14.3% and are currently trading at a ludicrous 0.48/0.5xTNAV of approx. 870/910 meaning you are getting CBG for a 50% discount even now.

This wouldn’t be the case in the US or India for example, where it’s likely that the share price would have recovered to at least 0.8xTNAV due to better liquidity, better multiples and the FTSE suffering large structural capital outflows.

The discount that the UK market is still applying to CBG is ludicrous and will take some time to resolve, the restoration of the dividend will be one of those catalysts.

So, return to mid 200s? I would doubt it, CBG weathered the COVID crisis due to their loan book quality and resilience, I suspect they will do the same with any UK macro downturn and any generalised market crash due to enormously overpriced tech and AI stocks. In fact higher interest rates will more than likely boost profitability and margins.

I would suggest you keep an eye on your stops, I wouldn’t want to be stopped out on a macro crash and widening of spreads. Especially if your average is in the mid 200s and your stops are tight on the current share price?

So Patience, you are suggesting that you are currently sat on approx 127,500 shares at the moment? Thats a big bet on CBG. I wish you well.

Well, not much to say really, its clear that they are all Quants/Stratagy based i.e. they dont care about the results on the 11th June, they only care about the charts, liquidity and things like the trailing 12 month figures, for example the trailing 12 month EPS is like 25p or something? Some of the spreads in the morning over the last month or so have been like 6%/35p suggesting little or no liquidity and so the shorts are able to walk the price down.

This is exactly what has happened since the CAT, some exited just before the judgement and then came back, also the 2.9% currently disclosed isnt the whole story, there will be (in my opinion) between 1% and 5% hidden short positions on top in leveraged TRS (Total Return Swops), CFDs, other derivatives etc.

Even when the figures are posted on the 11th june, management have raised expectations so the figures better be good or as guided or Paypoint will be hammered. Barclays are the only Broker with the outlier of 420 which is simply ludicrous. All of the other brokers are 800 - 1150.

Paypoint are a transformed business, the market hasnt woken up to that yet. The royal mail deal and rebranding is transformational. Look it up, Paypoint are set to make net 25p per parcel, plus the new kiosks will have OBConnect software embedded in them to leverage the kiosk/card usage. The Lloyds partnership, again transformational. OBConnect will start to monetise its products. Paypoint is now a Utility/Cash/Parcels/Finetec Hybrid and should command an EV of 8 to 10. Currently PAY are trading on an EV of just 4.8xEBITDA. That is a business in decline/old cash business/going bust. Not a business thats generating over 90m EBITDA this year, a dividend yield of over 7% and target EBITDA of over 100m next year all whilst reducing the share capital from 72m shares to 60.3m currently.

But, until the market gets the concrete figures on 11th June, no one is buying. Remember, 100m EBITDA was "promised" this year. The partial collapse of the share price price in November was due to Paypoint stating that it wouldnt reach 100m EBITDA this year, essentially a profit warning or the shorts used it as such even though it wasnt really a profit warning and the price collapsed from about 700 to 440.

Surprised there hasnt been a rise in the share price into the Q3 Tomorrow? Especially with the UBS note yesterday? Down 10% since the 06th May, just coinciding with the increase in short positions funnily enough?

Algos in control at the moment, wait for the £90m+ EBITDA to print on the RNS on the 11th June. 90m EBITDA, 60.4m shares, this is an EV of only 4.5/5xEBITDA, yield of 6.7% currently covered more then 2 times by profits, Net Debt of 80m/90m, Roll out of IDS/Royal Mail business which is set to be transformational, doubling parcel volumes by 26/27 results, OBconnect Monetisition, Lloyds collaberation, Love2shop cross selling, the positive list goes on. Plus the continued reduction in the share base, another 60k bought and cancelled in the last week.

PAY are outrageously undervalued and hopefully the Full Year Results will see a re-rating. With the EV multiple at 4.8/5x EBITDA Its trading as a legacy business that is going bust/under. You only have 4 weeks to wait. Institutions know the value, they are just waiting for it to be confirmed on the 11th June.

The results on the 11th June will be the catalyst back to 850+ when record results of 90m+ EBITDA is confirmed and they reiterate 100m EBITDA for next year. Even at 850, the ev multiple will still only be about 6.5xEBITDA, still well undervalued.

Also, foward guidance for the fully rolled out Royal Mail/Parcels contribution will be good to see. Then hopefully they can show increased monetisation from DIgital and OBconnect......

Maybe, or have they just dropped under the 0.5% reporting threshold?

A 1.26% drop in the shorts (from 4.94% to the current level)would be approx 768k shares, and there was no notable change in the share price from friday 19th April to when it was reported? I still believe that there is considerable short interest below that 0.5% threshold thats not currently visible......

Must be costing them a fortune, especially having to have paid the two divis and the carry costs etc, especially if highly leveraged?

There will be no major move over the 660 holding level until the results on 11th June or the CAT judgement lands and is either an outright win or a loss on competition issues but a negligible compensation payment due to counterfactuals like "Frankenstein Mess" and Scottish Power

This isnt actually a Judicial Review via the high court is it? They’re applying to the Upper Tribunal, they’re not doing a standard High Court-style judicial review?

So, this is technically an application for a statutory review by the Upper Tribunal FSMA (Tax and Chancery Chamber) ? Not a direct JR on whether or not the scheme is legal/ultra vires?

They are saying that the calculation method is irrational or unlawful in how it measures loss and the approach to interest and harm assessment is legally flawed if i am reading this correctly?

So the scheme can continue whilst this appeal is run in tandem. They will have a hell of a job proving their argument, it would need to prove a misapplication of legal principles from Johnson v FirstRand, whether the FCA’s “hybrid” calculation properly reflects actual loss, whether compensatory interest is calculated in a legally sound way and if "excluding" certain agreements is irrational or inconsistent. So, A high bar indeed.

Most shorts appear to have taken positions from 650 to down under 500, just after the Share consolidation at 750 and RNS about not hitting that 100m EBITDA target this year. So, totally agree with you that some of them, especially those hidden ones (under 0.5%) with TRS (Swops) and derivatives could be well under massively water especially if leveraged.... The CAT judgement could mean a very large short squeeze as they try to exit? looks like they might still be betting on that 173m being a black swan event which, with the evidence and commentary available publically, Paypoint will win....

Respect your decision to take some profits but think you are a bit premature. Record results 25/26 already hinted at by the board, interim trading update due next week 22nd where no doubt the record results due will be mentioned along with the H2 trading update.

Also the CAT Tribunal judgement is due very soon - "Frankenstein mess" - Global365s own emails call their product this. Global365s prepay software was also turned down by Scottish Power, EDF and British gas. The fact that they are claiming they could have won a massive 35% market share is ludicrous.

There is no way, on the publicly available commentary/evidence, the court will award anywhere near the amount Global 365 are claiming.

Even if PAYPOINT lose the "anti-competition" argument, the counterfactuals are so strong in Paypoint’s favour against Global365, that it will still be like a win because any compensation awarded will most probably be in the range of 0.01p - £10m, which in this case is still a win.

The current EV is only about 5.8 and Paypoint are predicting £90m+ in EBITDA (or thereabouts) for this year. So the company are still trading at a distressed share price and the valuation gap suggests that PAY should currently be valued at about 850+. But this valuation gap will not resolve until the CAT gives its judgement. Paypoints EV should be at least 7.5 but it is currently depressed due to awaiting the CAT judgement, some macro factors and the large short interest of over 4.75%.

Another reason the share price disconnect is so large is also due to the PAY share buyback. The amount of shares is now down to 60.6m and will be under 60m soon. This has a big effect on both the share price and the large short interest currently trying to exit a crowded trade.

I will hold for 850+ which I believe wont be long in coming.