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Gratz, well done. But im still holding, mid year results soon which will hopefully provide a catalyst for further share price rises hopefully back to over 600.
With the Divi still paying 6.6% and well covered by cash flows, a possible bid in the wings (but i wont hold my breath) and the company growing revenue in all divisions i would like to see PAY get back to 800+
All banks are struggling SP wise in the current climate. Investors are worried the intrest rate rises havent fed through the system fully yet and that borrowing defaults will increase as next year goes on. CBG have already reported a small increase in defaults/provision in their recent results. So, as long as there are no more nasties/provisions for Novitas then I wont worry.
The only issue was that even with the £100m ish provisions for Novitas stripped out, profit for the year still fell about 13%
Its not well covered atm but if they drop it again, the SP will collapse upsetting major investors. So, my guess is that they will keep it as is until revenues from the price hikes, job cuts and synergies from sales and mergers start to come through (Three is the big one next year). So, its probably safe, for a while at least.
I think a lot of people dont understand what may occur here. POG are essentially insolvent, they are about to default on another debt as of yesterday. Under UK company law, it is a criminal offence to trade whilst insolvant.
There are plenty of examples of companies trading right up until last knockings before closing the doors and screwing shareholders - Woolworths, Debenhams, Carillion etc.
POG may well be forced to sell the company assets to cover debts, i.e. the mining operations etc. These assets will then be transferred out of POG and into the ownership of the purchasing company. The price could be a fire sale price well under market value. POG will then become a cash shell with no assets, holding all the debt including the bonds. As the bond holders are first in the food chain, they will get paid out first then the banks, leaving whats left for shareholders.
This essentially means that shareholders will be left with nothing as there will be zero cash left after all the debt has been paid and directors saleries continue to get paid whilst the company is wound down as a cash shell.
Im not saying that this will happen, but its a likely outcome if they cant refinance debt. The shares may even be suspended soon due to them being technically insolvent?
I have no skin in the game here, was tempted but thought it too risky. I genuinely hope it turns out well for shareholders and POG manage to sort something out. But, the RNS is warning shareholders of the risk of insolvency and a fire sale of the company assets. If POG survives the share price will likely recover somewhat so good luck if you decide to hold in such a nightmare time for shareholders.
79 - 79.25 live with 1.216 million shares sold to 40k bought.............. something smells but price holding as yet, wonder if a big buy order is being filled or is there some other news us Pis aint yet aware of out there? "Sigh" if there is we, as Pis, are always the last to know, but the way the price is moving, the shares on Loan and the numbers sold recently i.e. today make me wonder, this isnt moving like a share that has seen far better than expected results and with a better financial position than thought. Big contract loss maybe? Or further bad news that wasnt put out previously due to various reasons? Personally, with the results released by xch I would have expected bargin hunters to pick these up (as we did) and the SP pushed back up to the £1 mark in short order (as that is where it fell from). The fact that the SP has not pushed on upwards and not significantly recovered along with the large apparently "short" position and volumes sold make me pause for thought.....
Another spike in shares on loan (short interest?) to 30 Million with another 400k sold off today, think I will wait stay out and see what transpires here............
Yes, but what surprises me is the number out on loan, 10% of the entire share capital........... Agreed about the unwinding, but depends how many used on top of normal selling pressure and trading, There has been no where near that many shares traded recently. Im still cautious and will wait and see if i get a better buy in price again as its back up to 79p and i missed 75p..............
http://www.dataexplorers.com/products/data By the way, thats 25 times the shares that were out on loan normally i.e. approx 1 million.........
Well, something deffo smells now, XCH shares out on loan approx 25 million?? thats approx 10% of the total number of shares?? Its not always the case but that many shares out on loan "could" mean that someone is shorting XCH............ The two recent contract announcements were very good news and yet the SP has fallen from the 80 - 83 range it was trading in. Also as Prof has noted previously if the fundamentals were as good as report in the annual report recently then why has this not gone back up to approx £1? Im still out but watching like a hawk :-D may miss the boat but then again i might not and get a bargin if they fall....
http://www.youtube.com/killikfinancevideos Just for holders information........... 5:22 to 6:00
No, thats a fair point you make, and I agree the fundamentals look better than people thought (it was believed to be a basket case going the way of CNT and TRX) but I have a right to change my mind and also to make a bit more money/shares trading along the way ;-P And, as for trading the dips, well, we have one now, its dropped 5p since i got out. I will wait and see if it drops a little more, as I said below 70p ish buy back in........
Yeah, I was going to hold long term but something smells to me, XCH cant seem to push above the 83p mark, I have also noted a gradual sell off over the last 2 weeks which is weird as results were not the bag of crap people were expecting them to be......... Wondering if there is some more bad news to come yet (which we as PIs not privi to) as, if the results were not as bad as the company suggests then why have these not shot back up to £1+ I could be wrong and miss the boat, looking for sub 70p buy back in. But as Prof notes "im not smart enough to make money that way" As for trading the dips well, there aint really been any tbh...............
Hmm, drifting lower and over the last two weeks or so there has generally been more sells than buys, Im out at 81p and gonna wait and see if we get a retrace for a buy back opportunity, this needs some news to help it along. The news about the Aussie contract renewal didnt boost it at all.
400k Share buy, very nice, will correct yesterdays drop soon if we get more buys comming in soon...........
Read the Profs posts below, also look at their web page and their results, not half as bad as the analysists were suggesting, restructuring already started and a there is a possibility of a takeover by a larger company in the same business sector...... A return to divi next year will be a good yield at your original buy in price....
Mate, if you had been following the volumes yesterday then you will have noticed that there were approx 3 - 2 sells to buys (if my data is correct). Approx 1 million shares traded 600k - 400k, IMO thats the only reason we had a pull back. Volume is light this morning and price is steady. Sell out at your Peril, 100 a share very soon I reckon, with more to follow in the next 12 - 24 months......... Check the fundamentals and reports on their site if you are worried. Remember, patience is the key............
Gutted i couldnt sell first thing as I was at work :-( from 0500 ah well, will wait and see were we go over the next few days, interesting times ahead.........
http://telegraph.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/201103280900017174D.html?epic=XCH David Andrews has put 4 million shares of his XCH holding in a trust for his kids, if thats not a vote of long term confidence in this business I dont know what is....................
Fully agree with your sentiments and a nice little rise today. Keeps pulling back slightly as a few sells come in but just wondering if someone has started building a position on the QT and just not declared it yet, price is rising easily on low volumes...... Also, I agree that profit figure for this year £22.9million would appear to be distorted by one off writedowns and other items that they wanted out in the open, lets hope the "analysts" review XCH soon and we see further upgrades..........
http://www.xchanging.com/InvestorRelations/FinancialReportsPresentations.html Listen to the vid, very interesting and totally supports the investment case here. With the one off items such as Cambridge and the losses at the Italian business stripped out, XCH did better than last year with revenues and Profits similar/slightly better, their SP then was circa £2 a share. At current levels, if/when the divi is reinstated as well next year means a yield of approx 4% - 5%, that is excellent on top of the high possibility of a large SP increase....... May have to wait a while though (1 year timescale?). Also the possibility of a takeover looms with xch on such a low valuation, interesting times ahead and glad im in for the ride, Gelston? Prof? Any thoughts?