Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
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Extract
Highlights
· NSAI's best estimates of Kodiak's contingent recoverable resources sum to 1.2 billion barrels of marketable liquids (oil, condensate and natural gas liquids) and 5.4 trillion cubic feet of gas ("tcf").
· The new resource represents a 25% increase (963 to 1,208 million barrels ("mmbbls")) in recoverable marketable liquids compared to NSAI's previous 2023 report.
· The updated numbers include c. 43,000 of the c. 66,000 acres of the expanded acreage footprint post the successful lease bids in December 20231, and a higher average recovery rate due to the better reservoir properties in the shallower, updip portion of the field secured by the new leases.
· Kodiak is a large basin floor fan accumulation with three well penetrations. Recent drilling activity and acreage acquisition strategy has focused on moving structurally higher into better reservoir rocks where porosity and permeability are substantially improved.
· The potential improvement in reservoir quality in the newly acquired acreage underpins the c. 40% increase in the high estimate of recoverable resources to 2,840 mmbbls of marketable liquids and 11.75 tcf of natural gas.
· The 5.4 tcf of recoverable gas (Best Case) is important as additional support for a proposed agreement with Alaska Gasline Development Corp ("AGDC") to bring gas to southcentral Alaska markets.
Dear All - I've now had a moment to re-read the RNS and to mull over it. Something new occurred, to me anyway, which I thought worth highlighting.
I think we're all aware from webinars and Proactive interviews of Jay's saying, "Big oilfields get bigger and bigger."
I am happy to be corrected but I cannot recall a previous PANR RNS where Bob Rosenthal has, proverbially, opened the floodgates by giving tacit permission to shareholders to adjust their hopes/expectations to include the Upper Case figures, or High Estimate (3C). Knowing Bob a wee bit, I don't think he would have been comfortable being formally quoted in such a manner had he not possessed, in his own mind and cautious character, pretty concrete supportive data to deliver such a nudge to shareholders.
Have a look at the difference between the Best and High Estimates for marketable liquids within Kodiak. The Best Estimate is 1208mmbo and the High Estimate is 2814mmbo. I suggest that Bob Rosenthal's quote in today's RNS is quite intentional on the Board's part and we would do well to keep Bob's language in mind.
"Bob Rosenthal, Technical Director of Pantheon commented:
"This NSAI report reveals the true scale of the Kodiak Field now that we have secured leases over its full extent. The potential upside is vast - NSAI recognise a high estimate in excess of 2.8 billion barrels of recoverable marketable liquids and nearly 12 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas. As we drill wells and obtain additional data, our goal is to progressively move the 'best case estimate' towards NSAI's 'high case estimate' over time.
"Discovering a billion-barrel oil accumulation is what companies dream about and the Independent Expert Report by NSAI validates our Company's significant achievements over the past decade. We can now turn our attention to development, along with our growing Ahpun resource, to turn these volumes to cashflow and value for shareholders."
Dear All - please find below a first reaction summary from Canaccord, dated 9/4/24. TP remains at 85p, fyi.
"Kodiak contingents
Canaccord Genuity view
Pantheon has today released an independent expert's report (IER) conducted by Netherland, Sewell & Associates which accesses [scot126 - "assesses", surely?] the gross contingent resources of the Kodiak acreage in Northern Alaska. The IER presents a 1C, 2C, and 3C estimate for the field:
• Best estimate (2C) of 425.8 mmbbl of oil, 782.1 mmbbl of natural gas liquids, and 5,396.3 bcf of residue gas.
• Low estimate (1C) of 168.5 mmbbl of oil, 299.9 mmbbl of natural gas liquids, and 2,175.4 bcf of residue gas.
• High estimate (3C) of 1,029.7 mmbbl of oil, 1,811.6 mmbbl of natural gas liquids, and 11,748.6 bcf of residue gas.
The IER's 2C estimate represents a 25% increase in Kodiak's reserves [scot126 - "contingent resources", surely?] from the previous report made in August 2023 to 1,208 mmbbl, recognising c.43,000 of the c.66,000 acres of the expanded acreage footprint.
Valuation, target price and rating
We note that this announcement confirms the scale of the opportunity presented by Kodiak for Pantheon, and supports an attractive outlook for the company. However, we leave our target price and rating unchanged while we digest the impact, especially considering the need for further appraisal and the nearer-term focus on Ahpun.
Squeeze will come soon, from what I can see Mangrove still have a position and took more at 22p, plonkers.... when will they choose to try to escape.
We miss you please come back
Its as easy a hold as I have ever seen tbh.
Calm down chaps.
Let's wait for 50p and all the other milestones to £1 and leave the nonsense numbers for elsewhere.
I am in this and want it past 50p, However, the US punters are not going to make a difference.
£5 I like that, but seems a bit steep! nonetheless the numbers don't lie and they are bloody impressive, imo we will be bought out. Name you price!
got to surpass 50p today with ease, esp once those pesky yanks begin to rise.
I under-estimated...methinks..coukd giva lot higher.imo
LIfeofPI me too, this has got £5 written all over it next year. Possibly £3 later this year.
Gla
If Mangrove are let them burn! They brought the price down to its knees.
This is what's getting me excited:
"The 5.4 tcf of recoverable gas (Best Case) is important as additional support for a proposed agreement with Alaska Gasline Development Corp ("AGDC") to bring gas to southcentral Alaska markets."
Are mangrove still involved? I can't see this going down too much after the great RNS, these guys will get burnt and should fire us towards or maybe over 50p, it depends how long mangrove hang in there but surely they'll get a margin call if it goes too high
In auction and likely to blow!!
And we're on course for a record volume day
Oh look gordonbennett is here, pumped Enet dumped it and now moved to this one now
23% up and again back into auction
SQUEEZE
SQUEEZE
SQUEEZE
SQUEEZE
SQUEEZE
SQUEEZE
SQUEEZE
SQUEEZE
SQUEEZE
SQUEEZE
SQUEEZE
SQUEEZE
SQUEEZE
SQUEEZE
SQUEEZE
SQUEEZE
SQUEEZE ....pop.. dear o dear Mangrove what an error could have closed it all at 10p ..got greedy and added another £2mln bet at 22p ... ouch that's got to hurt and they STILL have it open !!!! ouch
SQUEEZE ....pop.. dear o dear Mangrove what an error could have closed it all at 10p ..got greedy and added another £2mln bet at 22p ... ouch that's got to hurt and they STILL have it open !!!! ouch
BIG Squeeze Sir mark!! 50p next stop imo
Over 41p paid there.
The squeeze is on !!!!
50p pre drink party before the £1party
Market...... They need it IMHO.