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Lifted from the South African section of 'Daily Investor' : -
"Research from RMB Morgan Stanley shows that the private sector will effectively replace Eskom’s generation fleet in the next two years.
The utility’s performance has deteriorated markedly over the last few years, with 2023 seeing record levels of load-shedding.
However, the narrative around electricity generation and load-shedding is beginning to change. It is gradually becoming more positive.
The private sector is filling the void left by Eskom in a similar fashion to how private airlines filled the void left by the collapse of South African Airways.
South Africa is experiencing a boom in solar installations, with over 4,400 MW of rooftop solar installed outside of the government-procured solar. This is expected to increase by 420% by 2030.
Data from Eskom and Professor Anton Eberhard revealed that South African households and businesses had installed 4,412 MW of rooftop solar in the 12 months to June 2023, a 349% increase from March 2022."
My guess is when South African load shedding reaches an inflexion point sometime in 2024 and starts to diminish, South African miners will start to come back in favour and PAFs PE will come back in line with other mid tier miners. Also, with gold now breaking out as US interest rates start to reverse their recent 18 month ascent, plus Mintails around the corner, PAF is a 12 month investment which should easily provide a 100% return from current levels.
Mulder, Goldseek highest quote for POG was $2081/Oz today. The resistance ( I am told) was 2070 and we are through this resistance level. next stop 2500?
Why is PAF so muted in it's response? 0,12% increase? More than $750 margin profit per Oz!
Reminder that AISC is around $1325 so almost a $750 margin per ounce currently.
Mulder, do you mean production 215koz or POG = 2100$/oz?
4.5p EPS full year, without mintails and post tax.
In any case, annual report based on average POG=1863$/oz. Even without Mintails, EPS should reach 3.52 - 3.81 GBx respectively to 178 - 190 koz production in 2024. If gold keeps 2000$/oz and production according plan, EPS will be 34% - 48% higher than this year.
I hear you, although Mintails does not hit revenues until FY2025 plus the full advance Mintails financing expenditure will be in FY2024.
With Mintails the forward P/E drops to 2.8, at a $2,000 gold price and AISC of $1325
You are using last years figures. Check the latest updates.
Mintails will also increase output by 25% next year.
Mulder, how are you getting 3x earnings? I am reading US 3.15 cents headline EPS for year ending June 2023. That's 3.15/1.27 pence at today's GBP/USD FX rate = 2.48 p. Today's share closing price of 16.94p gives a price to earnings of 16.94/2.48 = 6.83 x earnings.
I wouldn't hold your breath with this one. There are very sinister, dark forces at play here keeping it down. By no means the only London listed stock being illegally kept down at a ridiculously low multiple - that's my view anyway, the regulators have all the 'facts'. I posted links a few days ago. It is sad how a growth company with gold at record highs can be valued at just 3x earnings but alas this is how stupid and corrupt this market is. The way of the world....
No correlation between SP and price of gold. Otherwise SP would be around 27-28. I purchased PAF when SP was 23.6 and POG=1850 and gold production 175 koz. Now expecting a sort of eruption. More likely after holidays when investors have time to analyse and revise algos.
Hi TrekMadone, I submitted the form with 10%.
C. 2.5p EPS for half year ending 31/12/23
Update in Jan
Hi selpec,
Thanks for the link 15th Dec, 19:15.
Just a stupid question. What % did you write in the reduction box below the declaration.
My shares are in an ISA but I can think of three different answers to write in and obviously only one is right!
TIA
Trek
With such price of gold, PAF revenue will be 159M instead of 140M forecast in H1 2024.
Assume more pump than dump tomorrow....
Where's Allan Gray and Wheaton?
Has been going on for months where PAF is concerned, possibly years but the discrepancy is worsening.
Look at DEC...difference of around 15%!
All shareholders need to complete the FCA form below and/or email Hethen Hira, head of Investor Relations. He claims to have contacted the LSE about it, but we need strength in numbers.
In terms of this scandal ridden government how many are aware that doctors are effectively being replaced by non-doctors in this country, with thousands of General Practitioners now effectively unemployed? Physician Associates (with just 2 years training in healthcare), pharmacists, paramedics and yes even ex podiatrists are seeing patients on their own in the GP setting. Similar things are going on in the hospital. A PA starts on about £44,000; a 1st year doctor is starting on around £32K after 5-6 years at med school. One reason why the junior docs are striking.
Have you EVER. (auto text made my sentence appear rude rather than a normal question)
Good new documentary by the FT about Eskon.
https://www.ft.com/video/8f1da4b6-fa36-4000-a2c6-22f92f52e3a9
It's amazing how corruption bought it down over only a couple for decades, then again look at the current Tory government, 13 years in and the NHS, public services and large structure projects are almost now just bones for the vultures. . All those 10s of billions of public money wasted into PPE, fraud, track & trace etc. Michelle Mone epitomises the entitled nature of these vultures, as it's all now openly corrupt, fast lane embezzlement. It goes to show that corruption and greed is not exclusively right wing.
Can they sort it out ?
@Mulder. Have you even noticed this difference before ? Is it the constant outflows of money from the LSE since Brexit that's doing this, as has been widely noted amongst shares. ? Whenever I've check the difference over the years, it's always been a bit different but nothing too much, like a maximum of up to half a penny.
It takes 2 minutes to complete the FCA form.
Also been on the blower to the LSE.
Tel
020 797 1000
Https://www.fca.org.uk/market-abuse-reporting-form
As a shareholder everyone should complete this, highlighting the lower London price vs SA and the low cut throat UT every single day.
Blatant manipulation.
Hi Mulder. Interesting offer but it looks pretty low, as if Shanta's BOD have thrown in the towel. I guess an equivalent would be if PAF was offered 18p/19p, which Loots, and every shareholder I'm sure would reject.
Still, the point you make is great, since that large mining funding/off-take, bigger miners are certainly shopping for value and bargains in SA.
M&A rising in this sector.
Gold has been trading over 2000$/oz almost one month. Not bad.