Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
The difference between last years EBITDA of $11.5m and guided 2024 EBITDA of $8.5m is just 6 dollars increase in the $/Kg price of iodine. (assuming a mere 500 MT annual production). It was premature to guide on EBITDA for 2024 already in mid April, unless management can accurately forecast iodine prices for the entire rest of the year!
Gavster, there is debt.
Mintails feasibility study estimated construction capex at ZAR 2.5 billion. In December 2022 PAF issued two bonds for ZAR 800 million, scheduled to expire EOY 2025 and 20127. In March they received an up front premium of ZAR 400 million to sell 4846 oz/month gold @ fixed price of just ZAR 1.025m/Kg. The balance of the construction costs will come out of their ZAR 1.3 billion credit term sheet with RMB - it's the reduction of this ZAR 1.3 billion balance that PAF would make best use of their increased POG profitability.
I would prefer PAF to accelerate repayment of debt with their POG increased profitability and so further improve bottom line earnings. Also thereafter to initiate stock buy backs, also to improve EPS. Both of which help SP. Reasons being I would rather pay just the 20% capital gains tax on share price gains than on dividend tax which then comes on top of 20% South African withholding tax (I have had no success reclaiming and reducing this to 10%. I did download Selpec's DTA form (thank you) but don't understand how this facilitates my reclaim when my online brokers say they cannot help).
Lifted from the South African section of 'Daily Investor' : -
"Research from RMB Morgan Stanley shows that the private sector will effectively replace Eskom’s generation fleet in the next two years.
The utility’s performance has deteriorated markedly over the last few years, with 2023 seeing record levels of load-shedding.
However, the narrative around electricity generation and load-shedding is beginning to change. It is gradually becoming more positive.
The private sector is filling the void left by Eskom in a similar fashion to how private airlines filled the void left by the collapse of South African Airways.
South Africa is experiencing a boom in solar installations, with over 4,400 MW of rooftop solar installed outside of the government-procured solar. This is expected to increase by 420% by 2030.
Data from Eskom and Professor Anton Eberhard revealed that South African households and businesses had installed 4,412 MW of rooftop solar in the 12 months to June 2023, a 349% increase from March 2022."
My guess is when South African load shedding reaches an inflexion point sometime in 2024 and starts to diminish, South African miners will start to come back in favour and PAFs PE will come back in line with other mid tier miners. Also, with gold now breaking out as US interest rates start to reverse their recent 18 month ascent, plus Mintails around the corner, PAF is a 12 month investment which should easily provide a 100% return from current levels.
Mulder, how are you getting 3x earnings? I am reading US 3.15 cents headline EPS for year ending June 2023. That's 3.15/1.27 pence at today's GBP/USD FX rate = 2.48 p. Today's share closing price of 16.94p gives a price to earnings of 16.94/2.48 = 6.83 x earnings.
I failed miserably last year trying to reclaim my dividend withholding tax, despite holding PAF across three separate online brokers, each one declining to process the reclaim. Selpec, were you actually successful in reclaiming the tax and if so how did you avoid having the broker making an automatic deduction?