The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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NYAS Publications 14/01/22 https://nyaspubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/nyas.14739#.YebbGAUpW4I.twitter UK HCS programme ongoing. ‘Head to head’ trials planned. Recent survey/focus groups show ‘strong support’ for trials to commence.
Longer term, challenge studies can be instrumental for accelerating development of current vaccine candidates. With the availability of effective vaccines, placebo groups in phase 3 studies will soon no longer be an ethically viable option. Head-to-head human challenge vaccine studies can rapidly provide data on the efficacy of new vaccines, new formulations of existing vaccines, or efficacy against viral variants. To mitigate the inherent risks involved, the UK COVID Challenge Study is being conducted in a low-risk population, namely those 18–30 years of age, in whom severe outcomes are rare and symptoms typically resolve within months. Chiu also stressed the importance of extensive public and participant involvement and engagement. Recent surveys and focus groups in the UK show strong support for a human challenge study.
Europe reports record Covid 19 numbers….as fifth wave starts..
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/jan/18/coronavirus-news-live-poland-enters-fifth-covid-wave-australia-reports-record-daily-death-toll?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with%3Ablock-61e704fc8f08d4a2252dc3f0
Orph Twitter: We are delighted to be working with
@PneumagenLtd
to test its pan-antiviral product Neumifil, using
@hVIVO_UK
https://t.co/f8HqN72aEcs world leading #Influenza human challenge study model at our state-of-the-art facilities in Whitechapel.
.." Recent surveys and focus groups in the UK show strong support for a human challenge study..."
Unfortunately, even though this may be the case - which I agree anecdotally, as a participant in one of the Imperial focus groups - public enthusiasm and support doesn't seem to have moved a still very 'conservative' establishment. Whether medical or political I'm not clear....
There does appear to be a substantial body of resistance to 'boundary-pushing' innovation in the medical field : the public is way ahead of the system in support for other things, like use of medical marijuana for epilepsy in children and psilocybin for treatment of depression and addictions eg alcohol and tobacco.
As it is, it seems quite likely that the coronavirus pandemic will be 'over' before the CHIM studies HMG contracted with ORPH get seriously under way.
IMO
The French and Italian may not agree with you. Have you seen the numbers? This pandemic will not be over for some time yet.
it may not be over but would like it under control if possible
I’m not sure whether the pandemic falls away this year or not will have any significant bearing on the funding of CHIMs. If it raises its head with a serious mutation it stays high profile, if it becomes endemic with a milder version, easier/less risky to move into challenge studies. Most of Orph revenues come from RSV and Influenza, a mild Coronavirus would just add another string to their bow - Influenza studies will contribute 25mn ish this FY despite being endemic - still a key target for pharma.
HRA sign off? IS THIS THE ONE???
https://twitter.com/Jigger93609885/status/1483769467297574913?t=7EpEQPVCNCNDhVh7qfIE3g&s=19
anyone buying is mad. I'd say the sector is shot. 10-12p coming.
Seriously? And your evidence for this is what??????
You are about to see a life science super cycle of which infectious disease treatments which have lagged for 25 years will be springing up left right and centre. Respiratory viruses are massively under served. Vaccines need testing, new antivirals for Respiratory viruses will need testing and early work needs a controlled trial. Hvivo is front and centre here and demand will remain for years. Seriously, have a word with yourself.
Seriously? And your evidence for this is what??????
You are about to see a life science super cycle of which infectious disease treatments which have lagged for 25 years will be springing up left right and centre. Respiratory viruses are massively under served. Vaccines need testing, new antivirals for Respiratory viruses will need testing and early work needs a controlled trial. Hvivo is front and centre here and demand will remain for years. Seriously, have a word with yourself. As a virology/bacteriology trained scientist I have no qualms holding this whilst hvivo have the lead in delivering rsv, flu human rhinovirus, asthma studies for potential treatments and vaccines. Add in new models expansion for Coronaviruses and shareprice will look after itself. Data licensing will add more revenue either as spin out DIM or via one offs if DIM never happens for areas of interest for diagnostics (an area I work in professionally) as human or host response Data will be key in some exciting assays to predict infection outcome. Throw in other assets that may get sold like prep and imutex then risk here is low with really decent risk profile for a quite large potential reward.
Literally you have no clue.
You would think so Nathan.
But do we really know what Friels growth strategy is?
Short term leases on Boutique Hotels?
It'll be interestimng to see what happens to all those that have piled into travel and airline stocks etc when Russia invades Ukraine in a few weeks time? I see OO as a very defensive stock at these times with the potential for significant growth opportunities with big Pharma's spending all those £billions on new drug/vaccine development they have made from Covid 19 sales.
Why not short-term lease of underused hotels, hospital ward or isolation suite not needed for non corona work as minimal risk for general population for flu and rsv. Cheap, available. Many many tens of potential antiviral or therapeutic antibodies in pre clinical or phase 1 close that will be needing to be efficacy tested for flu alone. Can bring to market quicker via challenge study, cheaper than mass population study. Evidence of this is in front of your eyes, hvivo activity way above previous years. Will protect or raise margins as value of challenge study is seen. If they only got to 25% of new proposed agents that got throug phase 1 and safety we will be doing very well. Now replicate for other viral targets like rsv, corona, rhinovirus. Add in vaccines, add in new agents like malaria, group a strep, c.diff, norovirus, salmonella. Capacity will be needed, price can be set accordingly and volume of work available as potential deals will be high. Tell me whonelse will be doing these then if we won't be????
I'm sorry a plan on the back of an envelope is not something the investment community buy.
London will be back to normal this year and prices per sq meter will shoot up again.
They think its all over - well it isn't now.
Too much bullcarp from the Tories as a deflector to the mess this country is in apart from "party plans".
What % of the worlds popn are still unvaccinated > 50% & an in an inter-connected world = big problem still with us potentially with Covid let alone any other nasties out there.
Plenty of different options and if cost of rental space goes up then this can be passed on to end customer. Or they rent rooms in a private hospital, plenty in London, or they look outside of London where prices maybe lower. Not sure.london will return to normal for a whole while yet. Making an issue where there isn't one.
No issue?Are you on crack?
The share price has dropped over 60%!
So you saying price is down 60% because we won't find a space to do all the work we will likely be signed to do. Are you on crack? Price is what it is and happy with CF leading the ship and happy with my investment. If your not , then sell and go ahead reinvesting in a company that will meet your requirements. Patience is a virtue
"London will be back to normal this year and prices per sq meter will shoot up again."
Have you been to that part of London? If not, go! Its like a ghost town. I pass through there regularly.
Anyway I don't see space as an issue anyway, theres always SGS we can hit up if we need to. Otherwise I fully expect a merger/takeover to happen later this year after approvals have been given and then start spending money. Which given recent published documents by Gov etc, it seems very close now, simply a waiting game. To write human challenge studies into pretty much their future plans and guidance is a massive endorsement for Orph/Hvivo.
Pointless spending cash when theres no immediate need to.
I would also start reading where the Gov are allocating money to, IMO there is funding available to help with the pandemic preparedness which includes the 100 day vaccine plan (human challenge studies a key part of this), theres a plan in place and just trust the process.
Nathan,
I am sure you are well aware capacity is not an issue for hVivo. If anyone doubts this, then I suggest they pin their ears back and listen to what CF says when asked. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5BUghTUOzg
No worries on capacity from.me!!! Very happy investor with the great news today. Good luck all.