Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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A measured and very fair summation of the current situation silver. My only gripe is that CF has not shelled out much to own such a considerable proportion of ORPH - smaller shareholders have as usual taken the major risk but such is life. All looking good nonetheless.
I agree with Timber. Good article Silverfox. It's refreshing to read about facts and figures for a change rather than petty squabbles all the time and finger pointing. The core business is very solid as you pointed out, profitable, growing and with a substantial cash pile. I think the core business is in safe hands with Mo. The spin outs will come, but they take time. Cathal is deliberately keeping a low profile this time, having been accused of over-egging in the past, but I'm sure he's pulling a few strings in the background and getting deals done. News on spin-outs could come any day now.
Thanks, SilverFox. Finally someone on here who talks sense and facts, rather than whingeing about short term share price declines/volatility, and pointing the finger at an Exec. Chairman who has massively increased turnover and is actually doing an excellent job.
There is a lot going on behind the scenes which will reward the patient. Most of those who aren’t patient don’t even realise they are in the wrong place.
To add to the "constrained" debate, the business is forecast to achieve £40m turnover for 2021 which is far in excess of historic turnover. Plus a conservative forecast for 2022 of £50m plus for non-covid work (any covid work could significantly increase this) representing at least a 25% increase in turnover. That is impressive by any standards. CF has made it clear that adding new bed capacity it not a problem and will be done as and when the demand justifies it. Clearly it makes sense to ensure that existing capacity is fully utilised before incurring cost to add extra capacity.
So the core business really is flying with Mo Khan confirming that the pipeline is larger than it has ever been. In my view the core business itself justifies the broker target of 44p. The spin offs could significantly add to this. I would hope Prep would realise at least 3p per share. But Imutex and Disease in Motion should each achieve higher valuations. It is not difficult to imagine a situation in which the value for these sin-offs plus POLB already spun out could in the not too distant future exceed the market cap of Orph.
In the March presentation CF also indicated exciting plans for the growing cash war chest. My guess is that this might be an acquisition to help expand the business into wider Phase I/II trials. That would be a good use of the money and make Orph bigger and more suited to a NASDFAQ listing. He has also hinted at a possible merger with a larger CRO. Whatever others may think of CF (and he has got carried away in the past with his enthusiasm and missed timings) he is at heart a deal maker. Not only that but he is the single largest shareholder and he can only realistically realise the value in his investment by a sale/merger ( he has rightly said in the past that if he sold any shares the share price would plummet) so in my view once the spin offs have been done that will be his target. His interests in maximising returns for shareholders are perfectly aligned with other shareholders.
How do you like them apples?
RR - every business is constrained to some extent - manufacturing capacity, number of employees etc.
OO has added almost 50% bed capacity recently and also enhanced the Manchester flu camp testing offering to avoid unnecessary trips to London.
Furthermore, the recent contract shows that OO is expanding its offering to provide more flexible testing/monitoring that doesn't require a patient to be monitored in house 24/7
There is also DIM spin off, which listening to background noise an announcement shouldn't be far away. Then there is Imutex and Prep as well to hand value back to shareholders.
Constrained by properties, number of beds, number/type of volunteers. This business cannot 'explode' it's a steady earner with good progressive growth prospects. The make a quick buck boys should try elsewhere imho. Just my view DYOR.
Moni lmao, if you are into binary investments go ahead and do that.
"constrained" by what?
If that's the case, should CF and Mo encourage everyone to dump their OO shares and pile into Poolbeg...that's real loyalty to OO long term holders isn't it?
They could still grow a lot in the next 3 years, but yes OO is not a binary play
Its not really unbelievable as Poolbeg is a completely different business model to Orph. Poolbeg can have an international blockbuster or a set of duds whereas Orph will be a steady but constrained earner over a long period of time.
Unbelievable that Poolbeg will be worth more than Open Orphan at the rate Poolbeg is climbing since yesterday..up nearly 100% since the low on Tuesday...it's all a mystery to me...
Sully dumping POLB at 5p is a lesson in being governed by emotions. OO and POLB are of course very different businesses but both are doing good things! Patience needed, sentiment will turn.
.."..what the he'll is going on if anyone can fathom it out...because I can't ?.."
Progress !
Moniman has gone from blaming everything on CF to blaming everything on the market...
;->
When you look at some of those lofty valuations on loss making AIM stocks with barely any turnover, it does make me wonder why we are so far from the 44p broker target...I hope CF and Mo genuinely have some nice surprises in the next few weeks...
I get where are you are coming from Moni. I’m invested in AGL and it’s potential is enormous, hence imo the valuation. They have been working for over six years to gain FDA approval and today is a major milestone. I have never doubted the company, even though I averaged up and was in the red most of the time so today has admittedly been a good day for me.
Great day for POLB as well.
Well looking at riser board today, Polbeg is on their at 20% but more interesting is a company ( ticker AGL ) went up 58% on FDA drug approval. Their last results show only (wait for it) £1 million in revenue with a LOSS of £15 million, they have a valuation of (get ready) £368 million...!!! Yet Open Orphan looking at revenues of close to £35 million this year, £50 million next year, £15 million cash in the bank with operational profits, yet OO valuation languishing at about £80 million....what the he'll is going on if anyone can fathom it out...because I can't ?
So as it stands right now, I am £12k up on polb, £30k down on Orph. Baffling to say the least. I just hope the year end results aren't already baked in to the Sp and we get a 20% uplift post ER.
It's a great decision selling well below a 5.9p offer that was resoundingly turned down just a matter of days ago, well done!
Maybe 20% of FA.
Just glad to get out of my portfolio to be honest
GL mate
Sully - should have held off on Polb till this afternoon - you would have been 20% better off
Wasn’t just talking about what I posted. I was talking in general.
Anyway good luck you will need it with this company….
I’m off GLA
All you've done is 6 posts saying I'm selling, I have sold, by the way I've sold?
It’s amazing how any constructive negative posts get deleted off here.
I’m now completely out of ORPH & POLB. As mentioned yesterday I received my POLB shares yesterday over a month late and have sold this morning.
GLA the genuine PI’s on here.