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As that RNS relating to AIQ was from 6 October 2022 I don't see how it has any relevance to the Chill.
It does feel though as though as if there is a struggle going on for control of Chill. It may be that Mr Swann converted his loan into shares in order to put himself in a position to requisition a general meeting. Whatever the case, as he is now a significant shareholder it is clearly in his best interests to see the share price head north. He must see great potential for the business or else he would not have invested so much. All this uncertainty is unsettling but the fact that folk are fighting over control of Chill suggests they think it is worth fighting for. I continue to hold.
It's even better than that. The proposal is for the tax to be higher for vapes with higher nicotine so this would give Chill's nicotine free vapes (or low nicotine vapes when introduced) a cost advantage over competitors.
This is great news.
I did wonder from the interview with the CEO whether he was hinting at a possible out licensing of the rights for Europe (possibly Bracco or Phillips might be interested?). That might be a neat way of getting a substantial upfront payment and future royalties whilst retaining rights to the key US market where the biggest returns are to be made. It would of course have the added value of avoiding shareholder dilution.
Appreciate the reply laconic. It would be really useful if the company was more upfront about its revised financial targets. Without that its difficult to assess how much funding will be required before the business is cash positive.
I remain (hopefully not naively) enthusiastic about the technology and its potential.
Communication with shareholders in the past has been poor and needs to improve. But for me this is so oversold it should not take too much (sorting out the short term funding requirements being foremost) to see this rise significantly north. If the funding is sorted and the commercial role out starts to pick up, I don't see why this could not be back above 50p in 2024. Of course there are risks but the risk: reward analysis looks favourable to me.
Does anyone know how many systems POLX needs to sell in order to get to cashflow positive? These are early days but it would be helpful to understand the scale of the commercial uptake that is required. I appreciate you need to make some assumptions about utilisation once an institution has bought a system.
On funding, from the interviews I've seen it did feel like management were hoping to secure funding from partners rather than dilutive funding. Given the huge advantages of the POLX technology you would have thought that this was achievable but time will tell. Either way ,I do expect the funding issue to be resolved before the end of Q1 and (unless this is very dilutive funding which must be the last resort) you would expect a significant rerate in the share price at that point. You do also wonder why Phillips or one of its competitors does not just swallow up POLX. At the current market price with ground breaking technology that outcome must also be a reasonable possibility. Be interested to hear the views of others.
I would be delighted to be proved wrong but I think 45p to 50p is more realistic at the moment but obviously this figure should rise as HVO continues to grow - particularly with the improved margins resulting from the new premises.
I do get the feeling listening to his interviews that CF is looking to sell HVO and significantly increase his investment in POLB. As a service provider the upside at HVO is more limited than POLB where CF is looking to replicate Amryt Pharma which rose from a £35m market cap to be sold for $1.48bn. That said, HVO is my single biggest holding as I see it as very safe, recession proof and likely to be sold for a significant premium from today's value within the not too distant future.
And like CF, Mo cannot realistically sell shares even when he does exercise his options as that would give the wrong signal to the market. So he is likely to hold them until either HVO is sold or he leaves HVO (hopefully the former).
The reality is that Mo holding the options gives him an added incentive to grow the business and the share price. So his interests, like those of CF, are aligned with other shareholders.
Mo and CF are doing a great job in my opinion. In view of CF's historic comments on an exit and the terrific progress made by the business, it can only be a matter of time before HVO is sold - either to another larger CRO or to a private equity buyer. The big question is how much does CF think is a good price?
This RNS suggests that the supermarket previously announced is ASDA which is under common ownership with Eurogarages. In fact lots of EG petrol stations are having their convenience stores rebranded as ASDA Express stores.
Just a guess but let's hope this is the case as it would be great news for Chill Brands.
This RNS suggests that the supermarket previously announced is ASDA. I say that because ASDA and Eurogarages have common ownership. In fact lots of the Eurogarages convenience stores at their petrol stations are being rebranded as ASDA Express stores.
If this is the case this would be great news for CHLLL.
This is not really surprising. A lot of shares were issued on the conversion of the loan notes and some of those holders are clearly choosing to cash in for more than double the price they paid. Fair play to them and nothing wrong with that. But I think what Callum said in today's Sunday Roast interview on this point is valid - this is just the start of the journey for Chill. The vapes only launched in August. 2024 promises to be an exciting year. And don't forget that Callum and other management have a common interest with shareholders. The share options recently granted to them only vest when the share price reaches 8p, 16p, 32p and 40p. I think there is a realistic chance of the shares getting somewhere in that range over the next 12 months and so I for one am holding. The revenues are likely to escalate markedly throughout next year as the products gain commercial traction. Once the overhang of the converted loan note shares are cleared the SP could move north very quickly as it has in the past and when that happens it can be difficult to buy. So if , having done your research, you believe the story then in my opinion now is a good time to get onboard. Good luck to all shareholders and let's hope for a great year for Chill Brands in 2024.
Let the traders take their profits. Nothing wrong with that. But the real money is to be made from holding until the true value of this business is realised. Several detailed broker valuations out there at north of £2.50 and those are based purely on NTCD-M3 for which Dest has a partnership deal. These valuations exclude XF73 which is likely to be worth significantly more than NTCD-M3. I for one am holding for the long term.
I for one would rather have the right deal rather than a quick deal for POLB001. Anyone who can't be bothered to show patience and let JS and CF secure the right deal behind the scenes is invested in the wrong stock.
I have great confidence in JS. He is not one for BS. He is a scientist which tends to lead to him being cautious and not make claims which may not come to fruition. This is to be applauded. I have every confidence that patience will be rewarded with an excellent deal for POLB001.
According to the Destiny Pharma website Sir Nigel Rudd already owns over 2.4m shares (2.53% of the total shares in issue) so his interests are already very much aligned with those of other shareholders.
According to Destiny Pharma's website, Sir Nigel Rudd already owns over 2.4m shares (2.53% of the issued share capital) so I think he has already got plenty of skin in the game. His interests are very much aligned with those of other shareholders.
JS said in a recent interview that as POLB001 is POLB's prize asset they want to make sure they get the right deal. Personally I would rather have the right deal rather than a quick deal. They don't need cash so there is no reason to rush into a poor deal and they can afford to wait for the best deal for shareholders. I'm happy to wait for that and I'm confident that patience will be rewarded.
a buyout would NOW be in the best interests of shareholders.
Apologies for the typo.
Agreed. It is amazing that the market cap is now so low when the technology is superb and the opportunities so great. What the management seem to have failed to appreciate is that they have a large group of private investors who need reassuring that there is a good return to be had for their investment. They are technically excellent but what is now needed is some inspirational leadership and a fast commercial rollout.
I too think that a buyout would not be in the best interests of shareholders (of which I am one) as I have no confidence that these guys will promptly achieve the full potential of this superb technology.
The official answer is that DIM has not been spun out because of the depressed IPO market. There is clearly some truth in that. However, that rather begs the question (which others have asked) why not start DIM as a business under HVO ownership? It could then be spun out at a later date when the markets permit.
My own suspicion ( and I may be wrong - it would not be the first time) is that CF wants to give POLB a good period of exclusivity with the human challenge study data before allowing others a bite of the cherry. CF did hint at this being the case in one of the investor presentations before Mo took the reins.
Good news if you also hold POLB (as most on here probably do). POLB has already identified a number of drug targets using AI which could be very lucrative.
Another reason hinted at by CF is that there are high price expectations for DIM (he's made a rod for his own back there) so no doubt he will be reluctant to spin it out unless he can achieve a price that reflects the perceived value of DIM.
My own view, for what it is worth, is that one of either DIM or Imutex will one day match or exceed the current market cap of HVO. I'd expect that if at some point the much anticipated takeover offer comes for HVO then CF will want to do a deal which carves out Imutex, DIM and Prep so that these can be retained for additional value for shareholders.
Current delays notwithstanding, for those willing to hold for a year or two these non core assets represent a significant opportunity for shareholders underpinned by the core business which, under Mo's excellent leadership, is flying.
There could be any number of innocent explanations. Possibly an administrative oversight. Possibly AH and the board are still trying to agree his package. I wouldn't get too excited about this but agree it would be nice to have
clarification.
The Company undertook a capital reduction which was approved in May last year and created significant distributable reserves so there is no issue in declaring dividends. See the extract below form the company's announcement:
"As at 31 December 2020, there was £44,494,997 standing to the credit of the Company's share premium account and the accumulated retained earnings deficit on the Company's statement of financial position had also increased.
The Directors therefore feel it is appropriate to seek shareholder approval to effect the Reduction of Capital and, subject to the approval of the Shareholders and of the Court, to:
2.1
cancel the Company's share premium account; and
2.2
cancel all of the Deferred Shares.
"The Directors then propose to apply the reserve arising on the Reduction of Capital to eliminate the Company's accumulated retained earnings deficit on its statement of financial position and, as to the balance, to create distributable profits on the balance sheet of the Company of approximately £39,388,000."