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I can't understand the negativity here either. It's ludicrous. MB has spent a lot of time undermining AVCT (on their board/) so I guess he's in denial. Because if/when this is confirmed he may feel a little bit embarrassed or even owe an apology to AVCT investors?
Symbo1 guess what? The stock exchange is very much made of hopes! That's what investment in high growth companies is all about. AVCT are credible. It's silly to say otherwise. They have a £300 million investment from a very large pharma, Cyvicta. We don't know if the government's 'pregnancy style testing kit' is one of our's or AVCT's. But now we are covered either way! The delays are starting to make me think it could be AVCT's. They have been focusing on developing and manufacturing the reagents for a good while. Reagents are the critical material that we are short of -one of the problems causing hold ups alongside the time involved in processing lab tests. All good that we are squarely on their radar. We can manufacture according to demand. The fact that we have more partnerships puts us in a better negotiating position for our price to some extent. The zone of manoeuvre on price is limited because we aren't the only manufacturer in the world. GLA!
Tricky what i said about Avacta is fairly accurate in terms of where they are in the process and the risk to the downside at the mcap, and the fact that Affimers have never led to a commercial product. I wouldn't say i have spent a lot of time, just given my honest view. Having watched the presentation today and read the results it has only validated my opinions.
Whether you think Avacta will be successful or not, the point is we already have much more exciting products that we will commercialise. How can you get excited about a tie up with a product that is yet to go through clinical trials that at best we might get 30% margin on if we directed our capacity to, when we have products we can make 50% minimum margin on? To put in layman's terms, why would i use 1m capacity to manufacture a test for Avactas to sell, when i can make my own test instead and sell it.
People put Avacta on a pedestal like they have every achieved anything, well they have not and until they have it will only be speculative. Mologic on the other hand have proven track record with a product already used in a Heathrow trial
MB its irrelevant, we have NOT stopped any manufacturing to make space for what might come from AVCT.
How is that a bad thing?
MB, you have spent all day on their board sometimes. I don't know if you have noticed but no-one has been successfully confirmed amongst new generation tests yet. ODX won't agree anything unless it works for them financially obviously. The article said they will be selling in the US too.
Its also limited thinking MB. All manufactuers have x capacity but most if given the opportunity to ramp production and make more profit would generally do so. Odx will also want to engage positively with government priorities and if that partly means running large amounts of antigen lft production when r is high then so be it. Imagine the ?? for odx if either or both the mologic and avacta antigen lft come good for them
Everything they talk about is conditional on one very big important thing...... getting a validated approved test to market, and it is clear sensitivity is going to be questionable. People are treating it as if the chances of success are 100% which quite simply is far from the case. People have been saying there, they are in Condor which means approval is coming any day and a government order for 100s millions is coming any day. Today's presentation backs up my comments when i tried to argue this on the BB recently. They haven't even got final pilot batches ready for clinical trial yet. The simple fact is Affimers are only proven in the lab and there is a high chance that they may fail to achieve a suitable product. There is so much to be achieved to even get one test available for sale let alone expecting every single lateral flow manufacturer is going to be begging to make them for them. We have been through the very same process with UK RTC.
So why would i be excited about ODX making a their tests? We already have the best antibody test on the market that will likely make out our capacity if we let it, that we will make a better margin on, and we also have Mologic tests. If you had to bet on whether Mologic or Avacta are more likely to have an approved test, you would have to have the company with proven success at shorter odds, expecially with Gates having just made a $27m grant.
My point is, we have things to be excited about that are being massively undervalued. People do not appreciate what a big deal mologic are.
100% agree MB
ODX are looking to become big. To do that, progressive increase of capacity is paramount. In the long term, that's what they looking to do. AVCT may be a long way away but IF, if they achieve antigen saliva LFT, it will be huge for the UK. Mologic are also in this race to get an antigen saliva LFT. If ODX make room for both tests, the UK will have quick and accurate antigen tests which is what the gov has been crying out for.
ODX is well placed to exploit this situation to make a lot of money and grow as a company, which will also mean a lot of jobs in Scotland too.
How long has it taken ODX to go from 200k to 500k? They haven't even got to 1m yet. These machines and production lines don't sit on supermarket shelves and come with operators. ODX will increase capacity, that is certain in my mind, but im also certain it will be for UK RTC and Mologic tests well before they can offer their services elsewhere.
If you think AVCT test will need that much capacity, why would you not think our Mologic one will? Where we will benefit from having our own branded product?
MB
Lets wait and see. RNS on this would be great.
AVCT and their holders must know is that ODX is at the business end. They;re working on a next gen test which is miles away and if they want a big return , odx is the place to be with mega test all ready to go.
if this is true, who will profits more? ODX or AVCT. SP of both companies?
Max-Power Surely all 3 - pretty pointless to partner if not
We don't know on the basis of the press article what the scale of production they want from ODX will be. If it materialises- I don't disagree that there's an if here- it will be humongous. They will have to make it worth our while- precisely because we already have other established partnerships and associated MOUs. ODX has some power in this context. If the story is true- doesn't look like a 'mistake' to me. It's not speculative. They stated names of 3 out of 4 RTC firms. Seems plausible to me. AVCT have a lot more money behind them than we do that's for sure. There's multi billions on the table now for testing. Hopefully not £100 billion tbh (as a tax payer) but they are obviously signalling it will go up again for some sort of 'Moonshot' plan.
As you say AVCT haven't finished developing the product- 100% specificity is the claim. I don't know enough about the science re whether they can improve on sensitivity but it looks as if our's got better over time.
I am conscious of delays. I was wondering if the government are holding off a big launch until they have 500k capacity moving very quickly to 1-3 million a day. There would be method in this. Wait for the curve to rise to take advantage of new learning on immunity. They seem to be confident of 3-4 months immunity but still wary of whether you can pass it on even if you don't catch it. Sounds nuts but that's clearly implied by the government website. So they want that crystal clear. Then the role for antibody and antigen pocs is set out. Freedom passes here we come.
Anyway we'll have to get orders in soon even to meet 500,000 a day by the end of October.
Let me put this another way.......
If people see so much opportunity with the Avacta Saliva lateral flow test, why do you not also see the same potential with Mologic's lateral flow saliva test?? If Avacta's is trying to grab every spare bit of capacity then same problem for Mologic's. The difference is we will brand Mologic's as out own and make a healthier profit. The other difference is Mologic have a track record of delivering tests.
Abingdon are helping them with the test design aren't they? I'm sure I've read that somewhere.
If AVCT's is better than Mologic's then they will end up becoming the new, new generation test LOL.
If not, then AVCT hit the skids. If Mologic's is better then we're in the right place. If both tests are g8 then we go with the best offer or we produce for both depending on demand. It's win-win MB.
MB - i dont think anyone has said one is better than the other. I think it is an unexpected addition to the stable for Omega, nothing wrong with that. We all seem to be violently agreeing that Omega is well placed whomever produces the tests so lets keep perspective. The current SP was supported pre-the article and will be if the article is not correct. If the article is correct then it can only be better for the company to have an additional channel to ensure profits are maximised.
I suggest we all chill - revert back to the civil board we enjoy - we are all invested in a great company.
MB - i do indeed see potential in the Mologic one - and agree Mologic appear to be slightly ahead. Maybe its a matter of reducing risk by making agreement with both - guess it depends on a number of factors - and results and the ability to get these through the maze of regulation to market. Either way id hope to see some sort of RNS to confirm or deny. But god i hope we see some orders soon for any of our numerous products - this is doing my impatient head in lol
We are chilling Rahrarh. This is a civilised discussion. That's pretty OK when we've invested lots of money ain't it? Exploring the issues. Anyway- I'm over and out for the evening. Feeling v positive indeed. Evening MB- hope you don't feel I'm being rude. Apologies in advance if so.
Jesus Merchant. You need to call your pants.
** calm
We can now talk about ODX on the AVCT bb without getting banned :)
MB make the best of it. Get some avct investors over to odx
The point i am making is why are you getting excited about the potential for something that is nowhere near as beneficial to us as what we already have?
Merchant ,
I think I am. Happy we fill up the orders for up to 2 million per week tests and then odx can boost capacity again up to another 2 million to 4 million .
Just be nice to get a series of rns going
When CK presented the results he preempted the results with the comments that ODX had selected their partners ie they had the choice and he was excited by the range and quality of tests that were coming on-line. Would not surprise me that AVCT want ODX but it is not over the line as we have Mologic and that will be significant anyway.
We are talking about something mentioned in the Yorkshire Post.... with all due respect, I hardly think they are at the forefront of understanding relationships between the diagnostics business and are in receipt of and willing to disclose inside information.