BAMs situation is getting absurd. But with regard to LFD its trite that you cant get a test through without having tech transfer first. You can consult with govmt on design and what you think quality will be etc. and if govmt is convinced enough it can make a conditional contract or take a conditional option for the tests. It may have done so in the case of avacta. Tech transfer is taking its time but still within a reasonable time if it comes in next few weeks.
PL - Sir Al mentioned a potential need of 120m so I am just going off that as the figure the govmt would ideally want as a minimum for LFDs if they were of the right standard. And that if Avacta has a high performing gold standard test the govmt will use it at least near exclusively for LFDs and take up to 120 m or more even once Avacta can supply that. If the govmt are already confident that Avacta has the holy grail test they will also extend a theme that we have already seen with UKRTC of stumping up cash to pay for kit. Or better still for the expensive machines that are a big part of capacity ramping. They will want to smooth the path for companies to want to produce with the necessary speed and volume without any need to delay to analyse commercial risk.
I have just listened to the speech. Han**** refers in general terms to new tech and to tests plural. The buying and ramping up production statement is meant in general terms in the light of this. Naturally different tech / tests will be at different phases. We know Avacta is in the mix because the govmt doc on new tech and tests told us so already. We should actually not read into this statement anything more than this is reconfirmed as a priority for govmt spending and impetus. BAMS validation will come very soon - within two weeks I reckon. Lfd batch may be ready any time from now to early december. But still govmt is likely to have entered into some kind of contract to purchase a great deal - probably 120m a month to start - subject to validation meeting a certain standard.
we should expect to see an rns confirming tech transfer and batch ithin the next few days at most. Otherwise this would have to be another test seemingly being made in uk that they are referring to. If we are not ready for a few weeks its a shame but if we have gold standard tests it will be still quick enough to gain a great number of manufacturers, production and sales.
Personally Timster I dont have great skill as a trader. But I am getting quite good at spotting some golden long term opportunity shares and I am starting to learn to sit on my hands and let time work for me with these. Avacta is my largest holding. I came to the party later than I would have wished so Ive got a healthy return rather than bags. But I have got really comfortable with it as a company. Of the major things they are doing I think that BAMS as best in class is most nailed on along with the broader development of Avacta as a diagnostics solutions provider. And I think on their own these developments will underpin a doubling of the share price within a medium time frame. So I am comfortable with that. The LFD and therapeutics developments are like golden tickets thrown in for free.
RE: Slovakia to test whole population18 Oct 2020 15:49
No its also obviously not us because the batch BBI will produce is 10000 not several million. But it shows the extent to which fast cheap tests could be relied on and how Avacta could really make a differencr globally as well as nationally once manufacturers are in place and ramped.
I take the genera l gist of what you say but actually both the completion of tech transfer and the completion of validation successfully are very relevant for reassuring existing holders and bringing new ones to the fold. They are also significant milestones for encouraging even more manufactuers to the fold. If Avacta rate the opportunity in UK as 120m per month then it is possible that global demand for it could reach a billion a month or even several billion if it is gold standard for an lfd. As a virus that is difficult to contain within borders we need a globally coordinated approach to crushing it which could very well centre heavily on a gold standard lfd if lots of large, medium and small manufactuers of lfds and relevant parts for them are signed up. The sooner they get going the sooner it all gets beaten down. This is all a process though that takes some time and holders should just sit in for a long term ride if they want lifechanging sums and to be part of a company that is going to help solve this global crisis
I am keeping all of my holding until the covid profits are truly baked in to the sp. I am thinking that will take 6-9 months. If BAMs and the LFd are as good as many of us intuit then we will hit 5 or even 10 x by then. At that point its a top slice of maybe a quarter of my holding to diversify. But tbe rest can stay in. I think the mating of the diagnostics div and the therapy side would still have great potential and may see a further 5 to 10 x sp before 2030. Therapeutics takes longer but Avacta are good at getting things going via partnerships and will be able to do a lot themselves if, as Pigster notes, they have a Covid warchest.