The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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Sadly, I have been building my portfolio since the late ‘70’s so have seen strikes, inflation, boom, bust many changes of Government and all the day to day nuance that affect share prices. And I have to admit that every decision I made when I did, was, as far as I could detemine, correct.
Of course, the truth is seldom the reality. I bought shares in complete dogs and dismissed buying shares in others that had stratospheric rises. But, for the most part i got things more right than wrong to the tune of compound growth of 13.5% annually. This year, though I am off nearly 26% so it has written off all the gains of last year.
This article caught my eye as I rwpeaumed dripping money back in to the markets this week. I am not a client of theirs, manage the SIPPs for self, wife and children and small dealing accounts for self alomg with ISAs for children. The only reason I retain some management is because the individual amounts do not trigger the minimum my wealth manager charges for discretionary dealing. That manager has looked after mine and my wifes ISA for the last 15 years.
https://www.devere-group.com/2022-mid-year-outlook-where-do-investors-go-from-here
NWG is, I believe the UK banking equity in the FTSE that has the greatest potential for capital gain whencompared with its peers, Barclays and Lloyds. I used to own shares in HSBC, but for the porfolio in which the NWG shares were purchased, NWG had the edge when compared n a side by side basi.
Hi. Alas_Smith,
Many thanks for the link and your comments below which are really well framed. I also had times in the past where I 'dabbled' with stocks, but to be honest and unlike you, I had more dogs then expected and so I largely came out of the markets. NWG is and remains my only stock interest and largely because I've tied up quite a bit of money in it and like many on this forum, I lost shedloads back in 2008 and slowly built additional positions in the stock over the last 10 years, but to recoup 'everything' I need the stock to get to the £3 mark - it's certainly possible in the coming 12-24 months, although clearly sentiment in particular needs to change.
Now for the not so good news from my perspective and vs the commentary in the link below - unfortunately, I believe the next 6 months will be as bad as the first when it comes to stocks - although bonds I believe will get a bid and start to reverse some of the loss over the last 6 months and of course recent years.
I don't believe stocks have bottomed and I'm sure you'll have read Meta's note to their staff last Thursday, which pretty much stated to 'hold on to your hats' as we're already entering a significant slowdown, which for them also means pulling investment; HR freeze etc etc. So in particular, I believe that the Nasdaq will continue to be hit hard and often when the Nasdaq leads lower, so does the rest of the US stock indices and then of course the rest of the world - I don't believe that stocks will bottom until the end of this year.
The interesting bit for me in the article link was and unless I missed it, they didn't mention a recession 'at all'?? That to me is hugely strange when you have the likes of Meta; Tesla openly stating we're entering a big re-adjustment in the economy and it's THIS fact that I believe will determine how low stocks go int the next 6 months.
Finally and probably no surprise, I absolutely agree with your sentiment for NWB vs Lloyds and Barclays and to state that many others believe the same too, simply look at the current share prices vs their highs they all attained in the last 6 months and we're certainly closest to our high by some margin. We have the best capital; the VAST majority of the loan book, some 90% is 'secured' and when you look at the current buy backs (which will remove c17% of our stock in circulation vs for instance Lloyds, which will only remove c5%) and indeed the levels of divis vs the other two, we certainly NOW are in a different league. If we can stay around the £2.20 - £2.30 mark, which we've largely done in the last few months, whilst the market continues to re-adjust, then think we'll be in a strong position later in the year, when the markets have 'washed out' and start moving upwards again - just my thinking and looking forward to other commentary too
NikeS02, FWIW, I am not worried about the "froth" of markets. Whether they are rising or falling, any day to day change in the share price is reflective of broad sentiment and unless accompanied with REAL news such as mergers/disposals financial update is simply market forces.
Whether we like it or not, the world population is growing and the barrier to entry for any listed business to start is high; for the same business to grow is best made through acquisition. That the Nat West managers in the past made poor decisions requiring a public bail out and a remaining colossal public stake draws a VERY thick bottom line under the market cap for NWG.
The stake owned by HMG is likely to be gradually reduced over the net decade.
I cannot name a do-decade - a 20 year period - (no matter where the start is determined) where the FTSE closes lower than its start. 2022 has been brutal for me and I expect many other investors. it is part of the game. I am expecting 2 inheritances in the next year consequent on the death of close family in the last month. One is likely to be trivial and the other substantive. Seems to me that there is never a good point to invest but always a terrible time to sell.
Currently sitting on 1.5% cash (down from 3%). The smaller inheritance will boost cash to 1.8% and the larger to 40% cash. I have plans to gift some of this directly to my children and the balance to be invested at the discretion of my broker.
This will be my final contribution to this board. Benefit from investment is only made at the point of sale. Good fortune to all but try and leave a little for the next investor.
Alas_Smith - Really sorry you're signing off as you always added to the conversation - you probably won't read this, but just in case you check in later, may I wish you the VERY best for your future