Listen to our latest Investing Matters Podcast episode 'Uncovering opportunities with investment trusts' with The AIC's Richard Stone here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Sold 10k @ 61.2p - holding 200k - just a little kick to see if it’s alive?
Started: lemmink, 7 May 2024 10:09
Last post: george01964, 8 May 2024 17:18
Hybridan released a new research report on NTBR whilst maintaining their forecasts for FY24 and FY25, noting that "Northern Bear is currently trading at P/E of 4.12x for FY24 and 3.98x for FY25 based on our forecast and the market capitalisation on 7 May 2024 based on the post-tender reduced number of shares. We think this remains an attractive level." Based on Hybridan's prior research report from 24 Oct 2023, their DCF "yields a valuation of 117.8p" based on earnings forecasts that are unchanged since that date. It's bizarre that Hybridan would not restate their DCF valuation in each report.
Everywhere you go - always take the weather with you… too hot - too cold - too dry - too wet - amazing how the weather effects trading for most companies…
Rain dampens expectations.
Started: lemmink, 9 Apr 2024 11:53
Last post: lemmink, 9 Apr 2024 11:53
Internet a bit blinky - holding 210k
Bought 10k @ 58.5p - holding 210k
Bought 10k @ 58.5p - holding 210k
Started: lemmink, 26 Mar 2024 13:13
Last post: lemmink, 26 Mar 2024 13:13
RNS mentions new presentation on company website - just flicked through it - Looks like they've made an effort - multi year financials and "employee per subsidiary" breakdowns - good to see. --- NTBR year end is on 31 March
Started: lemmink, 18 Dec 2023 13:53
Last post: lemmink, 18 Dec 2023 13:53
Sold 70k @62p each - holding 200k
Started: 305020, 27 Nov 2023 14:46
Last post: george01964, 13 Dec 2023 15:09
I found JB (former NTBR chairman) on LinkedIn and spoke to him. He's in "no rush to sell" his remaining shares which are now a "small part" of his portfolio and he is "happy to hold them". According to Hybridan, the stock is trading at 4x next year's earnings.
According to Hybridan in their latest research report, “Northern Bear is currently trading at 4.2x P/E multiple based on our forecasted earnings share of 14.5p for FY25, the first full fiscal year following the share buyback” and at 2.6x EV/EBITDA compared to 5.0x EV/EBITDA for the two cited comparable companies, Epwin and Kinovo.
“In summary, we think that the investment case for Northern Bear’s shares is attractive given the limited risks, attractive valuation, and high dividend yield. The majority of Northern Bear’s revenues come from the public-sector including the NHS, councils, and schools. We note that 10-15% of revenues come from new build housing, albeit in the North East and Yorkshire markets which have historically been less volatile than the South East. Most importantly, we think the buyback of up to £3.1m speaks of the management and the Board’s confidence and commitment to the growth of the Group.”
I was also pleasantly surprised to see that the cost of the buyback is £200k rather than the £400k previously reported.
A previous rns said the tender results would be made on 22 nov.
i think it very usual to miss a regulatory driven deadline... i wonder if something more happening behind the scenes - hopefully positive
all imho, dyor and bol
ntbr is in my top5 hldgs
Started: Likeitornot, 15 Nov 2023 14:27
Last post: Likeitornot, 15 Nov 2023 14:27
"The math isn’t complicated: When the share count goes down, your interest in our many businesses goes up. Every small bit helps if repurchases are made at value-accretive prices. Just as surely, when a company overpays for repurchases, the continuing shareholders lose. At such times, gains flow only to the selling shareholders and to the friendly, but expensive, investment banker who recommended the foolish purchases."
Started: 305020, 2 Nov 2023 20:02
Last post: 305020, 2 Nov 2023 20:02
I'm finding this a fascinating situation!
disc: i hold.
i've concluded that the current price is low because the directors are happy to hold their shares and to increase the indebtedness of the company.
they were keen to stress that investors would have info before tendering. i can only assume they have more good news to tell and that they don't want ordinary shareholders tendering as this means the Chair can sell out more of his stake i.e. why leave the over hang.
anyway there is a buyer in the market which i think is interesting as why would one buy now at 60p and 62p when there is likely to be an overhang next month and could prob buy mid to high 50's.
then i wondered if there is any chance of a bid. there is a willing seller of 29% at 62p so an offer of 65p could be sufficient. a larger group would be buying on a very low p/e and that is before the removal of listing costs c.0.5m p.a....
anyways interesting to see where we are in 12mths
Started: Likeitornot, 23 Oct 2023 19:50
Last post: george01964, 31 Oct 2023 17:09
Apologies, total cost rather than the cost of administrative expenses alone! Yes, and I agree they could have undertaken this offer years ago or continued to pay the dividend without pause. I disagree about any concern regarding gearing since net debt would increase to £2-3m, whilst twice the half-year operating income just announced is £3.4m to £3.6m, so future gearing is under 1 time operating income.
I think it’s important to include the 5million or so shares that will be bought at 62p each as a relevant cost of the tender offer - not just the arrangement/ admin fee of £400k - which I find a tad eye watering tbh
The below math is not correct. The buyback offer will cost 2.1p per share (not 18.5p per share) since the £400,000 maximum cost (which seems characteristically over-conservative on the part of the Company) divided by 18,725,276 shares in issue equals 2.1p which seems like a reasonable cost compared to 33% EPS accretion forecast by Hybridan.
The offer will cost approximately 18.5p a share - more than 3 years worth of dividends - interesting!
1:- it might prove that the company could have paid those scrapped dividends as it claimed at the time, thus enhancing the dividend paying track record considerably!
2:- It might restrict the company's ability to pay dividends for a while or risk distressing the balance sheet!
Per the Hybridan research report (one assumes, based upon guidance from management): "We also assume a dividend payout of 5p per share (including a 1p special dividend) declared for FY23 to be made in FY24." 8.8% dividend yield at today's midmarket share price.
Bought 10k @ 58.6 p ish each - holding 270k - currently thinking 62p tender offer is probably worth subscribing to - at least to some degree
Started: Knigel, 12 Sep 2023 12:04
Last post: Likeitornot, 12 Sep 2023 15:24
I have just started looking at them from having no knowledge prior to last couple of weeks. I don't know why they are running with a lot of small companies rather than consolidating these into a singular customer/investor facing brand. Could do with investing in some marketing and design expertise to promote the group a lot better perhaps. They look like a solid outfit but not presented as slick or as professionally as they could be. But what do I know. Invested yesterday as I think underlying looks positive.
Surprised that there has been no trades or market reaction to the good trading update - somehow I think the reaction would have been different for a profits warning!!
Last post: moneybags1, 30 Aug 2023 20:38
Cracking little bottom drawer share!
Reasons not to love this share at its current price...... anyone?
Hybridan further assumes "a dividend of 5.5p for FY24 and 6p for FY25".
Hybridan released another research report today following the results, increasing their DCF valuation to 101.4 (up 2.3p from their 99.1p prior DCF valuation). One of the comparable companies used in their valuation for both reports, Sureserve Group (SUR), was acquired by private equity on 11th July.
Results look ok - in line with previous guidance - half yearly dividends on track to start being paid from mid September
Started: moneybags1, 17 Jul 2023 08:33
Last post: moneybags1, 17 Jul 2023 08:33
Muted response to what to me, Looks like a solid set of results.
Surely, given a bit of time, the SP will creep up to closer to £1
Thanks for adding the research note - I am hoping for a good market reaction when the results are issued on Monday
Hybridan initiated research coverage on Northern Bear this week in a report titled Ready to shine: attractive valuation, high dividend yield and predictable profitability. Below are excerpts from the report.
Our DCF model based on a WACC of 13.31% and a 3% terminal growth rate yields a valuation of 99.1p, an upside of 100%. We believe Northern Bear’s business performance and dividend payouts, coupled with better capital market visibility over time, will gradually drive up its share price.
Northern Bear is currently trading at 0.15x EV/sales, 2.58x EV/EBITDA adjusted and 6.26x P/E multiple based on our FY23 forecasts and the closing share price on 10 July 2023.
Notably, even at our DCF valuation of 99.1p, which is approximately double today’s share price, Northern Bear still would be trading at a discount to the most relevant comparable companies.
[Comparable companies cited in the report include Sureserve (SUR) at 7.2x EBITDA and 14.1x P/E; Water Intelligence (WATR) at 6.6x EBITDA and 15.6x P/E; and HomeServe acquisition recently completed at 17.7x EBITDA. Private equity is active in the specialist building services industry at c.13.9x EBITDA, citing the Lincoln facilities services index.]
Added today ahead of the July results - this share has a yield of 10% (when you include the 1p special dividend). The market will wake up eventually!!
It’s good to see that the new management have come to their senses and switched to a more sensible strategy. Those of you who held on through the dark days should finally get your reward.
Hi Giraffe. I am here too. The wait for this to rise has been almost un-bear-able but seems to be on the right scent for now. It will surely rise again tomorrow as the divi is a monster here. Always a chance of a buyout too.Northern bear is not an investment that will be going south anytime soon!
Bought 10k @ 41.9p - hopefully it is at least a little bit cheap now?
Bought 10k @ 42p - holding 240k
Bought 10k @ 43.5p - holding 230k
Bought 20k @ 44.68 - not very liquid when trying to get a sell quote earlier
Not sure patient is the right word - probably just over attached - Half year results to end sept 2022 seemed quite resilient - annualised EPS still looks like 10p+ - not sure what level of P/E ratio is appropriate for current market and macroeconomic conditions...
You must be very very patient - especially with such a large holding - keep monitoring in case it’s worth adding as only hold a small stake atm - just a feeling we might see movement here shortly as news overdue
Bought 10k @ 51p -- holding 200k
Bought 15k @ 52.4p — holding 190k
Started: lemmink, 29 Jul 2022 16:09
Last post: lemmink, 29 Jul 2022 16:09
mentioned "new provision" in previous post ... I might of kind of made that up a bit ... I was referring to the cost of settling the legal claim ... not actually sure how it was accounted for as didn't pay attention to it ... in any case it will have been a balance sheet hit
Started: lemmink, 29 Jul 2022 16:03
Last post: lemmink, 29 Jul 2022 16:03
A bit vexing - no dividend for the FYE 31/03/2022 - third year on the trot... difficult to but I suppose still possible to excuse.
Underlying EPS 9.8p -- good/ok
masked by big impairment and new provision to leave basic EPS at negative 7.1p -- not so good!!
Book value per share £1.12
Last post: lemmink, 8 Jul 2022 08:59
Legal claim settled for £0.6 million - payable by NTBR ... that's roughly what 1 years worth of normal dividends would cost ... maybe this will mean that a dividend will will not be paid again this year (no dividends have been paid for the last two years) - it will be entered as an exceptional cost in the accounts ending 31/03/2022 reducing profit by circa 3.3p share