Member Info for immerso

You have to replace the stars with t dot me slash 🙄

telegram: *************solidcorelondon

less important, polymetal north america, also with general discussion, formerly mostly concerned with transfer from us brokers: *************polymetalnorthamerica

also less crowded: *************polymetalplc

under number 6 ("view of the company's independent financial adviser with regard to the financial terms of the tender offer and the takeover offer") grant thornton refuses to give a fairness opinion: https://*********************/newsfeed/article/anexo-group-plc-unconditional-recommended-contractual-offer-2929307

they state: "grant thornton does not consider the financial terms of the tender offer to be fair and reasonable."

regarding the pik loan notes & the consideration shares, they state that tey are unable to advise. but if the tender offer isn't fair & reasonable, how could that hold true for the loan notes or the consideration shares?

has it ever happened, that a fairness opinion was refused? what are the consequences?

Regarding c), it is even worse: According to Grant Thornton, these shares:

"... (c) will only carry pre-emption rights on new issues of securities by Midco if any such issue is for cash, and such rights will be subject to other important exceptions presenting a risk of significant dilution and reduction; and (d) their future value will be uncertain as any exit will be reliant on either one or both of the Joint Bidders exiting (either by ceasing to control directly or indirectly control Topco or Topco and its affiliates ceasing to control Midco)."

No ones cares, you don't have to notify about every trade and you especially don't have to create a new thread for each one.

... and no one seems to care?

It's only 10.1p regular dividend + 2.9p special, due to the dividend policy of a 70% payout.

But they amended that to a payout of 70% to max. 80% from 2025.

Together with the share buyback program of excactly 2p, it's a shareholder yield of 15p or 11.5%.

Even with 13p, they were able to hold the post-dividend solvency capital ratio of 171% at previous year's level (target range: 140-160%), so it doesn't seem wild to expect that to be sustainable.

With the reduced number of shares after last years large buyback, the number of shares going forward will be lower than the average number of shares with which the earnings per share were calculated in the report. If we further adjust for the cost of carrying out the buyback offer, WE arrive at 13.4p per share with the earnings from last year. That's a P/E of less than 4!

Even construction companies usually have a higher P/E-ratio. I know, Northern Bear always had a low valuation, maybe also due to illiquidity, but this seems at least cheap enough.

"What sort of person quotes Howard Marks?"

Well, probably not the ones who usually write in junior mining stock chat boards? ;-)

I suppose you are confusing the American investor with the Welsh drug dealer of the same name? I only heard of the latter when I read it up on the German wikipedia, which shamefully only knows him and not the other.

PS. Atari now trades at 10 Cent. Most of recommendations are down compared to the date of the report, although not all and I agree that there actually are some interesting cases, like Condor. He once managed a fund with a negative performance over ten years or so (UP Centurion), that was eventually wound down. It's one thing to write about stocks and another to be a successful investor. He is clearly overrated as far as I can tell. He's good at finding odd stocks or special situations, but he has no superior knowledge beyond that.

The fact that there's always something that can happen is a part of the game! And regarding his self-admitted weakness of being early, which he clearly was with Condor, as famous Howard Marks put it: "Being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong."

There's no way to speak of an exceptional success rate of Undervalued Shares. Quite the opposite is true, it's rather mundane. But at the same time he obviously has solvent followers who drive prices. Now that is for sure. People love to read about exciting stories.

The prove that he is able to move prices: Just look at what he did yesterday to Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP). I am not a lifetime subscriber, but I know the company and the situation and again, it's clear that the London listed Iraqi oil producer is GKP and not DNO. This is a £300m stock, 10x of what CNR was, that moved +8% in one day. Quite impressive.

A year ago, €83m mcap Atari jumped +26% to 24 Cents after his report, after the shares had been stuck at 19 Cent due to an ongoing tender offer.

Condor WAS an interesting case, but I think after a rallye of +2/3 from 15 to 25p, most of easy money has been made.

If you apply the bid for Shanta to Condor, we would end up at $47m, or £37m for La India. I have no clue what the rest is worth, I just took the $500m NPV from Shanta's presentations, adjusted the discount rate and the given gold price from the fs, and then applied the relation of the bid price vs. the stated NPV. Today's market cap is 38% above that.

I know it's East Africa vs. Nicaragua, but Shanta has two already producing gold mines.

What discount rate do you think is realistic? The 5% from the feasibility study are obviously ridiculous.

No, it's solely Swen Lorenz and his followers, of whom I know some. Have a look at January 2021.

In 2004, that was before he launched undervalued shares, I think it was in July or August, he pushed the Falkland Island holdings (FIH), a AIM listed microcap, from ~300 pence to over 700p over a story about oil reserves which never materialised. Today it trades at 200p (£27m mcap). The shares were listed in Frankfurt on 6th July 2004, what a coincidence.

Or Societe de Bains de Mer (SBM) in 2004. And that was a several hundred million Euro company at that time! His report dates from 28/04/2004 and the stock made +20% on the following day, from 22,50 to 27€.

Don't underestimate that guy.

As I wrote, on 17/01/2021. That was a sunday. The price soared +38%. Please look up the volume for your own.

It's not only that back then, there have probably been less subscribers than today, but also that at that time only the pro+ subscribers could read it. There was no chance to guess the company. Now this was possible because in the meantime, the stock was mentioned in the free newsletter.

Condor Gold is not namely mentioned in the market letter I refered to, but I figured it out, that it definitively is this stock he previously wrote about. I first thought it to be Shanta Gold, where the case seems to be similar. They also have rejected take over offers.

He just writes that he is convinced that a take over offer will be made within the first quarter and that it could lead to 50-100% upside (compared to 15p). For the rest you have to buy the pro subscription.

I don't think the author really knows more than we all do. Of course it is likely that an offer will come within the next quarter, and chances are that the price is favourable, although the offer for cancellation of the subscription does not seem to depend on a favourable offer price. ;-)

I'm not saying there are sinister motives or something like that. I'm also not saying he's wrong. He probably isn't, although his offer does not depend on a favourable price, just on an offer being made.

How more aggressive could it be than writing that he is so confident that he does not have to issue any reimbursements? It's no wonder the shares are soaring and it's obvious that the readers drove the price up, and I think it will probably come down again, as it did in 2021. That's all I meant to say.

I find the newsletter interesting, otherwise I would not be a subscriber, but rather due to occasional odd findings and detailed reports than because he has superior knowledge. I doubt he knows more than the participants of this share chat, and by the way I also doubt that his analyses in total create any premium return if blindly followed.

There has been volume on German trading venues where there practically has not been any volume ever before. It was 150.000 shares at LS Exchange, 80.000 in Stuttgart, 46.000 in Frankfurt and the 20.000 on gettex. (There are some other regional exchanges in Germany, where Condor is also listed)

The spreads there aren't usually as good as directly on the AIM. Maybe not all German retail investors can buy there, but many can.

The definitive proof is indeed that it has started on the TSE yesterday evening. The mail was out before 7pm CET, when the TSE was still open. Same as by the way for US OTC.

I don't have a link, because it was sent via e-mail and the report is only accessible to subscribers.

It's surely not yesterday's news about the capital raise, nor a leak or insider buying.

The reason for today's move is most probably that an exclusive German market letter aggressively pumped this stock yesterday evening via e-mail to all free subscribers. If there will no bid for the company in the first quarter of 2024, you can cancel the premium subscription and claim your money back.

The stock was first recommended on the weekend of 17th January 2021. Look at the price (+38% within 2 days) and the volume. Two weeks later, the price was back where it was before.

"But it does signal that this is not just someone having a bit of a pump and generating some interest. "

Yes, it is, namely a German market letter aggressively pumping the stock.