focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Hope you are right. One company in redress. FCA concerned about other 2 and looking. 3 companies in redress spells BUST! Questions about covenant breaches, refinance only if FCA are happy. Teetering!!
The FCA would be very irresponsible to be the cause of companies in this sector going bust. Remember these firms are the final option for people before using illegal and dangerous loan sharks. The companies have to charge high rates to compensate for the risks of people pretending not to be in or spending their repayment on narcotics, it all happens. The FCA know this but have to be seen to be defending the consumer. However they know what a vital role is played by NSF and Amigo. I don’t believe Amigo will go bust, although there is a fair chance. NSF is definitely not going bust, they have a supported recapitalisation. What that means for PI’s is a different issue but they’re not going bust.
I see it as a race. Things look neck and neck at the moment with Amigo. They are both going but which one will fall over the cliff edge first
IMO, the important new information that came in today's RNS was the amount they want to raise. Until now they have talked about a 'substantial' raise. I had reckoned on that being in the £40-£50m range. But they want to raise a lot more than that, and it's taken the market by surprise.
On the positive side, it seems very unlikely that NSF will go bust.
Nothing makes sense here. MM are not pricing this share correctly, but well, look one of the MMs is Peel Hunt who have been advising Alchemy in CWD. With CWD share issue also was not necessary if you read their archival message boards.
For uninitiated, like me, how is it possible to raise £80m against a co with a mcap of £13m and if so how do you set the price/share. Most equity raising is at a discount to the sp. I genuinely can't make sense of the BoDs announcement.
one more post on this very negative day caused by badly written update,
IPF update today lifted their sp to the pre-covid days.
Our results in 2 weeks must be good as we are operating, lending (in 80% vs 2019), collecting, repaying own debts on time etc.
Exactly.
Regarding share price kept artificially low, wuestion for FCA to answer:
should the private shareholder (N.Utley) in the market maker (Peel Hunt) be allowed to keep shares in a company where Peel Hunt is an active MM?
And they are not a AIM listed company ;-)
PS, I meant to say 80 million fund raise not 83, still an odd number tho
Like most of these AIM listed companies, RNS’s never tell the shareholders the true story
For example where did the need to raise 83 million came from , why such an odd number?
Also with the loan book of 300 million and going well with growth in lending why the need to raise such odd amount?
Remember that Amgo will return with SOA2 and hopefully that would get approved by the FCA and hence the court, so why not wait for that outcome before telling the market they are going to raise capital in 3-4 months time? Why not let the business of lending to pick up as monies collected can be relent so with the cash in hand and monies coming in they can easily keep the business going until the Amigo can get FCA approval and then NSF would be in the same boat and they will know what to do and how much it would cost
Today RNS was very badly prepared, instead of the good news about lending picking up they spoiled it by slipping in the fund raise
Sometimes I wonder about the management of these companies, their untimely RNS has caused 18% drop on most under valued SP in the sector and this could have been handled better
Mcap 13m now.
Cash £78m per last update
Unused £200m credit line facility
In August 2015, NSF acquired "Loans at Home" for £82.5m.
In December 2015, NSF acquired Everyday Loans for £235m.
In 2017 NSF acquired George Banco for £53.5 million.
So as the business is profitable since October 2020, easy to say that they have 80m cash now.
Say will spend 20m on redress. This will leave them with 60m cash.
Hard to believe that extra 80m is required to unlock the unused 200m facility. Don't know (yet) why do they go for that high amount??
Business is expanding as they been hiring more managers over the last weeks.
Worth to mention today's update totally shadowed by the share issue to come in Q3:
"Since the trading update on 23 February 2021, the Group has seen a steady build of month-on-month growth in lending at branch-based lending and home credit which, combined with historically low rates of impairment, has meant that net receivables at both businesses are now returning to growth. In guarantor loans, net receivables have more than halved since their peak in March 2020 as a result of minimal lending, good collections and the write-off of COVID-impaired customer balances in the 2020 financial year."
Tbh redress is not my main concern but low share price kept by PH and others.
BoD estimated Guarantor Divi redress at 16m. GL divi is not the big one here and the upheld rates were low.
Question: why share price is maintained so low for the last months.
Answer: Peel hunt works for Alchemy
Question: will we see another party interested in bidding for the company?
Answer: 13m mcap is a bargain so who knows , who knows
Question: as they have 80m cash, why so much extra cash needed
Answer: Alchemy wants it same way as in Countrywide plc
Should it be a chiken run for us now and just looking at sp falling of a cliff
HeresHopin, now can see that. makes sense. Thanks for clarifying. So the delay tactics work for them big time.
Imagine headlines in a few months: NSF with loan book 200m and 80m cash sold for 10m.
Sp continues to drop now 4.36
they will take no less than 21% in the open offer. Regardless the open offer price will be, the remaining shares legally must be purchased by them for no less than 8p.
So Alchemy need to go n buy another 21% stack to eventually make a bid for nsf purchase
Alchemy owns 29% of NSF, so any purchase will force them to make the bid for the company. They want open offer so they want to buy as many shares as it will be possible leaving not a lot for PI's. This is really a very similar story to Countrywide which happened approx 12 months ago there. Only difference is that in Countrywide they had less shares than here.
Well i ll be happy with that, now patience is required
"Requirement for a mandatory offer: Where a bidder is interested in shares carrying 30% or more of the target’s voting share rights, the bidder must make a mandatory offer in cash at no less than the highest price paid during the preceding 12 months (often referred to as a "Rule 9 offer"). Mandatory offers can only be conditional on the bidder receiving acceptances that, together with any shares already held or acquired during the offer, would give the bidder and its concert parties more than 50% of the voting rights. As such, bidders cannot rely on other conditions to protect themselves."
https://www.burges-salmon.com/news-and-insight/publications/guide-to-public-takeovers-in-the-uk/
"Alchemy's offer also provides Countrywide's shareholders the opportunity to sell their shares or to participate alongside Alchemy in the recapitalization."
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/alchemy-partners-revises-countrywide-offer-61604952
Is true is that the remaining shares need to be bought at no less than 12 months high, then I would expect an offer for my shares at no less than 8p per share.
So it does look nasty for pis