The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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Adz shorts is sometimes what kills people's business, puts people out of jobs and damages the industry, think about that, so don't rant on about shorts does us all a favour, tell that to the people loosing money, kobs and lives be abuse of a MW article!
It doesn’t matter if it takes a step back before results and report are released once both of those events have happened then and only then will we know if this was a good investment or not. In between now and then everyone ( including myself ) is guessing!
Thanks Adzy re GPN...How long have you been invested there.? looks to be on a meteoric rise...normally I avoid these, thinking the profits have already been made..
Also it's on NYSE and I can't access those shares within my Sipp which is my sole investment vehicle... Is there a way which doesn't involve having to work through a broker...? Also the vast amount of my money is in older established unit trusts like Fundsmith and Lindsell Global, whose track records is there to see and consistent too...
I agree with your choice of Ferrexpo by the way..their financials are excellent, operations very simple and they hold strong position , and they have low cost base...their share will double within next 5 years , probably 3 if they can get their corruption allegations dealt with...a bit high risk though , and I already have one of them ..
CB1234 , I agree totally about the issue being thus far about how billionaires manage their finances.. I have yet to see how this affects the financials....one MW report and Chinese whispers begin and grow at a rampant rate...I deal in evidence , not fifth hand hearsay ..like you though, I am reserving judgement until we know the truth..
Debt is a real concern and how they deal with it....the obvious route would be to cease further expansion , suspend dividends, repay debt, wait for share price to re-rate , then issue further equity to catch up with the historic rates of expansion, without diluting EPS and continue further acquisitions and strategic alliances and partnerships to grow the footprint in existing regions outside the Gulf..
Yes Mark...you are right there...the long and short of it, is that we won't know until we know, so to speak, if this has indeed been a good investment, and any assertions made before then, are based on pure speculation..
This was a inside job. They knew the shares were held as collateral. Shorters need shares to buy back. They started shorting in june. Sent a file to muddy waters in dec. To cause full on damage. Shares hit margin calls. Banks sell shares to cover their loans. Shorters buy them shares back. Jobs a good un. If the business is overall sound shares will re-rate back to at least 50% of previous highs. 4000p/2 = 2000p. But the cycle of evil takes around 18 months. Looking at other targets in past where the eventual busines is sound takes around 12-18 months to recover.
If they couldn't close their shorts we woulda had a short squeeze back to 2000p in no time. But them shares being sold off by the banks provided the shares they needed. Now all we got is a business trying to prove its done sweet f all wrong ppl trying to get in cheaper ppl like me hoping for a quick recovery ppl thinking when and if this is a bargain..... and if $300 million profit is coming we needn't worry about debt. If they manage to pay of a $90 million bond when not due I think they are ok for money.
My fear is the major shareholders have raised debt for the company , using their own shares as collateral, keeping debt off the balance sheet, bit like a rights issue butwithout informing the market. Not sure how that would unravel or if there is any evidence for it - but it does seem a bit murky if not muddy.
Mate they just used their shares and lived it up. Think about it I got 100k in here. Its useles to me until I sell and get my measly dividends I dont want to sell as they are going up. So i give them to the bank and say give me 100k... I go spend my 100k enjoy life.. now my shares are worth 200k. So bank says here have another 100k go take another wife buy a Ferrari. And so on it goes until the shares start falling.
These guys had millions tied up in nmc. They figured out a way to enjoy life and not sell their shares. What they forgot is the market knows how to kill you off. They were stupid enough to have done that or the shorters would never been able to close.
Taverham good points.
Gary you will be buying these back in the 900p.
And I have a feeling might be tomorrow after freeh report.