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PIs seem to be getting worked up into a state
Let's be clear...Settlement has been achieved. Legal costs to Illumina @ £1M. Legal war chest exists, royalties war chest exists and payments exist have already been made
Do they have to be reported within 6 months of the YE date or would reporting before market opens On Monday also satisfy the market requirements? Haven’t checked rule on this but suspect it is former and as 1 October is Monday and there can’t be a Sat or Sun RNS then it has to be today at some point otherwise they are in breach of market requirements and trading in their shares will be suspended?
A little bit sus this... Another cash call?
Every time they seem to report at the last possible minute, they need to sort this out if they are to be taken seriously
For a top up !
Looks like it may be an after hours announcement
Pretty low volumes today, so seems unlikely that the drop is driven by anything leaking ahead of the results.
Notaflipper - my P/E musings are simply based on dividing the profit figures I quoted by the number of shares in issue (387m or 475m fully diluted) to provide the respective earnings per share uplift that this would represent and then multiplying by 30 (assuming a P/E ratio of 30). I've done this on the basis of uplift in value rather than absolute value, as a bit of a ready reckoner, but the same calc would apply to the absolute numbers. So, if we made profit of £1m, then that would equate to earnings per share of 0.25p (undiluted), which multiplied by 30 gives an SP of 7.75p. Every additional £1m would add a further 7.75p to that number (which is the same as £1.3m adding 10p in my previous calculation), so £2m = 15.5p; £3m = 23.25p; £4m = 31p etc.
Assuming we did actually break even last year, I'm not expecting much actual profit in the finals (break even may not translate into a clear statutory profit for technical accounting reasons), but the important thing for me is what the forward position looks like, as our fixed costs are clearly now covered, so each additional sale adds more to the bottom line than previously, which should lead to accelerating profit growth. I would hope that we would be aiming for profit of £10m+ over the medium term (2-3 years) which would equate to an SP of 77.5p. That would still only value the company at £300m, which is some way below the £500m that others on here have quoted as a possible value in the next two years and doesn't allow for future products that we know are under development.
The key things I'm looking for (tomorrow) are:
- The latest baseline profit position from the finals
- Greater transparency about the value of contracts secured to date (which has been increasingly opaque as the litigation has progressed - I've had a definite sense that Premiatha have been playing their cards close to their chest to protect their clients from being drawn into the litigation).
- The implied rate of organic growth for the enlarged group following the acquisition of Yourgene
- Any published forward looking revenue and profit numbers (we may need the Hardman or another broker's report for those).
As ever with NIPT, we can probably expect some surprises, but I really hope that this marks a return to a more transparent agenda, centred on rebuilding confidence in the Board's ability to reward the patience of shareholders.
Can't say I have ever been ( or can't remember) being affected with an after hours Rns, just seems Fridays are a no no!
Bakky you are behind the times mate it's after hours RNS you have to beware of not Friday RNS
14.25p close tomorrow ... anyone else taking a guess?
It did not tell the right story on settlement RNS because we got a well deserved boost.
Defo leakage ... stinks ...welcome to Aim ...yee hah!
Pretty obvious now that somebody knows something. Be prepared for a disappointment in the results. The SP always tells you a story.
PAYDAY Agree entirely, the same happened day before settlement RNS, share went down 2.5p.
They want your shares, carefull with stop loses!
getting a bit spooked about the results it seems..Whatever for? lol
There was a background transfer of shares around the 10p mark and now there's a backroom transfer happening at the 13p.
Those who held their nerve and patience took benefit loading up at the 10p stalling point. Hopefully history will repeat itself but we may yet still see more largish trades this afternoon and a further Holdings RNS tomorrow.
Has to be done I am afraid: - https://i.pinimg.com/originals/af/d1/41/afd1417cf418b12945d2ac8ebc4f7b11.jpg
I leave it to the BB to decide who the other character is on the BB.
Another nerve-racking day. Hopefully good news tomorrow
It does feel strange that we're stuck in this range given that the elephant has left the room ...
Some decent forward looking numbers are all that we need to be set free? Run elephant Run!!
'It's Friday so there's a chance it will make it into the sunday papers' ...hopefully for the right reasons!!
It's Friday so there's a chance it will make it into the sunday papers ....
If I say it confidently enough, I can almost believe it myself
Nothing new, considering they have always left it to the very last day of legal reporting times (even ViY) , then I suppose it was always going to be Friday.
Don't like Friday news, usually bad in my experience! Hopefully Tomorrow will buck the trend.
Whatever that means...
Arms raised. I concede.
Shame that the new CEO has not changed the quality of communication and reporting behaviours yet but it all depends on the message.
Twix you seems to be on a bit of a roll. Took you, and us, a few years but we have to admit it now. Why don't you rise to bakky's challenge on the results given that you're on a roll?
I suspect (a) operational breakeven confirmed or good as, (b) sales to double in 2019YE and again in 2020YE (c) further organisational restructuring. Progress on new product development will be referred to but suspect will come at another time. What about you?
I am reserving my right to press the refresh button for the MIA RNS for the rest of the day whilst slowly banging my head.
Arms folded
You know it doesn't count if it's not a result of guesswork :-I
Not looking likely today huh :-)