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Not a chance!
Just curious, anyone here planning on selling tomorrow?
Let's wait and see. But think we are all going to be very dissapointed tomorrow morning.
Wolf, playing the man not the ball isn't particularly good form. The fact you felt the need to leap in as you did speaks volumes.
As much as I would like to argue with people on an individual basis here all day, I would rather the shorters have as much time as possible to contemplate how they are going to dig themselves out of their respective holes tomorrow.
The sp was tanking on Fri, and already had been on Thursday. Friday.s sp tumble then reversed to coincide wuth Reynolds telling Fincap to do one. The results were unknown in general at that point , to the public and some privileged ii.s- more than likely existing ones too, who didnt want to see their holdings plummet in value. The question remains is to how the general mkt will react - it seemed to recover very well, to where it ended up but Mon will be interesting ie more info for all, but placing now done at 10p. If they coukd have got more, why didnt they? The bod, whilst putting their hands into their pockets, only the £700k guy really pushed the boat out ... the others ...they tried. The ii.s have hardly dipped into their pocket ...especially if say 5ii.s eg were involved. I still think we.ll tend to 10p on Monday, especially if the new ii.s dont flip when they are able. If the buckets are short, tough luck ...we.ll see. Clean slate for nipt now, no excuses, just time lags in sales on Illuma to ponder. It must feel like the early unhindered, halcyon days are back. Sales teams - do your stuff. New products? Fo we row back or push on ? Time is of the essence ...competition is fierce ... gla.
I am not sure why an investor since 2015 could not see the reward opportunity here in the short/medium term. In 2015 the market capitalisation was circa £60m when the sp was over 30p. This was with sales of only £2m. With the current sales forecast to be over £10m once the Indian contracts kick-in this coming quarter, greater current geographical footprint, end of litigation woes, increased strategic support the company is in a much better footing today than in 2015. What's more WE ALREADY know that further corporate news is coming whether it be new products etc. which was already alluded to in TW's previous bearcast and other BB sources.
So there was a bit of throwing the kitchen sink in the trading update and getting all the possible bad news out there and starting afresh. It is therefore more likely than not that now the there will be good news following to confirm that the company under a new CEO is on a new path and the historic commercial head-winds and litigation expense and distraction is behind them.
That there was a bit of throwing the kitchen sink in the has already been reflected in the sp drop. The current sp is below that when the settlement with Illumina was announced. What's more the company has now £5.5 million in equity. Commercial concerns and risks which neutered any settlement spike have been addressed (e.g. TMO support, Illumina test development costs and inventory) .
There were many positives; (a) Revenues increased by 100%; (b) Like for like sales growth was 37%; (c) Gross profit increased by 250% to £3.17m. The major issue as I see it is that operating loss before litigation expenses reduced by 18% to £5.91 million due to litigation expenses admin expenses increased to £11.8m. But again this has already been reflected in sp drop.
And I DO NOT think 6% share dilution is that much of an issue if test volumes were to go to 70k to 100k test volume. Then a TO in the next year is very likely and well above 30p as this is significant volume. As before you are only a TO target because of your test volume as that leads to sequencer sales. You are not a target because break-even is achieved.
Some of these posts are somewhat overly emotional focusing on the RNS release date/time and the placing. An after hour RNS is not great but if you believe the background story explainable and ACTUALLY makes the BoD look good. They stepped in and secured the sp price the impact though is that the RNS was late and could not be reflected in figures. We know unofficially though that placing is now complete (and was oversubscribed) so the cash in bank figures are actually already better and no issue for demand at further funding at higher levels with lower dilution.
The placing size of 6% is small for potential TO over 30p so "get over it". This ultimately is an AIM company 4 years old which is now got strategic support from both TMO + Illumina, no litigation drag, global footprint with new product launch coming and further cor
Wolf, did you read any of the other messages? I guess we can’t prove it, but it appears fincap screwed up the placing and came back the 7p .. Reynalds then got it sorted at 10p which presumably caused the delay.
I’m not convinced many will be rushing to sell - and maybe if there was some forward short selling, there’ll be a few tricks to try to cover ...
Another damn day hitting F5 !!!
Not me Andyken. Have been invested since 2015 and painful to see what has happened to the ahare price over the last 3 years. Complete contempt from the board reporting so late in the day on Friday with such a poor update. Don't know why nomads recommend this as it's always punished on a Monday morning. Read your contributions over the past few weeks and clear to see you are one of TW's deluded groupies
Interesting Twix, TW answers a few questions.
Got to say back in January I was very much against the idea of a takeover, however, the situation now is quite different. The settlement cleared the road to revisiting every borderline potential, litigation hindered contract that didn't quite bring in the bacon. It also opens the door to all lucrative areas avoided because of patent infringement liabilities. From this, a whole new market place has opened providing over the next year an immense new revenue stream. Without doubt,any interested party would view these changes as crucial factors in terms of value, and potential.
I have been told that agreeing with flipper twice in 3 days could cause an embolism, but I'll risk it. Yes, a takeover is now definitely on the cards.
When I had "The List" back in the VIY days, part of the criterion required to get yourself on the list was anyone who used the "going concern" card as a means to deramp the company. Even then, all those years ago everyone new that every company was obliged to provide a going concern passage in the final or inerim results as a protection to the public. I'm pretty sure we don't need a list now, we are all big boys here and besides, we all know who's playing the card.
Healthy days ahead as far as I can see. GLA
Post year end sales have continued to surge – in the first half of this year ( ie the six months to 30 September, they will be 40% ahead at £3.8 million and the settlement with Illumina should add to that rate of growth. Thus while the company will report a small – but funded – loss for this year to March 31 next year it will report a profit at a group level of, quite possibly, seven figures. The year after I’d be looking for up to £4 million with £7 million or more on the cards the year after. The company flags that it may need more working capital as it expands but if it is profitable as it will be that does not need to come in the form of equity. A business capable of generating a pre and post tax profit of £7 million by the year to 31 March 2022 should not be valued at £39 million as it is today ( post new shares and at 10p). The surge at top and bottom lines implies a forward PE in the mid-teens. Discounting back at 10% per annum that suggests a 6 month price target of c£85 million or 21.6p. Maybe the rating given to such growth once the business is profitable will be even higher. This placing feels like a kick in the gonads. Well it is. Finncap deserve a collective knee-capping. Not only are they a firm staffed by sanctimonious and conceited knob-heads but they are useless at the job they are vastly overpaid to do. My only hope, given how Finncap has screwed up this placing, is that some of the bucket shops it tapped up forward sold, i.e. engaged in wholesale insider dealing, and will not now get stock and will be forced to close
Tom Winnifrith writes: We ordinary shareholders in Premaitha (LSE:NIPT) have suffered for many years and shown enormous loyalty. News released well after the market close of a £2.5 million placing at 10p might thus seem like a kick in the teeth by a management treating us with contempt. I am afraid the story is far worse. The company says it is a bookbuild. Fear not it has been done and settled. Here is what happened and why. The cash will be used to buy up Illumina inventory as part of the settlement announced ;llast week. So it is a working capital issue nothing else. Premaitha knew it would need the cash two weeks ago and approached broker FinnCap to raise the cash. The shares were then over 12p and subsequently hit 15p after the Illumina deal with Finncap on the road and promising that a fund raise would be easy. On Tuesday night this week the Finncap knobheads said they could get it done at just 7p having trawled the bucket shops at the bottom end of AIM. Premaitha chairman Adam Reynolds had a fit and it is he who has raised the cash (on Thursday and today) with firm holders and no bucket shops involved. The share price slide back to 11.9p before Reynolds was able to take control was a result of the interaction between FinnCap and the bucket shops who will not now be involved in this issue. That FinnCap thinks going to bucket shops, giving shares away at a massive discount and charging 5% is a fair way to treat corporate clients is just another sign that it is institutionally useless and run by A Grade ******s. Its efforts of the past week have seriously fecked the share price but as long as it got its 5% commission and gets its £3,500 pcm retainer does it care? It is this sort of behaviour which gives the City such a bad name. Why did Finncap not suggest that we ordinary shareholders get to participate via Primary Bid? Because we are smelly little people, plebs and it doesn’t give a flying feck about our interests. It is not as if we will meet them at the Polo tomorrow is it? Or as if we will be picking our kids up from the same school gates as these City slackers. Results for the year to March 31 2018 were well flagged. Revenues increased by 100% to £6.15 million, including the first full year of contribution from Yourgene Bioscience, which was acquired in March 2017. Like for like sales growth was 37%. Gross profit increased by 250% to £3.17 million and the gross margin improved by 10 points to 52% thanks to benefits of scale, geographic mix and reduced product costs. But thanks in part to litigation expenses admin expenses surged to £11.8 million although the operating loss before litigation expenses reduced by 18% to £5.91 million. Cash at the year end was just £280,000 but since May and including today the company has raised £5.5 million in equity. Post year end sales have continued to surge – in the first half of this year ( ie the six months to 30 September,
Lots of new names on the bulletin boards with very negative comments suddenly proclaiming themselves as experts.
I hope they are naked shorters ****t1ng themselves this weekend about a possible short squeeze next week.
Agree entirely notaflippa - there is also now nothing stopping a takeover offer at any point and the company is only going to get more expensive from that perspective, so why wouldn’t it happen sooner rather than later?
For many LTHs who were expecting a spike after the settlement I am sure the last 2 weeks have been surreal and the last 24hrs painful. We were expecting break-even it having been stated as a priority last December, this has not happened. We further didn't deserve an after-hours RNS. However in some of the dramatic melee of the BB commentary we need to keep perspective.
The share dilution which is not great is 6% vs the 60m shares that were issued in May. Then the share price was 7p+ and the shares were issued at 4.5p. Thereafter the sp did not fall to the placing price but rose. The Directors have taken part with £800k of their own money and we're told unofficially the placing will be confirmed complete on Monday. I also agree that the same investors will probably be also lined up for future tranches. For many new tech companies funding calls are not uncommon (just look at Tesla, Facebook etc.) as they key for them is test volumes. This is what will generate a TO offer as the sequencer market is tenfold the price of NIPT which is also the reason for the litigation woes.
Strategically the company has now the support of both Illumina and TMO. We bought into this company because we recognised it was a takeover target. This has now increased since the settlement with more than 1 potential buyer and more options in how to sell the company in two. If you just used the 1st half trading results then it is expected that test volumes this year will be over 70k and sales will be circa £10m vs a market capitalisation of £45m. The concerns over costs to develop the Illumina based test have now been addressed with the placing. Payments to Illumina have already been budgeted for <£1m and royalty payments will only kick-in after test launched in 2020. Yes there will be another placing but the size of this is already known and who genuinely doesn't think that this will not be done at a higher price nor that there will be news flow beforehand.
Wonder if Steven Myers has subscribed for even more as its been said AR ended up going to his mates.
these guys like to spend money.
After a year of including Yourgene, the £1.9million increase in gross profits was wiped out by the £1.9million increase in Admin expenses.
yes Twix agreed. Also why would new investors get onboard if they thought things were that bad, with also knowing that further funding was needed.They will proabably also take part when more funds are needed as apparently there are now more interested investors now the legal situation is sorted.
Placing well over subscribed..... SP up....... looking forward to 20-25p by Xmas.
Have to wonder why the directors wanted to take part with significant subscription when the future is sooooo bad. Probably because with litigation over and new broom laying the groundwork for his tenure after a choppy aftermath the news will propel us back to 15p+ this year
bump
It could be choppy, but with news that I expect is lined up it will be just one more bumo in the road that gets left behind along with those in the D&VSDI (derampers and Vendetta.......)
Yes, plus results which were plainly worse than expected with increased losses plus an unexpected placing (well I say unexpected, unexpected by most here) plus company debts trebled in a year. No problem they say. Mr Market sadly will not concur.
Indeed. Anyone who thinks anything good follows an out of hours trading update on a Friday evening needs their heads examining
We’ve hit new all time highs in the SDI (Self Delusion Index) and BCBI (Bullish Confirmation Bias Index) today.
The Indices are expected to continue climbing during this weekend until about 7.55am on Monday morning.