Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Hi Fred. See what gets said tomorrow. A fair few buys going through this afternoon. Hmmm, wonder if that’s just speculative buying or someone in the know.
Hi Wigan...trust you are well.
Totally agree with your sentiments..sp held up well. No Booths nr me, Sale nearest, although use the one in Keswick when up there...shall look out for products ! A good Ramadan, followed by hot summer and everyone back out could well turn this around.
Shall keep eye out for updates...Fred
I have noticed "Feel Good" drinks appearing on the shelves of Booths Supermarkets, along with Vimto frozen ice lollies. Also, Booths seem to be selling a fair amount of the "remix" flavours and give a fair amount of shelf space to them. Plus, the Vimto flavoured water seems to be going well in the "meal deal" section.
Also, noted that Octopus has increased their shareholding from ~ 7% to ~ 8%.
All good at the mo. Hopefully Ramadan sales went well, and we should get a decent trading update at the AGM in a couple of weeks. I expect that we should be comfortably back to around £15 - £16 after the half year results.
HI Fred,
Yeah, I believe that NICL will gradually recover to £15 - £17 range by the time the half year results due , late summer.
Kind regards
end of day tickup....
yes, could be interesting !! Like you say, maybe a divi as a sweetener, as the sp may see folk offloading. We shall see..stay safe.
Still hanging ... Let's see what gets said next week re 2020 results. Interesting to see what they announce re dividend. I suspect they will make up some of the lost dividend from last year, as there is no issue with cash.
Personally, I would like management to review the OoH business. It ties up working capital, and is frequently subject to goodwill write downs. One wonders if this piecemeal acquisition of minor brands and / or distribution infrastructure is paying off. Not clear to me (of course I'm not privy to the Board's strategy), but have they been buying minor brands to acquire distribution infrastructure and build OoH operations. Or are they buying minor brands with a view to growing them, then rationalising the acquired operations infrastructure and taking write downs. Seems that a strategy review might help. Either a restructuring of OoH operations to improve efficiency and return on capital, or offload OoH and focus on developing the base Vimto offering and brand management. Be interesting to see a detailed breakdown of volumes by brand in OoH channel, verses capital tied up.
New target of 15.50 advised..............hang in there !!
HI Fred
Hopefully this year can't be worse than last year. HNY to yourself.
As you say, even with OoH sales pretty much decimated on each lockdown, Vimto still holds up well. Also, NICL cash generation is impressive as you would expect with such a high return on capital. This is definitely a share to hold for the long term. Not sure you will get in at £8 though.
I could be wrong, but I reckon we should build on this price as the company has demonstrated its resilience in difficult times, and hopefully we will emerge from lockdown in the coming months enabling many families to get out and about. There has been a lot of discretionally cash not spent on meals, trips, theme parks etc, last year. The underlying strength of VImto brand, coupled with a a strong recovery in the OoH market should see a good 2021.
Hi Wigan...
Yes...held well considering. I think the trimming of wages etc will show in the next financials...Vimto is a really strong product no matter what is thrown at it !! Still looking for the 8-pound entry, but product holding its own so wait and see STILL !!! Just wish I could fathom the triggers for +/- £2 here ! good luck and HNY
Hi Fred, hope all is well.
Interesting time for NICL. I have increased my holding over the last couple of months as I did anticipate a gradual recovery, however seems there is some consistent selling. I've decided to treat this as a genuine seller who wants to reduce, which is fine and in small low volume companies like NICL the s can have an exaggerated impact. We will see.
I was encouraged by the ability to generate cash during the Q2 lockdown, just shows how strong the Vimto brand is. Q3 shows further cash generation equal to the 28p dividend paid, which is a really resilient performance.
It is interesting to note the family have nominated second family member as a non exec. I guess that's ok as the family own ~35% of the company. Also, interesting to note that same director has pledged a high percentage of his personal share holding to a bank, in return for a loan. Maybe he's buying a splendid new pad. Or maybe he will use that £5 - 6 M he has borrowed to increase his stake in the company.
I look forward to the provisional results early January, and I suspect the market will respond accordingly. We will see.
layoffs never good.
shall await new yr to see if this has bottomed out before hopefully entering here...lots of derisking going on in the background so a little too volatile to jump onboard, hoping it will settle by easter. gla all holders
personally not putting vimto in that bracket..an indian summer here can change all expectations. having a nice run on zoetic at the mo...hopefully move some funds to here !! gla
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jul/23/new-rules-on-junk-food-ads-could-threaten-uk-economic-recovery
Exact details tbc, but may impact the business I imagine?
No position.
HI Fred, let's see what happens tomorrow. I suspect that the interims will be better than expected, however I could be wrong of course. If I'm right then I would expect a fairly decent rise over the next few months and a dividend payment to0 be reinstated.
still a 70p spread...........someone does not want me aboard here lol.......never known a company to jump aboard like this !!!!!!
good stuff Wigan...really struggling to get aboard, low sp, but 50-70 spread ridiculous. I missed the 10p spread not long ago, thought sp may dip, which it did !! I think this has floated around at this low sp for long enough now, time to kick on, unless there is any other hidden news from the Emirates !! good luck pal
HI Fred
Spread Bet is ok, just around £1500 in the blue at the moment. It wasn't a big trade, but I thought that there would be a £5K opportunity following company results, and then if I held maybe £15k after interims if Saudi trading not too bad after all.
NICL do seem to be quick to warn of any trading hiccup, they did this a couple of years ago when they lost the court case re swapping distributors, only for the share price to recover quickly. I traded around £30K on that one.
jeeeez............I hold my hands up here, ever known an sp to be so volatile and unpredictable.!!! Almost jumped aboard with a spread of 10,, but doubts over further drops, was right. Maybe small buys on the drops, but the spread of over 30 kicks in !! So difficult. How is the spread going Wigan ? Just need a lucky ay off work, low sp, and low spread......pigs may fly !!! gla
hi Wigan
hmmm, spread betting, not too sure about that !! However, this sp just slightly too volatile at the mo, even though the spread was tempting me aboard last week ! off work tomorrow, so may free up some funds just in case and keep an eye out here, still think there are bargain prices to be had here......but a positive update could put paid to that ! good luck.
fatprofits, you may well have outdone me at those prices, we shall see : )
I got some at 1339 and 1339.5.
Ordinary shares.
Hi Fred,
Yeah. I have started to build a position via Spread Betting today whilst the SP is at a low point, and the spread has been around 20 (ish). After a few "back of a fag packet" analysis sessions, I can't believe that the tax increase in Saudi will have such a material effect on earnings as the Market is signalling.
I suspect that in worst case 2020 earnings might be flat, although on a less drastic appraisal I think they should beat 2019 earnings. We shall see. Either way, I think they will likely recover as the year progresses. Of course, I could be wrong :-)
good spread today...................
On that very note, grabbed a few under £14.
And yes, totally agree with your post.
I would suggest that a little diligence required when purchasing NICL, as the spread can be very wide at times. However, I spotted it at only 10p yesterday for a few hours. No point buying when spread is 70 - 80.